Do You Want to See a Dead Body?

I went under the hood on Rhett Lowder and there are some numbers that really caught my attention.

5.17 ERA
5.15 xERA
.346 xwOBA
.454 xSLG
90.3 average exit velocity
9.6% barrel rate

His xERA is in the 12th percentile, his whiff rate is in the 12th percentile and his strikeout rate is in the 19th percentile.

Now dig into the arsenal. His most-used pitch is the sinker at 29.1%. Hitters have a .415 xwOBA against it with a 45.4% hard-hit rate and only an 8.1% whiff rate.

His slider is legitimate though. It gets a 33.6% whiff rate with a .299 xwOBA, so I’m not calling this guy a gas can.

But when your ERA and xERA are basically identical and your most-used pitch is getting hit like that, there are some things Arizona should be able to attack.

Diamondbacks lineup is in. Waiting on Cincinnati so I can finish the other half of the matchup and really stress test this thing

@LVTruck

 My last bet I entered was the Mets/White Sox one. I’m still on the fence and may back out of that one.

@LVTruck

Soroka (and Diamondbacks as a whole) very good at home. Best of luck today 

Lineup out brother.

CRU$H THEM TONIGHT. 

Now that Cincinnati’s lineup is out, this is where Arizona gets interesting for me.

The Reds are sending six right handed bats at Michael Soroka, and that lines up well with what he does best. His slurve is around 32% usage and hitters are sitting around a .259 xwOBA against it with a 33.9% whiff rate and over a 40% strikeout rate.

The danger is right at the top with Elly, Sal Stewart and Bleday. Soroka cannot sleepwalk through those three. But once you get deeper into this lineup, I think the matchup starts leaning pretty clearly toward him.

That is a big reason Arizona 1st 5 -0.5 is still sitting at the top of my board.

@LV Truck

Re: Padres F5 O2.5 

Is it Padres (TT) O2.5? I have it at 4.5. Pls. advise.

@LV - What up bud? The interesting thing about Lowder is he’s one of those guys that surprisingly has a lot of good starts. But when he’s bad, he’s real bad, particularly on the road where he’s just 2-7 with an era North of 7. It does appear he’s more likely to be bad Lowder tonight. 

The Cubbies lineup is out. I know nobody trusts Peterson, and I understand why. Anderson is no ordinary rookie either, so I’m not looking to fade the kid just because it’s his debut.

But Chicago’s lineup is built well against a lefty, they’ve been one of the better teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, and Seattle still has some matchup issues on the other side.

I’m not calling it my top spot, but I’m still looking hard at the Cubs at plus money.

@Tecnara1994

 4.5 is FULL GAME the 2.5 is First 5 Innings.

This isn't a posted play from LV he was just giving his advice on another card. Hope this helps. 

F5 is for first five innings. 

This thread is destined for success. Kaufee landed his helicopter from the island and decided to grace us with his presence. 

I always respect his opinion, that’s for damn sure. Nice to see you, my friend.

Remember the epic collapse by Peterson last week we took him…lol, still feeling that one. Good luck, I’m off of this one

Friends...let's focus and pay attention.  You will know when the play(s) come out...

LET'S GO!!!

@LVTruck 

Im ALLIN on this thread so wont be bouncing back & forth tonight..

WE ARE FKN CRU$HING. 

Here’s where I’m at right now.

I definitely liked the Fish 1st 5 and posted about that earlier. I felt like we had a good read on that one, so it was nice to see it work out.

I’ve already shared my thoughts on Arizona and I still like the Cubs. The last game I want to dig into is San Diego tonight. I do like that spot too, so I’ll share a couple thoughts there and then I think we can get this thing locked in without dragging it out all day.

@LVTruck

 LFG.

$ATURDAY NIGHT $HOWDOWN.

LET$ KEEP ON KEEPIN ON. 

The first thing I’m handicapping in the San Diego game is the 40-minute later start than the game currently at the top of my board.

How much additional alcohol am I going to consume during those 40 minutes, and what kind of repercussions am I dealing with tomorrow morning

That’s the first variable in the model

For all newer posters when Kaufee talks I would strongly advise ears wide open and listening intently and taking notes. Top tier wisdom 

@LVTruck

 $HARP AF. 

The second part is the actual baseball handicap. 

I like San Diego because I think Casey Mize gives them the starting-pitching edge, they’re at home, and Minnesota has not traveled particularly well. Kremer’s surface numbers are ugly, although I do respect the fact that he’s pitched better lately, so I’m not treating him like some automatic fade.

San Diego has the better overall setup for me, but I still want the confirmed lineups before I decide exactly where it belongs on the board.

They are confirmed on Rotowire. 

The cubs are interesting too. I mean, I’ll blindly fade a debut for a rookie. They just have never seen a lineup like the big leagues. It’s a huge step up in class

@LVTruck

 Here are the current odds for props on the meat of the Cincy order that you cite FWIW:

E De la C:

Hits   Over .5 -245      Under .5 +182

Total Bases  Over 1.5 +106      Under 1.5 -145

Runs  Over .5 -120      Under .5  -112

Sal Stewart:

Hits   Over.5 -245     Under .5  -173

Total Bases   Over 1.5  +130    Under 1.5  -173

Runs  Over .5  +128    Under .5  -160

Bleday:

 Hits  Over .5  -165     Under .5  +115

Total Bases    Over 1.5  +140     Under 1.5  + 118

Runs  Over .5  +160     Under .5  -221

@LVTruck

 Hoping you bypass the cubs i don't know what to expect from them. Would like it to come  down to either arizona or san diego.