Couple Thoughts

what's wrong with this guy, here?!

@BigEv617

 He’s an ass

Cleveland lineup is out and they’re missing a couple of sticks I expected to see in there. Maybe it’s matchup driven, maybe it’s just a rest spot, but either way this isn’t the lineup I was expecting. I’m going to reassess it before doing anything.

BOL today 

Hey, I’m OK with the moose that moose has been pretty lucky the last couple days..

I’m getting aggravated. Had to pour a drink and it’s only 10 AM in Vegas. Cleveland’s lineup was not what I expected, KC can hit, and while I still think we can get to Lynch, that lineup definitely gave me some pause.

Cleveland is NOT off the board. I’m reevaluating it, but fk man, I was in a groove. Haha

FUCK YOU CLEVELAND! You're fucking up our bags out here 

Exactly and that’s why I keep doing that 

What I’m doing next is going batter for batter and getting under the hood on this Cleveland game  pitcher profiles, Baseball Savant, matchup data, all the wizard shit.

I still think Lynch is hittable. We’ve got some time, so I’m going to dig all the way through it it was kind of my number one position. If you can’t tell him just don’t wanna let it go yet

Cleveland F5 is on my short card 

After digging deeper, I can see what the manager is trying to do here. Lynch has crushed left handed hitters, so this isn’t simply Cleveland missing a couple bats. Lowe and Bazzana are both left handed, and Cleveland has built a lineup that can attack Lynch predominantly from the right side.

DeLauter, Ramirez and Adell have all been very good against lefties, and Martinez has been solid enough.

So yeah, this one is still very much alive. Cleveland F5 stays on the short card.

Thats what I like to hear! I love how the research is now supporting your fav play of the day! Im feeling the GUARDIANS are going to SMASH today and bring us MAJOR BAGS!

I took a deeper look at Lynch, and his four starts this month have gone

1.2 IP, 3 ER
2.1 IP, 3 ER
4.0 IP, 1 ER
4.1 IP, 2 ER

That’s 13.1 innings and 9 earned runs as a starter in August. His overall 2.93 ERA is heavily built from relief work, so as a starter recently, the picture is a lot less 

And he has not completed five innings in any start this year. So on a Cleveland F5 wager, there’s a very realistic chance we get Lynch for 3-4 innings and then a Kansas City middle relief arm in the fifth. Their bullpen entered the series ranked 29th in baseball with a 5.15 ERA.

BOB PLEASE, STFU 

Good things come..to those who wait. 

@LVTruck

 Just having some popcorn buddy

Lv I don’t post but i see your plays thank you

@LVTruck

I’m with you on the Lynch workload. One other thing I noticed that fits the F5 angle, Cleveland’s F5 team total over has hit in 8 of their last 11 at home. KC also has the 3rd-lowest pitching K rate in MLB, so Cleveland should be putting a lot of balls in play against Lynch/the bridge arm. Only thing that gives me some pause is KC is scorching right now and Griffin’s recent form hasn’t been great. Do you think Griffin is the bigger risk to the F5 than Cleveland’s offense?

@DrGame

Yeah, I think Griffin is the bigger risk. The more I dug into Cleveland’s lineup and Lynch’s splits/workload, the less concerned I became about Cleveland generating some offense in the first five.

My bigger concern is exactly what you said  KC is swinging it really well and Griffin hasn’t exactly been lights out lately. I think Cleveland can get to Lynch and possibly that bridge arm. The question for me is whether Griffin can keep KC quiet enough for five innings.

That’s really the part of the handicap drinking on right now 

Griffin’s last three starts have been much better than that ugly 4.05 August ERA makes it look 5 innings, 1 earned at Detroit 6 innings, 1 earned vs San Francisco 5 innings, 2 earned at Colorado. That’s 16 innings and only 4 earned runs across his last three. Cleveland won all three starts

Griffin doesn’t need to be an ace for this bet. If he gives us the version we’ve seen in his last three starts  five innings and 1-2 earned then Cleveland’s matchup against Lynch/bridge relief has a very reasonable chance to win the first five.

On a lighter note, I handicapped college football for about an hour today and felt like I was reading Greek. So I’ll take this baseball frustration any day over the fucking abyss that is Week Zero

Indians then ???