Phillies vs Dodgers in NLCS who ya got?

Quote Originally Posted by Stuckey:

Oh, and before I forget...

You said above:  It makes about as much sense as betting your house on St. Louis, as some schlub wanted us to do last week.


Who gives a fuck if that guy was wrong?  People can't make predictions?  That is what this forum is for.  People take a stand and give their reasons.  Don't shit on him because he was wrong.  I take stands and am wrong all the time.    You act like you know everything about baseball.  You said the Rocks had a pitching advantage in every game Ubaldo pitches and you saw them winning in 4.  So, like I said, one of us is wrong.  We have strong opinions.  Let's let them play it the fuck out.

Quote Originally Posted by TigerPawsSC:



I did say that. When I said it, Hamels was slated as the game one starter. Ubaldo Jimenez is a better pitcher than Cole Hamels.

He's not (yet) a better pitcher than Cliff Lee. Lee was given the nod the next day, so that obviously changes the dynamics a little bit. Ubaldo Jimenez over Cole Hamels is a no brainer. Over Cliff Lee? Not so much.

And I never said the Rockies would "win" in 4. I said they had a chance to win the series. When the pitching matchups changed and the Phillies made the right choice, it changed things a little bit. The Phils won two close games, and the rest is history.

With that said, I've brought hard, cold data to this fight.

You've brought conjecture about the Phillies pitching staff that just isn't true.

Clayton Kershaw, according to the numbers, has been better than Cliff Lee this season by a little margin.

At every single spot in the rotation, the Dodgers have the better arm. The data shows that, and it's been proven over the course of 162 games.

Certainly it's baseball, so anything could happen. But I like to discuss probabilities, not possibilities.

Quote Originally Posted by behdthscene:

Can LAD pitch @PHI and vs. these particular hitters? I don't care what the LAD staff has done vs. COL, STL, or any other team since they are on vacation and not playing in this series. If you take a look at LAD SP and RP, you won't be happy.

 

In addition, I understand that LAD has home field, but Hamels, Happ, and Lee can pitch on the road, which pretty much negates home field.

 

 

 

 

Quote Originally Posted by TigerPawsSC:



It looks like I'm going to have to make someone look silly for the second straight week.

People who don't know much about baseball should stop pretending that they do. I'd also like to hear a response from someone who doesn't a picture of a green bird or the location "Pennsylvania" in their avatar.

Now, let's get to the facts.

Starting pitching even is comical.

I agree! The Dodgers' pitching outclasses the Philly pitching in pretty much every regard.

Starting pitchers ERA:

Dodgers: 3.58
Phillies: 4.29

And because ERA is a pretty incomplete stat, FIP for SP:

Dodgers (3rd in baseball): 3.83
Phillies (20th in baseball): 4.46

Strikeouts/9 innings

Dodgers: 7.54
Phillies: 6.87

Batting average against:

Dodgers: .235
Phillies: .273

Swings outside of the strike zone induced:

Dodgers: 26.9%
Phillies: 24.5%

Contact on outside swings:

Dodgers: 62.5%
Phillies: 65.4%

So, as we see, the Dodgers pitching staff outclassed the Phillies pitching staff in a big way this year in a ton of different categories. Phillies play in a tough ballpark, obviously, but even the park-adjusted stats like the Dodgers' staff a ton more than the Phillies' staff.

You say all we have is Lee.  You guys have nothing.

I wouldn't say that Lee is all but that's pretty close to being right.

Oh, and on to the other point.

FIP:

Clayton Kershaw: 3.08

Cliff Lee: 3.11

It's a wash.

ERA

Kershaw: 2.8

Lee: 3.2

Kershaw strikes out 50% more guys, Lee walks way less guys. Once again, it's a wash.

These are two lefties who were, for all intents and purposes, exactly as effective this season. They did it in different ways, but according to FIP (Fielding independent pitching), they were the same amount of good.

Hamels, our clear cut second, is better than any one of your starters and absolutely kills the Dodgers.

No. He's not.

Hamels FIP:

3.72

Clayton Kershaw FIP: 3.08, Billingsley FIP: 3.82, Wolf FIP: 3.96, Vicente Padilla FIP (in 7 starts): 3.40

Hamels ERA:

4.32

Kershaw ERA: 2.8, Bills ERA: 4.03, Wolf ERA: 3.23, Padilla ERA: 3.20, Kuroda: 3.76

Hamels GB %: 40.4

Kuroda: 49.5%, Padilla: 46.7%, Billingsley: 45.3%, Kershaw: 39.4%, WolfL 39.6%

I've given you 5 starters with an ERA lower than Hamels' ERA. I've given you guys with better FIP numbers. I've given you a laundry list of guys who get more ground balls.

So, like I said, you're clearly wrong about Cole Hamels.

Blanton, Pedro and Happ have been consistent all year.

Inconsequential. They've been consistent enough to be a part of a starting rotation that ranks 20th out of 30 ML teams in FIP.

You guys have ZERO consistency in your rotation.

This doesn't even make sense. The Dodgers led the big leagues in ERA this year by like .3. They were a third of a run better than every other team in the majors.

"Consistency"? I'll just take being good.

Here you once again prove that you don't know what the hell you're talking about. If the Phillies were "consistent" in their pitching staff, it was "consistently" mediocre.

You don't post the majors' lowest ERA (by a ton) without being consistently GOOD.

Starting pitching: HUGE Phillies advantage

ERA: Phillies: 4.29, Dodgers: 3.58
FIP: Phillies: 4.46, Dodgers: 3.83

I think we've proven that this is a blatant lie. If anything the Dodgers pitching is an advantage in this series.

Starting lineup: COMICAL Phillies advantage

wOBA:

Phillies: .340
Dodgers: .331

OBP

Phillies: .334
Dodgers: .346

The Phillies have the better offense...slightly. When you take into account park effects, it's pretty close. This is hardly what you'd call a "comical" advantage.

Intangibles/Experience: Phillies advantage

Leave it to someone who doesn't really know what they're talking about to think that intangibles play a role in who wins baseball games.

Honestly, what the hell does this even mean?

I also don't think the fact that Jimmy Rollins played in the World Series last year is going to have anything to do with how well he plays in the NLCS this year.

Do you also believe in the Easter bunny? Santa Claus? Ferries? Dragons?

Home field: Yes, you have it, but the Phils are the best road team in baseball

True, until you consider that they were 35-13 against:

Florida, Cincy, Mets, Pirates, Zona, San Diego, Toronto, and Washington.

Sweet, they piled up a ton of road wins against the worst teams in the NL and an AL East bottom feeder.

Phils in six.

Fitting. When all evidence shows that the Dodgers are the better team overall here, choose the other side. It makes sense.

The Dodgers win the most games in the NL in the toughest division in the NL. They've got better starting pitching AT THE TOP and top to bottom, they've got an offense that's only slightly worse, and they've got a bullpen that's markedly better...oh yeah, plus they get to play at home. But pick the Phillies. It makes about as much sense as betting your house on St. Louis, as some schlub wanted us to do last week.

/I win.