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Prospect
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Posted: #751
KCsFinest829 19-21 -198$

This is probably my favorite card of the year. Going with two I am extremely confident in and one that is more of a risk but great value.

BAL Orioles ML -123

Tampa has really, really struggled with their bats this year. The opposite can be said for the most part about baltimore. I love Arrieta in this spot.

SF Giants ML +105

Zito has really impressed me this season and the Brewers have been one of the most disappointing teams for me this year both pitching and hitting wise. 

KC Royals ML +165

This line is so inflated it is ridiculous. Yes Atlanta is great, but they have only really played one decent series (Washington) and I'm not nearly as high on washington as everyone else around here is. Guthrie has been an inning eater and I expect a lot of the same here. I expect a close game today one run either way and a ton of value.

A couple of random notes. Under in the first game of Colorado/NYM intrigues me. Winds of around 20MPH blowing at the hitter and the weather should decrease the long ball greatly. Yesterday I like the Mets in this one, can't pull the trigger today because I'm not sure they can get the homers they rely on but still have a better pitching matchup.

I still see a lot of value in Houston with the huge number. Just don't think this series warrants a 2:1 favorite in any game.
 
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Posted: #752
There is an interesting reverse line movement associated with that SF Giants game.

Unless there is a SF player injured I'm unaware of?
 
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Posted: #753
Quote Originally Posted by Goolay:

There is an interesting reverse line movement associated with that SF Giants game.

Unless there is a SF player injured I'm unaware of?

Not that I know of. RLM is something to be aware of but not something that should get you off a play completely. The Giants are one of the teams that I see RLM with more often than others. NOt concerned by it.
 
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Posted: #754
washhead 4-6-1 -250$

Under 7.0 SEA Mariners - DET Tigers +100

Detroit can score some runs, so I was initially thrown by this low number, but I like it quite a bit.  Fister has been pitching very well for Detroit and he should dominate the Mariners, who have scored 3 or fewer in 10 of 14 games so far.  Harang pitches very well at Safeco, giving up just 1 run in his last 20 innings there.  Detroit is playing just its second night game all season, and they only scored 3 runs in their other night game. 
 
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Posted: #755
Eryximaque 3-2 -23$

BAL Orioles -122

Baltimore did well Vs Boston on the road, tonight home with Arieta should be fine.

 
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Posts: 442
Posted: #756

Musicmatt1  30-13-1  +1305$

 

WAS Nationals  ML  -170

 

TEX Rangers  ML  -130

 

DET Tigers  ML  -165

 

Nationals let Zimmerman complete the game last night to give their bullpen a much needed break.  Harren has only pitched 9 total innings in 2 starts.  I don't see him piling up too many wins this season, so playing the Marlins is about as good as you can get.

 

They say inner league play hurts the American League road team by not having a DH.  I think it can help as well, putting the DH in a pinch hit situation that benefits your team.  I also think Holland finally gets a win after going 0-1 in 2 quality starts.

 

Fister started his career in Seattle and had a better record at Safeco in his time there.  It seems noone wanted to claim Harrang and I think that moving around cannot help his preparation for this start.  I feel like making your first start against a team that has 68 runs through 12 games is a not a winning combination.
 
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Posted: #757
Not sure it matters because I'm not playing this game but in my notes I talked about the wind in the Mets/Rockies game. Wind has shifted and is now blowing out to left field. Makes me lean Mets.
 
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Posted: #758
greengiants 19-22 -362$

Under 7 ATL Braves - KC Royals -110

Since Guthrie has been with the royals every time one of his starts went over the next start went under, well his last start went over, I expect both pitchers to be on point tonight and keep the game close to give both teams a chance to win.This should be a one run game, 3-2, could go either way.

Under 8 CIN Reds - PHI Phillies +100

Bailley usually bouncesback with a quality start afeter being hammered.I was originally going to go with the reds -1, but since this season I have been right with my bounceback starters with them giving quality starts,  they have usually been running into another starter who pitches just as well or better, The ump also is making me take the under here, Bell is usually a under ump and all 3 of his games so far went over but all of his previous games with both pitchers have gone under total.

ARI Diamondbacks ML +115

A lot of the yankee hitters are hitting under the mendoza line vs. McCarthy and I like the arizona bats to tee off vs. a shaky Nova who has a ERA around 5 at home.
 
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Posted: #759
Quote Originally Posted by KCsFinest829:


Not that I know of. RLM is something to be aware of but not something that should get you off a play completely. The Giants are one of the teams that I see RLM with more often than others. NOt concerned by it.

This is a great point but it should make you double check you've looked at all possible outcomes.

If we take Sunday's Reds/Pirates game as an example...

I am not sure where the "fix" comes in on any sport, but it would make sense to go for pitchers.  Zito has had 2 great starts so far not allowing a run, BUT he has only gone 7 innings in each of those starts.  At some point, it is safe to assume he will hand the ball off.

I am not saying to play Brewers in this situation but 4 games decided by 1 run in Chicago shows their games could go any way (and have).
 
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Posted: #760
Quote Originally Posted by natalieportman9:

Good cap on the Oakland Over Greengiant. I definitely got my eye on that now.

Thanks Mr.dustinpedroia( didn't feel right calling you Mr.nathalieportman9 as nathalie is defenitly not a mister lol), yeah well the A's have been litterally destroying lefties so far this season, I believe they are hitting over .300 and averaging close to 9 runs per 9 innings against lefties.They are facing a righty tonight so I laid off the over, thinking I could see a 5-1 game just like I could see a 8-3 game.Glad I could contribute something to the thread as my capping season has not had the start I was expecting...
 
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Posted: #761
AshyLarryMP 20-22-2 -$548

STL Cardinals -1.5 +110

TEX Rangers ML -121

OAK Athletics -1.5 -110

fading jonathon sanchez.. enough said

after watching every game that sf-chc series.. the cubs have talent, but they completely lack fundamentals.. they will make over throws, boot groundballs.. throw countless pass balls behind home plate, balk in the winning run.. they hardly even do the little things correct.. this will lose them a lot of games.. today their team just doesn't match up.. hollands better pitcher against weaker lineup and it'll show today.

oakland A's because of course the astros, but Aj Griffins a stud.. i find him to be their best pitcher, albeit the whole A's staff is loaded with young studs, Aj Griffins super consistent and will shut down OAK.. OAK scores 3-4 and -1.5 is good. also Astros bullpen getting worn down.. bedard .1ip yesterday..they burnt a whole Long Reliever and couple more.


 
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Posted: #762
Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:


Thanks Mr.dustinpedroia( didn't feel right calling you Mr.nathalieportman9 as nathalie is defenitly not a mister lol), yeah well the A's have been litterally destroying lefties so far this season, I believe they are hitting over .300 and averaging close to 9 runs per 9 innings against lefties.They are facing a righty tonight so I laid off the over, thinking I could see a 5-1 game just like I could see a 8-3 game.Glad I could contribute something to the thread as my capping season has not had the start I was expecting...


lol me too buddy.. me too.. i look on brightside though.. im -$598 so far so if you faded me you're doing pretty ok! ... 
but in all reality i feel both our picks have been better than records indicate.. i mean my last 2 reds losses have been frustrating! vs pitt then under 3.5 runs vs cliff.. 0-0 7th then bam 4 runs lol.. but it's april lots of season left! good luck today man, like the picks hope we turn it around together. 
 
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Posted: #763
Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:


Thanks Mr.dustinpedroia( didn't feel right calling you Mr.nathalieportman9 as nathalie is defenitly not a mister lol), yeah well the A's have been litterally destroying lefties so far this season, I believe they are hitting over .300 and averaging close to 9 runs per 9 innings against lefties.They are facing a righty tonight so I laid off the over, thinking I could see a 5-1 game just like I could see a 8-3 game.Glad I could contribute something to the thread as my capping season has not had the start I was expecting...

Those are the kinds of split stats I like to bet on!  Good eye  
 
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Posts: 5295
Posted: #764
1    33-28       +335$

2    24-18       +337$

3    16-18        -349$

4    17-4-1    +1476$

5    20-11-1    +992$

6    21-8       +1356$

7    14-20-1     -919$

8     12-16       -538$

9     8-20-1      -1431$

10   20-7-2     +1230$
 
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Posted: #765
11   11-13-6     -178$

12    14-9-1     +380$

13    13-9-2     +227$

14     10-17      -938$

15    10-12-3    -313$

--------------------------------------------------------------

Total  243-210-18   +1667$
 
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Posted: #766
So far:

Mavin's NBA and MLB contest's Super Handicappers (order by earnings):

1. SimonDog 31-12-2                +1812$    (MLB)

2. Turbovtk  39-23-2                  +1370$    (NBA)

3. phixer 29-14-2                       +1360$    (NBA)

4. Musicmatt1  30-13-1            +1305$    (MLB)

5. KingMidasTouch  35-20-2   +1300$    (NBA)


                    164-82-9     +7147$
 
Prospect
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Posted: #767
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:


This is a great point but it should make you double check you've looked at all possible outcomes.

If we take Sunday's Reds/Pirates game as an example...

I am not sure where the "fix" comes in on any sport, but it would make sense to go for pitchers.  Zito has had 2 great starts so far not allowing a run, BUT he has only gone 7 innings in each of those starts.  At some point, it is safe to assume he will hand the ball off.

I am not saying to play Brewers in this situation but 4 games decided by 1 run in Chicago shows their games could go any way (and have).

I'm not following you. So what if Zito hands the ball off. One of the best closers in the league in Sergio Romo who has the most saves in the league. In my opinion the San Fran pitching staff as a whole (starters and relief) are the best in the business. It's the offense that struggles more.
 
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Posted: #768
Giants do seem to love 1 run games.. Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow call Giants Baseball "torture" lol. cause every game comes down to it late, with many emotions involved. and of course 1 run games can go either way.. but based off their record and 2 of past 3 world series we do tend to win most of them..But to musicmatts point, just because you win most of them doesn't mean you can't drop a game in milwaukee.
if my memory is correct giants always love to hit in milwaukee, something about the stadium brings the bats out, but giants also tend to struggle first 2 times around the order vs pitchers they don't have much history against (peralta).. so i'm interested to see how that dynamic plays out.
and if my memory also serves me correct, zito hasn't fared very well vs the brewers in his career, they work count vs him very well. granted zitos better now than he ever was as a giant before, i just feel some runs being scored today by both teams.. if it's a 1 run game, i see it being like 5-4 kind of game. 
but if giants come out flat vs peralta like we usually do vs people they don't know about.. they'll probably lose.. i don't see zito going 7ip 1 er in this game.. if he does i'll be super impressed!
 
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Posted: #769
natalieportman9 22-20 +360

Over 8.5 STL Cardinals - PIT Pirates -115

Sanchez is just a wild pitcher.  High ERA and WHIP for a long time now.  Pirates lineup has great numbers vs Westbrook. Pirates have been one of the hotter hitting teams lately.  

PIT Pirates TT Over 3.5 -130

Westbrook is having a great start to the year, but has his struggles in Pittsburgh.  The Cards' bullpen allowing a lot of late inning runs as well.  Hot Pirate lineup with a good matchup.

BOS Red Sox ML -114

Great matchup here for the Red Sox lineup coming off a rare sweep of Tampa.  Ubaldo bad splits and not good numbers of late from the Indians' bullpen.  Both teams not hitting too well, edge to Red Sox' bullpen.

 
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Posted: #770
Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:



lol me too buddy.. me too.. i look on brightside though.. im -$598 so far so if you faded me you're doing pretty ok! ... 
but in all reality i feel both our picks have been better than records indicate.. i mean my last 2 reds losses have been frustrating! vs pitt then under 3.5 runs vs cliff.. 0-0 7th then bam 4 runs lol.. but it's april lots of season left! good luck today man, like the picks hope we turn it around together. 

Ha I would never think about fading you brother!I like your card too tonight, rereading my reasoning for not taking the over in the Oakland game makes me think I shoulda made a play on the A's like you did.But my plays are in and I feel good about them. I think we got this tonight!

 
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Posted: #771
Quote Originally Posted by natalieportman9:


Those are the kinds of split stats I like to bet on!  Good eye  

 
Prospect
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Posts: 25
Posted: #772
Musicmatt1, will play do you the best one is...taking Washington to win or Detriot to win...thanks in advance
 
Rookie
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Posted: #773
Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:

Giants do seem to love 1 run games.. Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow call Giants Baseball "torture" lol. cause every game comes down to it late, with many emotions involved. and of course 1 run games can go either way.. but based off their record and 2 of past 3 world series we do tend to win most of them..But to musicmatts point, just because you win most of them doesn't mean you can't drop a game in milwaukee.
if my memory is correct giants always love to hit in milwaukee, something about the stadium brings the bats out, but giants also tend to struggle first 2 times around the order vs pitchers they don't have much history against (peralta).. so i'm interested to see how that dynamic plays out.
and if my memory also serves me correct, zito hasn't fared very well vs the brewers in his career, they work count vs him very well. granted zitos better now than he ever was as a giant before, i just feel some runs being scored today by both teams.. if it's a 1 run game, i see it being like 5-4 kind of game. 
but if giants come out flat vs peralta like we usually do vs people they don't know about.. they'll probably lose.. i don't see zito going 7ip 1 er in this game.. if he does i'll be super impressed!

Awsome info on the giants Ash!
 
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Posted: #774
16/1

SimonDog 31-12-2  +1812$

WAS Nationals  ML  -165

TEX Rangers    ML  -133

UND 7 KC Royals- ATL Braves  -110

Musicmatt1  30-13-1  +1305$

 

WAS Nationals  ML  -170

 

TEX Rangers  ML  -130

 

DET Tigers  ML  -165


natalieportman9 22-20 +360


Over 8.5 STL Cardinals - PIT Pirates -115

PIT Pirates TT Over 3.5 -130

BOS Red Sox ML -114

Eryximaque 3-2 -23$

BAL Orioles -122

KCsFinest829 19-21 -198$

BAL Orioles ML -123.

SF Giants ML +105

KC Royals ML +165

washhead 4-6-1 -250$

Under 7.0 SEA Mariners - DET Tigers +100

greengiants 19-22 -362$

Under 7 ATL Braves - KC Royals -110

Under 8 CIN Reds - PHI Phillies +100

ARI Diamondbacks ML +115

AshyLarryMP 20-22-2 -$548

STL Cardinals -1.5 +110

TEX Rangers ML -121

OAK Athletics -1.5 -110

 
 
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Posts: 467
Posted: #775
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:

I can tell you guys about one very solid stat which is taken from observing the way you guys pick the games. 

Those who make the homework early and do not get influenced by either what media (which is usually biased in gambling related subjects) tries to project about certain games and the "last minute injuries and scratches", or do not put up two more games after losing the first pick (aka chasing) - are solid and clearly on a winning side (SimonDog and Musicmatt - both post early and after they have their picks set based on the whole series projections - that is my guess). 
This is a simple battle between two basic approaches :a gambling addict who needs action and thrill at all times and a serious handicappers who's thrill is counting the money at the end of the day. Well, guess who is Vegas' darling and who has to explain where the extra money came from?
  Marvin I thought I have to make 3 picks every single day ? 
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