Going to throw 10 units on this parlay, and then 2 units on the straight bets
Marlins ML (+100) — @ Reds, Great American Ball Park
My model actually leans Miami here (~54.7%) even though it’s priced as a coinflip (MIA -105 / CIN -115). Pitching is Alcantara (13-6, 3.52) against Chase Burns (13-2, 2.61), Burns is legit, so this isn’t a soft spot, but Great American is a bandbox and at +100 im getting a fair number on the side the market prefers
Tigers ML (-130) — vs White Sox, Comerica Park
The White Sox aren’t necessarily the dumpster fire I kept thinking they were earlier, they’re 62-57, actually a better record than Detroit at 60-61. Detroit’s favored on Jackson Jobe and home field in a pitcher’s park, and the model backs it (Tigers ~59.6%).
Blue Jays ML (+135) — vs Yankees, Rogers Centre
Toronto throws Shane Bieber, who’s been a disaster (5.48 ERA, 16 hits and 10 runs over his last three starts, first percentile in expected ERA), while the Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole (3.35, and a 2.72 ERA over his last seven starts). What makes the dog live is the injuries: the Yankees are without both Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, and just got shut out 1-0 by Seattle. Toronto (59-64) just took three of four from Boston. Verdict: it’s a live +135 dog purely because NY’s lineup is gutted, it’s a play im more than happy to take
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