Posted:
#126
One more out.......Then we need a jack......
0
Couple Thoughts
Posted:
#138
Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:
Well, every fucking fear I had in this game manifested into reality. I sure as hell wasn’t laying the big price on the first five money line, so I laid the half run, reduced the juice, and now I’m sitting on the short end of the fucking stick. That’s baseball.
Well, every fucking fear I had in this game manifested into reality. I sure as hell wasn’t laying the big price on the first five money line, so I laid the half run, reduced the juice, and now I’m sitting on the short end of the fucking stick. That’s baseball.
Still one helluva week Truck. Let's get 'er done in the week coming up.
0
Posted:
#146
I understand first five ties happen, and yeah, I look at every wager through a moneyline lens.
But the higher that price gets, the higher the implied win probability I’m paying for. At some point, laying -150 or -160 just to protect against a tie starts creating a completely different longterm math problem.
Sure, every once in a while I’m going to eat a loss like tonight because I laid the half run instead of the bigger moneyline price. That’s part of it.
But over the long run, constantly paying that extra juice adds up fast. I’d rather take the better number when I believe the team should be leading after five and accept that every now and then one of these motherfuckers is going to bite me.
6
Posted:
#147
Quote Originally Posted by LVTruck:
I understand first five ties happen, and yeah, I look at every wager through a moneyline lens. But the higher that price gets, the higher the implied win probability I’m paying for. At some point, laying -150 or -160 just to protect against a tie starts creating a completely different longterm math problem. Sure, every once in a while I’m going to eat a loss like tonight because I laid the half run instead of the bigger moneyline price. That’s part of it. But over the long run, constantly paying that extra juice adds up fast. I’d rather take the better number when I believe the team should be leading after five and accept that every now and then one of these motherfuckers is going to bite me.
I understand first five ties happen, and yeah, I look at every wager through a moneyline lens. But the higher that price gets, the higher the implied win probability I’m paying for. At some point, laying -150 or -160 just to protect against a tie starts creating a completely different longterm math problem. Sure, every once in a while I’m going to eat a loss like tonight because I laid the half run instead of the bigger moneyline price. That’s part of it. But over the long run, constantly paying that extra juice adds up fast. I’d rather take the better number when I believe the team should be leading after five and accept that every now and then one of these motherfuckers is going to bite me.
constantly laying big juice like that sends bettors to the bank for loans 
to pay the man.
1
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