I am chasing the first to score loses starting tonight on the DET/NYY series. Didn't start previously as I had first to score and ML going same direction.
My other chases have won already and the only two I have left are the home team scores first in the DET/NYY (may not play) series and first to score loses.
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@js4u
I am chasing the first to score loses starting tonight on the DET/NYY series. Didn't start previously as I had first to score and ML going same direction.
My other chases have won already and the only two I have left are the home team scores first in the DET/NYY (may not play) series and first to score loses.
@Shady - I couldn't agree more with low juice chases. Not as nerve wrecking as chasing bleed me out sox at -160 a game (and losing).
Also anything over 3/4 game chase (with low juice) is stupid. even if you are only trying to win 1/2 a unit. In such a case wait out the first few games and THEN start a chase.
@mj - in 09 you would have had a 3 game chase loss when LA swept STL. in 08 tb/bos went to game 6 in 07 nyy/cle chase would have cost you a 4 gamer. in 06 stl/sd chase would have cost you a 4 gamer.
Maybe chasing the away team is a better option? more juice as they are up first, but at least worth a look.
@Air - I have been sharing the chase the away score first and those have hit so now I am looking at home to score first (Hit SF yesterday). You are talking about home team first to score then you are correct in your stats, but not on first to score loses - which I am now chasing on the DET/NYY series. From your look, the home scores first once in first 3 games 6 out of 7 series each year, about 85% success, which I think if fair.
So far I only looked at 2010/2011/2012 completed series and home team scored first in first 3 games 15 out of 18 series (83%). 1 of those was in game 4, 1 in game 5 and the last was the lone away team scored first in all.
My play today is DET/NYY first to score loses +210. Staying around +200, and looking to win $100 my chase will be $50, $75, $115
First to score wins first 3 games of series happened 4 of 18 series since 2010. Only 1 time did first to score won all games in series. 2 lost in game 4 and 1 lost in game 5.
I am sure no trend is perfect all the time, but I like my chances in catching first to score loses at lest 1x during the next 3 of the DET/NYY series (if it goes that far).
Will chase the same in the NL for games 3-5.
As I have said before, this is my first year seriously betting baseball and have learned a lot following this thread.
BOL -
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Quote Originally Posted by Air1:
@Shady - I couldn't agree more with low juice chases. Not as nerve wrecking as chasing bleed me out sox at -160 a game (and losing).
Also anything over 3/4 game chase (with low juice) is stupid. even if you are only trying to win 1/2 a unit. In such a case wait out the first few games and THEN start a chase.
@mj - in 09 you would have had a 3 game chase loss when LA swept STL. in 08 tb/bos went to game 6 in 07 nyy/cle chase would have cost you a 4 gamer. in 06 stl/sd chase would have cost you a 4 gamer.
Maybe chasing the away team is a better option? more juice as they are up first, but at least worth a look.
@Air - I have been sharing the chase the away score first and those have hit so now I am looking at home to score first (Hit SF yesterday). You are talking about home team first to score then you are correct in your stats, but not on first to score loses - which I am now chasing on the DET/NYY series. From your look, the home scores first once in first 3 games 6 out of 7 series each year, about 85% success, which I think if fair.
So far I only looked at 2010/2011/2012 completed series and home team scored first in first 3 games 15 out of 18 series (83%). 1 of those was in game 4, 1 in game 5 and the last was the lone away team scored first in all.
My play today is DET/NYY first to score loses +210. Staying around +200, and looking to win $100 my chase will be $50, $75, $115
First to score wins first 3 games of series happened 4 of 18 series since 2010. Only 1 time did first to score won all games in series. 2 lost in game 4 and 1 lost in game 5.
I am sure no trend is perfect all the time, but I like my chances in catching first to score loses at lest 1x during the next 3 of the DET/NYY series (if it goes that far).
Will chase the same in the NL for games 3-5.
As I have said before, this is my first year seriously betting baseball and have learned a lot following this thread.
I just went thru open heart surgery at the age of 66, and am stuck in this house except being driven to all the Drs. I have...my loved ones even took my car & truck off my property, sooo. when I found this thread while surfing the MLB forum, well I ain't quite as bored and even reduced my MLB losses somewhat. Never too old to appreciate folks who put some research to making $$!
WIN BIG Y'ALL!!
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I just went thru open heart surgery at the age of 66, and am stuck in this house except being driven to all the Drs. I have...my loved ones even took my car & truck off my property, sooo. when I found this thread while surfing the MLB forum, well I ain't quite as bored and even reduced my MLB losses somewhat. Never too old to appreciate folks who put some research to making $$!
You know I love that PROP. Its a shame its only offered on Primetime games and Post-season. Its paid 5/5 for me this year and ill jump on it with you. Thx for looking into it!
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@mj
You know I love that PROP. Its a shame its only offered on Primetime games and Post-season. Its paid 5/5 for me this year and ill jump on it with you. Thx for looking into it!
So far I only looked at 2010/2011/2012 completed series and home team scored first in first 3 games 15 out of 18 series (83%). 1 of those was in game 4, 1 in game 5 and the last was the lone away team scored first in all.
Oops - I meant home team scored first at least 1x during the first 3 games of a series 15 of 18 series. (16 of 19 including SF yesterday).
Locked in on first to score loses DET/NY today +210 - only play today.
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Quote Originally Posted by mjnorman59:
So far I only looked at 2010/2011/2012 completed series and home team scored first in first 3 games 15 out of 18 series (83%). 1 of those was in game 4, 1 in game 5 and the last was the lone away team scored first in all.
Oops - I meant home team scored first at least 1x during the first 3 games of a series 15 of 18 series. (16 of 19 including SF yesterday).
Locked in on first to score loses DET/NY today +210 - only play today.
any leans or plays for the MLB game tonight Shady? I may have missed if posted earlier.
My MMA predictions are hitting at a YTD: 77 - 39 clip since I started recording so I'd be happy to give some info if anyone is interested, feel like I need to give back somehow.
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any leans or plays for the MLB game tonight Shady? I may have missed if posted earlier.
My MMA predictions are hitting at a YTD: 77 - 39 clip since I started recording so I'd be happy to give some info if anyone is interested, feel like I need to give back somehow.
Last weekend Shady? Yeah I have it I will email if that is what you're looking for.
JS4U
Wait on the dog line until gametime and we want the line to be bet up to 7.5+ or greater.
Not sure if this game qualifies under Angle's system of team getting blown out one week and covering the next. I'll await his keen insight and knowledge from inside the angle.
That angle says to play on any team that lost vs. spread by 25 or more points in last game. SF should qualify. One that I already know about is JAX. They will be a play this week. Sometimes the angles don't get updated until Friday.
SF was minus 7 and lost by 23, so adding that together would be 30.
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Quote Originally Posted by Newfie_Bullet:
Last weekend Shady? Yeah I have it I will email if that is what you're looking for.
JS4U
Wait on the dog line until gametime and we want the line to be bet up to 7.5+ or greater.
Not sure if this game qualifies under Angle's system of team getting blown out one week and covering the next. I'll await his keen insight and knowledge from inside the angle.
That angle says to play on any team that lost vs. spread by 25 or more points in last game. SF should qualify. One that I already know about is JAX. They will be a play this week. Sometimes the angles don't get updated until Friday.
SF was minus 7 and lost by 23, so adding that together would be 30.
randog, what that column gives you is the team to play vs. the bye team in its 2nd game. ex. pitt in in its 2nd game post bye lost ats to tenn, colts in their 2nd game post bye lost ats to the jets - both teams lost outright but i believe its the ats record being tracked there.
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randog, what that column gives you is the team to play vs. the bye team in its 2nd game. ex. pitt in in its 2nd game post bye lost ats to tenn, colts in their 2nd game post bye lost ats to the jets - both teams lost outright but i believe its the ats record being tracked there.
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