POY: Clemson +1 at Cal

I have watched every Cal game this year and the O-line is not doing a good job protecting JKS. Clemson has athletes and I think this is a bad match up for Cal where JKS will be under pressure all day and the run game will have a hard time moving the ball.

Keep in mind Clemson has not looked very good either and they are starting a freshman QB who has not looked good. However, I think Clemson will have success simply running the ball against Cal in the same way UCLA was able to run at will against Cal in week 1.

At the end of the day, there is a mismatch in terms of athletic ability here. Also, Clemson has more continuity where as Cal has the first time HC, first time OC, and first time DC which has been showing. The offensive play calling has been fairly predictable and has not been very innovative.

Last week Cal was favored -58 against Wagner and I faded them there. Wagner ended up losing by 42.

The week before that, Cal was massively outgained by Syracuse (437 yards for Cuse vs 249 yards for Cal) and only won that game because Cal was able to generate 3 turnovers to get a +3 in turnover margin and still barely win the game by 3. If that game was played 10 times, Cuse would have won that game 8 or 9 times out of the 10.

The week before that, UCLA was able to run on Cal at will getting 277 rushing yards and JKS was pressured all game long. Think we see a similar thing here against Clemson.

This is a max play for me and will very likely be my largest play of the year.

I like it a lot, and I also like the U50.5.....neither team will have a ton of success thru the air and neither team wants to go fast.....may do the 1st H U25.5 instead of game to remove any threat of OT beating me....  I think this game sees the clock moving pretty fast.

CB

Glad you like it also Train. Hadn't thought about the total but that's a good point. I may jump on the under with you also.

Every season for the last 5 it seems, Clemson plays a top 10 team, gets spanked, goes on the road and starts to win fairly easily. 

I think you are onto something here and being a Cal homer, I will take your word for it, good call 

Nice write up still will be a long trip for Clemson into the left wing lions tigers radical anarchist den. That's why they play the game. Still value your insight over my instincts along with Train. I enjoy betting against any California university program being a generational native California in a foreign land now. Good luck 

@CalBear2009

 Bol this week CB

@MatthewJL46

 Because the buffalo are gone?

Good luck CB.  

FWIW, it is not often I come across a play I like this much hence the POY title. Anyone who follows me knows when I post a POY, it really is a POY for me.

@CalBear2009  ........  wishing you the best on your play.. seems you have been keeping a good eye on cal...    

@River_fish

 Because a lot of things are gone. 

I was already liking this when it came out, now I love it seeing you see things the same.

Plus the Clemson rook qb woke up that 2nd half and played very well, night and day better then he had. Think that will be huge for his confidence and belief going forward.

I think market perception is still low on Clem, makes a great buy opportunity  

@pa2918

Glad you liked it as well before you saw my post.  Cal looks like they need more time to get things together over there with the HC, OC, and DC all in their roles for the first time. Haven't been impressed at all with the play calling and in game adjustments. But it is the O-line that is the most glaring issue imo. Going up against an athletic team like Clemson should spell trouble.

And on the defensive side, Cal's run D has not been very good nor has there been much of a pass rush. Again, going up against a more athletic team spells trouble.

Good luck Cal   

This game wasn’t even on my radar but I trust your knowledge on this Cal team. 

Clemson -1.5 now

938 am eastern friday... at fd... little odd ? ... clem -1-  yet clem ml is -108 and cal ml is -111 ? ... i did use clem in some plays  

Good luck!! 

My main concern is Clemson qb making his first road start. And they are on the West Coast which isn't something they are used to. I see no examples of Clemson playing a West Coast game in the last few years so that part i don't like. Otherwise i like your analysis and thanks for sharing. Fwiw they did fly out there on Wednesday so will have two nights sleep to adjust. I'm undecided on this game rn but good luck 

Best of luck..... I hope it hits for you.... My concern would be Clemson looking ahead to Miami next week. Miami being more of a long time rival and , obviously,  a top tier team

Theyre not good enough to be looking ahead to anyone. 

Clemson line is now up to -2.5. That's 3.5 pts of value if anyone followed and was able to get +1.

Other plays for this game:

Clemson/Cal under 51 (small)

Cal team total under 24.5 (medium)

@River_fish

 Weak Clown. I left that crap CA too. It’s trash now. Talk about what you known about idiot. Oh wait that’s  nothing. I forgot. 

So you caught my attention, I asked a friend of mine earlier if he had seen Cal play, he hadn't and neither have I but I have seen Clemson including the entire last game against my boys UNC, aargh. UNC had their way with them the first half but from mid 3rd quarter to the end of the game it truly did a 180, Clemson started running the ball, QB hit key passes, they became the more physical team unlike the first half where Carolina pushed them around. My point here is they may have found something and the momentum from that win could bode well for Dabo's boyz this week, they're still riding it I believe. You've been around Covers a minute, respect, going against your team, you know your team, speaks volume, I'm on it, Good luck!!!