2021 HOT STOVE

Hate the pitching change for Pitt, a southpaw. Pretty much the only thing the Yankees can hit right now.

GLTA

Spring Training 2021 [ 8-8-1 / +95 / RoR +5.9%]

3/10

Pirates +170

Tigers +125

Brewers +110

Cubs +105

Comment: I confess. I can’t resist dogs that “smell” good.

Surprised no one's on MIA here.

Brewers +120

Top 3 hitters in the Brew Crew lineup gotta wake up at some point. Bassit's first spring outing might go 1 maybe 2 innings. And a bunch of bum arms behind him.

The A's aren't hitting south paws, yet. 

Good Luck

PIT has allowed 22 runs in all 8 games (2.75/game)

Going by games and not innings, because who knows how many innings exactly and I'm not calculating that now...

last 5 games where there are a few more innings per game. 8 runs allowed (1.6/game)

Overall this is not the best handicapping angle because who knows who was in the lineups that PIT was facing.

But I am seeing some better pitchers than batters overall in these Spring Training warm weather in FL/AZ games. Guess only pitching 20-40 pitches these guys are able to hold it together for such a short outing.

@barneybeans

 Using key factors or elements in S.T. is almost a fruitless endeavor. There are just "should be's" and might "be's". In some cases a team has not shown any reason to be a favorite, much less a big favorite. Bettors are jumping on home field, names and reputations instead of probability. Another week and we might see stats and facts we can hang our hats on, but not yet. Young players on rebuilding teams are playing their butts off to make the club. Dogfights. And no, I am not sniffing like you might have imagined. Shame on you!

@JEG53

 Shortest and most intelligent post you have made in weeks. Congratulations  

@JEG53

 Who do you like in hoops today?

YTD

4-3-1  +1.09u  

Pitt is using 8 left handed bats today. Only .589 OPS from the left side this spring.

I'll be rooting for you guys. The pen is on your side.

The pen is the only reason I'm on PIT today. And the +172

"Using key factors or elements in S.T. is almost a fruitless endeavor."- It's all we got from a fundamental standpoint and anything less is throwing darts.

"In some cases a team has not shown any reason to be a favorite, much less a big favorite" - they are being bet up so much because of what the manager's plans are. Early in the ST season the strategy of winning the game is not really considered.

"Bettors are jumping on home field, names and reputations instead of probability."- I think a lot of line movement is based on that manager's strategy for the day. Lineups being announced and whatever the manager says or doesn't say conveys that strategy and moves the line. e.g., "for today's game we are changing our signs to Swedish and all relievers underwear must be changed every half hour. You must wear underwear on the outside of your uniform so we can check". As soon as that is conveyed, everyone bets the other side.

With NCAAB and NBA I don't think we are getting the desperate degenerates - maybe I'm wrong but I would think hardcore MLB bettors are making up +80% of the action.

"Another week and we might see stats and facts we can hang our hats on, but not yet" - It can only get better, yes. Maybe we won't see any stats or facts to hang our hats on until 4 weeks into reg season.

I'm just riding this all out because I love MLB. I also think I can currently spot when two teams are playing each other, which manager's mindset for that game coincides more with winning the game than the other manger's mindset. This should end real soon and when that shakes out and is all done it'll be time to sit back and watch until reg season.

Otisburg must have nice smelling dogs.

For the last 5 years or so, I've been expecting the strikeout rate to at least flatten, if not regress to some point. 

Nope. All I see is "strike 3 swinging" every time I look at my stat tracker.

15 between Minny and TB, and there's no outs bottom 6.

Toronto has 9 through 7.

14 between Detroit and Philly after 6.

@undermysac

 Simpler math - The Yankees are a 50% team, now up to -240. What gives them a 75% probability today? Besides, 90% of the money is on the Yankees. Vegas can't afford that. The call will go out. 

Josh Hader of all people gives up 3 runs. 2 defensive errors by the Brew Crew chalk up an unearned run.

This is the most humbling of sports to bet on.

And we will be back for more tomorrow

Good Luck fellas 

You guys know what happens when a dimwit posts something like this, right?

The Pirates will hit 4 HR's off Domingo German 

They'll be up by 7 half way through the game. Then their pen will blow the lead.

@undermysac

 SYR and TCU

to everyone but Key.