Posted:
#26
Couple Thoughts
Posted:
#32
I’m getting aggravated. Had to pour a drink and it’s only 10 AM in Vegas. Cleveland’s lineup was not what I expected, KC can hit, and while I still think we can get to Lynch, that lineup definitely gave me some pause.
Cleveland is NOT off the board. I’m reevaluating it, but fk man, I was in a groove. Haha
Posted:
#35
What I’m doing next is going batter for batter and getting under the hood on this Cleveland game pitcher profiles, Baseball Savant, matchup data, all the wizard shit.
I still think Lynch is hittable. We’ve got some time, so I’m going to dig all the way through it it was kind of my number one position. If you can’t tell him just don’t wanna let it go yet
Posted:
#36
Cleveland F5 is on my short card 
After digging deeper, I can see what the manager is trying to do here. Lynch has crushed left handed hitters, so this isn’t simply Cleveland missing a couple bats. Lowe and Bazzana are both left handed, and Cleveland has built a lineup that can attack Lynch predominantly from the right side.
DeLauter, Ramirez and Adell have all been very good against lefties, and Martinez has been solid enough.
So yeah, this one is still very much alive. Cleveland F5 stays on the short card.
Posted:
#38
I took a deeper look at Lynch, and his four starts this month have gone
1.2 IP, 3 ER
2.1 IP, 3 ER
4.0 IP, 1 ER
4.1 IP, 2 ER
That’s 13.1 innings and 9 earned runs as a starter in August. His overall 2.93 ERA is heavily built from relief work, so as a starter recently, the picture is a lot less
And he has not completed five innings in any start this year. So on a Cleveland F5 wager, there’s a very realistic chance we get Lynch for 3-4 innings and then a Kansas City middle relief arm in the fifth. Their bullpen entered the series ranked 29th in baseball with a 5.15 ERA.
Posted:
#44
@LVTruck
I’m with you on the Lynch workload. One other thing I noticed that fits the F5 angle, Cleveland’s F5 team total over has hit in 8 of their last 11 at home. KC also has the 3rd-lowest pitching K rate in MLB, so Cleveland should be putting a lot of balls in play against Lynch/the bridge arm. Only thing that gives me some pause is KC is scorching right now and Griffin’s recent form hasn’t been great. Do you think Griffin is the bigger risk to the F5 than Cleveland’s offense?
Posted:
#45
@DrGame
Yeah, I think Griffin is the bigger risk. The more I dug into Cleveland’s lineup and Lynch’s splits/workload, the less concerned I became about Cleveland generating some offense in the first five.
My bigger concern is exactly what you said KC is swinging it really well and Griffin hasn’t exactly been lights out lately. I think Cleveland can get to Lynch and possibly that bridge arm. The question for me is whether Griffin can keep KC quiet enough for five innings.
That’s really the part of the handicap drinking on right now
Posted:
#47
Griffin’s last three starts have been much better than that ugly 4.05 August ERA makes it look 5 innings, 1 earned at Detroit 6 innings, 1 earned vs San Francisco 5 innings, 2 earned at Colorado. That’s 16 innings and only 4 earned runs across his last three. Cleveland won all three starts
Hot Forum Topics
