Updated record: 39-15-1
Last 3 plays for tonight.
Twins ML -105
Phillies f5 -0.5 Alt line +125
Phillies/Twins o8.5
Staying away from the Dodgers game but would lean strongly Brewers f5. Sasaki can be a liability mid game so innings 4-6 has been his vulnerable side.
Nola boasts a competitive 4.68 F5 ERA over his last 5 outings, including giving up 2 or fewer F5 runs in two of his last three games. He is doing his job early. Taj Bradley is pitching to a 4.07 F5 ERA over his last 5 games. More alarmingly, he has surrendered 3, 3, and 5 earned runs in the F5 window in three of those starts. Also Bradley is walking nearly 5 batters per 9 innings since the All-Star break. If he walks hitters like Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper early, he is setting himself up for a high-stress, high-pitch-count 1st or 2nd inning.
The top of the Phillies' lineup doesn't just match up well on paper—they have historically crushed him, batting .300 with a 1.064 OPS against him. Schwarber and Trea Turner already have home runs off him.
However full game I will back the Twins, The Phillies woke up in St. Louis this morning, played a physical, exhausting game against the Cardinals, boarded a flight to Iowa, and immediately had to gear up for a major nationally broadcasted event on Netflix. Since this will be televised, I expect both teams to rally for runs.
My play on Twins ML ignores the early frames and focuses on the long game. Aaron Nola's bloated 5.47 ERA will be tested by a surging Minnesota offense that boasts a 119 wRC+ over the last week. Even if the Phillies manufacture an early lead, they are playing on zero rest after traveling from St. Louis on game day. As Nola hitting a wall third-time-through connects with a fatigued Phillies bullpen, Minnesota's relentless plate discipline (10.7% walk rate) is poised to take over the back half of this game.
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35 
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Great write up thanks again. Excellent run keep it up. 
40 
looks 40-18 run where the fk have i been 
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