Birds and Sophisticates 5/15

17-27-2, -842.03, - RoR -18.7 %

JMHO – 5/15

Try to understand something if you will. I feel free to do as I wish now, no harm can be done. Only an unwise person could be taking my advice right now, and those that do are maybe a little “touched in the head” as the old timers would say. So, a complete sense of freedom to “call ‘em as I see’s ‘em”, and let the buyer beware. 

F5 – RL – Orioles -102 (98) – Baz/Littell

The FG line is higher than you would expect, and justifiably so, as the O’s have done better versus a tougher schedule, and produced better results. O’s are a respectable 18-15 vs righty and the Nats have a real problem there, limping in at 11-18. If they weren’t 10-5 vs lefty they would not be considered a very good team at all. Their shortcomings are visible in their all their offensive stats vs righty. 

F5 – Mets +138 – Schlittler/Holmes

The usual gang of suspects has lined up with their “Yankees-at-any-price” money and given us a false favorite as they so often do. +138 requires only a 72% chance of victory to be playable, and I compute the Mets at 51%, tossup territory. 

PAYOR. Play at your own risk.

o.e.r.a. = Offensive Earned Run Average. The opposing starters era vs the teams offense

(what a favorite pays when flat betting 100) A number of years ago some dimwit on this site could not get the concept of flat wagering through his skull, and kept accusing me of “not deducting the juice” when a favorite of mine lost. So, I point out the profit I will take if I win, a loss is still -100. That is flat wagering; like it or hate it my records are accurate.

@KeyElement

 The usual gang of suspects has lined up with their “Yankees-at-any-price” money and given us a false favorite as they so often do. +138 requires only a 72% chance of victory to be playable, and I compute the Mets at 51%, tossup territory. 

Well, I screwed that up. Let me go do the correct math, as, obviously, a +138 dog needs a win probability far below 50%. Sheesh!

OK, 34% is the required probability.  

@KeyElement

I read your posts when I can or when I'm in the forum.  Great insight for years, much appreciated.  And I live in Scottsdale so I'm now a neighbor of yours (I believe you're in Mesa?).

Weighing in on the NYY/NYM game, there is also a psychological angle here.  As you/we witness almost daily, there seems to often times be a "revenge factor" or a player squaring off against his old employers.  And, it seems, so many of the times, regardless of how inept that certain player/team might be, somehow, someway, they step it up.

Tonight, there is ZERO doubt in my mind that the New York media is all over this matchup, constantly reminding the Mets of how bad they are and most likely pumping the Yankees to be viewed as a better team than they are overall, which isn't hard to do.  But I think that this only ignites more fire within the Mets and, tonight, they have a really solid starter, perhaps their best so far this season, in Clay Holmes going.  My feeling is, combined with all the "noise" they must be hearing about how dismal they are and how they will get rolled by their cross-town rivals, this game takes on even more importance to quiet the pundits and get this series off in their favor.  

I would have to agree with you on the Mets taking Game 1 here not just on value, which I know is important for you when making your plays, but also for the "X factor" of not being ridiculed in their own city.  Good luck tonight .

Orioles F5 now at -135 looking good! 

Go Mets beat those dirty Stankees! 

@LAGameofInches:  and most likely pumping the Yankees 

***

Could we make that "pimping" the Yankees, as they always do? 

Next time kurtijoe and I have lunch maybe you could join us. My turn to buy, and since he is North Mesa, I know a great place around Power and McDowell. What do you think Kurt; shall we invite another native to join us?

I absolutely love Cincinnati today at +115 as Andrew Abbott is pitching better lately.

Cubs/ChiSox UNDER 4.5 1H & UNDER 8.5 FG 

Yanks -1 it is.

@Jars

 And the Mets are coming down, although not the public choice. Money is hitting the Mets. Money moves lines, not public popularity.

I'm solid company, I promise ;).

@henrylazarde

 I wish you luck, but I am not high on that one. The Guardians have been very good against lefty, and their offense is very sneaky. They don't win with a lot of thunder, but they do win. BOL

@barneybeans

 Thanx barney, should have pointed that out myself.