I hear the word "Capping"

New to covers. Been following for awhile.  Since baseball is my fav sport to bet in decided to join to chime in.  I think I know what you are trying to say dmc.  If you look at best teams in baseball, say angels last year who won about 95 of their 163 games, that is still only a roughly 58 % rate of winning.  So considering this, taking the huge line on favs every game is not a good strategy to win money in long run.  It could also lead you to believe even the best teams win 58 percent on any given game.  This is true of course, but keep in mind this is a long term stat measured over course of a season.

Were "capping" or whatever you want to call it comes in is deciding based on game game odds and many factors that change each game, which side is favorable.  You are failing to consider pitching matching ups vs specific teams, different batting lineups, hot and cold streaks, batters vs pitchers, travel, night game followed by day game, teams who have worn out bullpen in previous games etc (i could go on for awhile).  Considering all of these factors + the line i have no doubt in my mind you can pick over 50%.  If you do not believe this you are not putting enough effort and research in to games that you are capping imo. 

As far as capping bullpens. I disagree that is not possible. Take dodgers last year. Was comfortable betting them when I thought a pitcher could deliver a quality start due to their bullpen.  Troncoso/belisario in 7th, sherril in 8th, broxton in 9th. That combo was very good all year.  Various combinations of relievers can be recognized in every team.  I agree while you cant predict every reliever that comes in in every game, you know which teams bullpen is reliable or not.  I hope this helps.

If anyone on covers.com have bullpen handicapping down to a "t", let us know.

Im not exactly sure what he is saying but I think he means the team he thinks should be favored will win 51 percent of the time. 

He made some sense when he said that a sport with a point spread would cover 40-60 percent of the time however I am completely lost on his baseball theories.

There is no way in hell the + money in baseball covers 49 percent of the games.  If this were true every friking bettor in the world would have picked up on this and be betting dogs every day.

People that claim betting is nothing more than a coin flip are the ones that never win and have no idea about the sport they are spending their money on so I generally ignore them.

I am interested in where you are getting this 51 percent number?  Do you even look at the lines or do you just think in your head that the Yankees should be favored over the Red Sox so you keep your numbers that way?

Archive it!!!!!!

ROFLMAO

Welp Bud you better start to condition yourslef to get ready to bunk up with a fella that goes by the name of WhiskeyBadgers in the Archives. See ya there

You 50/50 guys are SOFA KING WE TODD IT

IF what you are saying is true, that at the end of the year it is going to be 50/50, then all you need to do is bet ALL of the dogs everyday!

If baseball is 50/50, and in most cases you are gettting +130 to +170, and in some cases you are getting 200+

So, lets do some simple math - if you guarantee 51/49, and lets just assume that the average dog is +150 (because there are several +200+).

If you lose 51% of the 2430 games, then you lose 1240 units.

If you win 49% of the 2430 games, then you win 1190 games, but since you are betting the DOGS and getting on average +150 per game, then you will win 1785 units for a profit of 545 units per year!

And for you math donkeys out there, that would be a $545,000 yearly profit if you bet a dime per game!

So you 50/50 donks.  Since you are so sure of the 50/50, and the math is obviously pretty easy.  Then you should stop arguing and start betting as much as your book will allow on the dogs!

I realize that I might have confused some math donkeys out there, and they are going to say that the average dog is NOT +150.

SOOOOOOOOOOOO, lets just say the average dog is +120 (which we know the number is much higher than that)

Then you lose 51% of the time -1240 units, and you win 49% of the time at +120 (1190 games) +1388 units.  For a yearly profit of 188 units!

Which once again, would lead to a 6 figure yearly profit by just betting a dime on EVERY dog all year long.  No capping, no thinking, just a dime a dog!

So if you're so sure about it, quit that day job and start betting some dogs

add me as a friend and PM me, we can start tomorrow

Do that research yet?  Still waiting for you to get back to me....

Can you please explain the point of this thread? Their are people wagering on baseball games (like myself and unlike you), that make money not by betting all dogs, but by picking and choosing, and at the end of the year being in the black...so whats wrong with 'capping'?

Who says the average dog is +150?  You just love pulling stats out of your ass.  Stop guessing please.  You have no clue.

If you want to back up the statement you made at least 5 times in this thread, that favs only cover 51% of the games -  I will give you 10 years and 2-1.  And I will find a source to definitively give us the answer.

But please - stop insulting everyones intelligence with your bullshit guesses that you try to pass as facts.

And BTW - you are once again showing how little you understand math and simple concepts like averages.

You cant make the assumptions you make in your example.  It doesnt work that way.  What if small dogs win at a higher percentage than big dogs (likely) - than your average assumptions above are totally incorrect.

Give it up, go buy a math book or go back to school.  You are digging the hole bigger and bigger.

The problem is that you reported opinions as facts.

If you want to start a thread with a theory, or a stated opinion - that is what covers is about.  But you stated MADE UP STATISTICS AS FACTS.  And everyone called bullshit.  Then you backed it up with more made up bullshit, and everyone is calling bullshit again.

Opinions are fine, no matter how stupid.  But misrepresenting facts wont fly.

You can't be serious with this POS thread.

Please do not throw US into YOUR shitty "flip a coin" Mantality, Record, and Approach.

I come to win. Oddly enough Ive gone 5/6 on the season in Baseball. Some days I skip it all together. NBA is money right now and Im killing it but took a tough Phoenix loss last night. I obviously knowthat im not always going to when but at the end of EVERYDAY I am a fucking winner.

I am a winner in leisure, competition, work, and in most things I do. Hell, even when I lose Im a fucking winner.

You obviously have been on the wrong side of a thousand 's.

Perhaps Sports betting is not for you. If someone needs to explain why Away/Home, Injuries, Weather, Sociology, Press, Fans, "Fan Nights" - all play a vital roll in each and every game then you sir are a dumbass.

It could be as simple as knowing Kobe's Bryants FAVORITE place to play is Madison Square Garden and NOT Staples Center. So wager accordingly.

That's part of capping and applies in NBA, MLB, NHL, Nascar, Tennis, Cricket, Curling, Volleyball and virtually every sport in the world....

You either dont do your homework, or you simply dont know how.

Dont be a hater.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UCtdlmSeuw

This pretty much sums it up.

Numbers dont lie.

Jagoffs who would like to bet only dogs can use me exclusively as their  NEW sportsbook.

I will be open for business 24hrs a day.

Call me 1-800-Cant-Win