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I hear the word "Capping"

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Posts: 155

Alinamei04

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2009

Posts: 478

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:11 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

alot in baseball. Don't you people realize that in baseball it's a 50/50 chance of winning on every game played. You are just wasting your time, "Capping". Example, yesterday with Little Timmy L pitching, the Giants are still only going to win that game between 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5 or 6 times out of 10. The Nationals are going to beat the Philllys 40%-60% of the time they play them. The Phillys are going to beat the Braves 45%-55% of the time, and so on and so on. Find a team you like, don't look at the line, and play it. Of games played this year won, Favs 102,or 59%, Dogs, 70, or 41%, pretty close. Next month it will be 53% Fav winners, 47% Dog winners. So "Cap" away.

ratherBgambling

Hall of Fame

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 27235

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:13 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

You are making the same mistake over and over and over - really making yourself look pretty ignorant to how stats work.

The idea isnt that out of 172 games there has been 102 won by favs - thus making RANDOMLY betting on favs or dogs a breakeven proposition.

THE IDEA IS THAT THROUGH "CAPPING" YOU CHOOSE WHICH FAVS OR DOGS TO BET ON WHICH DAYS.

Get it? If you blindly bet all dogs or all favs - you will just about break even over the course of the season and your numbers are correct. But if you are a "capper", you pick and choose WHICH dogs or favs to bet daily.

Back to my rain example - If you lived in that city that it rained 50% of the days, but I allowed you to bet daily at even money if it was going to rain today - are you telling me you couldnt do that and make money?

sparty444

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 10039

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:13 AM ET #28

Capping is looking for value in the line offered based on your own perception of what the actual odds really are. If you see value on either side...its the better side to wager...but not always the winning side.

The issue is our perception of actual odds varies from person to person. You might look at a line and see value and I might not based on numerous factors.

If you want to think capping is b.s.....then so be it

I just look at it as an extension of common sense

Ciao

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 692

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:19 AM ET #29

You have to look at and take advantage of situations, then pounce on them. There are certain pitchers to fade, others that get on a roll and cant lose. Also, there are ballparks such as US Cellular Field that produce overs like crazy against teams like the Red sox and yankees. I believe that if you pick 1-2 of these situations per day, you can be successful over the long haul.

pickem4life14

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 590

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:19 AM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Really pretty ignorant, and shows a tremendous lack of understanding of how statistics and math work.

If it rains 50% of the time over a course of a year in a given city - does that mean that you shouldnt turn on the radar to see if it is going to rain TODAY??

Your example of the Giants yesterday is laughable. "Between 4 and 6 times" out of 10? Well the line said exactly 6.3 times - so if the giants are going to win an average of 5 of those times, why wouldnt you bet the dodgers? This is EXACTLY the edge that all MLB "cappers" are looking for.

Back to school buddy.

The lines don't predict outcomes...you should know that. The 6.3 times from the Giants game yesterday was not trying to predict the outcome over the course of time or for what given day. It was to draw as close to even action as possible. That doesnt take math to understand.

dopalicous

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 3468

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:23 AM ET #31

HappyKane

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 34979

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:34 AM ET #32

Handicapping is rhetoric for fading vanzack & Mr. Bator, 2 forerunning luminaries of the sportsbetting world.

Anytime these guys like something and they decide to post their plays, they tend to lose. Especially when Mr. Bator says he's been studying all night and gives you a 3-page write-up and made Mrs. Bator wait 5 hours in bed for a good shag.

Just something anyone would've noticed over the past 6 years at covers.com. And unfortunately there aren't many times you can fade vanzack because he's only offers impartiality and he's only posting because his mathematical universe is on tilt when there is a storm in the market. Any line that moves 20 cents off basis the dude goes nuts.

goofy

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2006

Posts: 111

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:46 AM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

The golden rule of gambling:

People who have a 3rd grade understanding of math and statistics shouldnt gamble. If you dont know math and statistics and you want to gamble, go educate yourself.

Anybets today?

vanzack

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2001

Posts: 60107

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:52 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by pickem4life14:

Thanks for restating what I posted - dope.

My point was that if the ACTUAL RESULTS are going to be 50%, and you can get better than that on the line, to bet it.

Thanks for the lesson though pal.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.

dcmc34f

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5363

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:54 AM ET #35

For the love of God people, all I'm saying is that out at seasons end, baseball games are a 50/50 proposition. Next, people are going to tell me that the Colts would cover the -18 against the Rams everytime too, when ACTUALLY they would only cover that spread about 50% of time. They would win 90-99% of time, but would cover only around 50%. POST YOU PLAYS.

kaponofor3

Legend

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 35430

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 11:56 AM ET #36

"For the love of God people, all I'm saying is that out at seasons end, baseball games are a 50/50 proposition."

And what people are telling you is that while this may be true, it doesn't mean that every single dog has a 50% chance of winning straight up.

dcmc34f

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5363

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:07 PM ET #37

What does " Rain'" have anything to do with out of 172 games played this year, 102 was won by the Favs? Van, you're not as smart as you think you are. Remember, you are on "Covers", you aren't in a Sociological Forum discussing a theory on human social life behaviour.

dcmc34f

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5363

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:16 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

Handicapping is rhetoric for fading vanzack & Mr. Bator, 2 forerunning luminaries of the sportsbetting world.

Nice,

umgmu

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 47628

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:16 PM ET #39

Looking at Today's card .. IMO , TB at Plus money is a good bet given the strength of their team/pitcher on the mound .. I'll bite.

dcmc34f

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5363

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:22 PM ET #40

When the sky is clear, it is a 100% chance of no rain. When the sky has clouds, then the percentages go down. So, if Timmy L is pitching, and the sky is clear, take Little Timmy L. I guess that's your analogy on "RAIN and betting games.

dcmc34f

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5363

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:25 PM ET #41

Just for the record, yesterday, 7 favs won and 9 dogs won. Wonder how cappers did? Probably today, it will be reversed.

DirtNap

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 392

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:39 PM ET #42

really......bullpens are totally unpredictable

dcmc34f

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5363

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:45 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by DirtNap:

really......bullpens are totally unpredictable

Don't you DARE tell that to the "Cappers", they will be all over you. That's the main reason in what I am trying to say here.

DirtNap

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 392

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:47 PM ET #44

i'm with you dcmc......i understand capping may help...but from what i pick up some of these so-called top cappers on Covers seem to spend an inordinate amount of time and energy pouring over stats...just to end up winning at barely a 50% ...if that...know the sport your wagering on,don't wager too many games,look for value,go with gut feeling,and gamble for recreation.....cuz anyone who says they make a decent living od income over the long haul is full of crap

HappyKane

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 34979

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:58 PM ET #45

Thats why in MLB you can have a 48% success rate and still be on the positive side.

48% in any other sport... you're in limbo.

The secret to making money in MLB is riding out "value" plays, grind out the season by playing 8-10 games per day. In the long run, you might have a 375-388 record but you'll still be making money, granted that most of those "value" plays are underdogs and small faves.

You cannot play 8-10 NBA or NFL games per day like you can in MLB, i think.

mrbillyzeke

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2010

Posts: 70

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 1:02 PM ET #46

YOU have to handicap every game both sides !

I use a simple system in bases learned years ago !

NEVER Bet aginst the streaks ! IF they are Winning bet on them

IF they are losing BET aginst THEM !

Half the money or LESS than half on All Favorites

FULL units or MORE on ALL DOGS !

YOU need TO look at teams with bad bullpens regardless of WHO the Starter IS a Bad Bullpen will destroy YOU in one inning !

WEATHER is also a factor IF you expect rain Delays THEN count on starters being replaced becuse they go cold sitting around and YOU have a differnt game after that long delay !

I prefer to bet on teams with middle starters because then thats when you get offense !

many teams go to patient or something when thier ace is on the mound and they wind up losing games like 2-1 or 3- 2

dcmc34f

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5363

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:03 PM ET #47

Finally, some smart MLB bettors in here. HappyKane and DirtNap. HappyKane, you said it best, VALUE in baseball betting. VALUE is the key to MLB betting

vincenzococotti

Veteran

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 1392

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:52 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

What does " Rain'" have anything to do with out of 172 games played this year, 102 was won by the Favs? Van, you're not as smart as you think you are. Remember, you are on "Covers", you aren't in a Sociological Forum discussing a theory on human social life behaviour.

F u bet them all......what about the odds u give on the favorites that lost ..there are odds in these games......if u can pick the days the dogs will win and pick the days the favorite..s will win u can take 50-50 and turn it into 65-40 ..handicapping allows u to predict who will win when instead of having to take all favorites during the year to hit your so called 50%

Crowkillers

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 32063

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:55 PM ET #49

Is this one of those jokey-joke threads?

atlheatholder

Captain

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 5827

Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 2:57 PM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

alot in baseball. Don't you people realize that in baseball it's a 50/50 chance of winning on every game played. You are just wasting your time, "Capping". Example, yesterday with Little Timmy L pitching, the Giants are still only going to win that game between 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5 or 6 times out of 10. The Nationals are going to beat the Philllys 40%-60% of the time they play them. The Phillys are going to beat the Braves 45%-55% of the time, and so on and so on. Find a team you like, don't look at the line, and play it. Of games played this year won, Favs 102,or 59%, Dogs, 70, or 41%, pretty close. Next month it will be 53% Fav winners, 47% Dog winners. So "Cap" away.

Are you serious? So essentially, I need not look for value in any sort in a line or what my line for a specific game might be - I just need to blindly throw money down on a team that I like.

Horrific information on so many levels.

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