🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Braves -147 @pinn  1st 5 innings    

TWINKIES +121 @pinn  "value bet"     ...very close; should be a coin-flipper

Giants +133 @pinn  "value bet"    ....est mean runs 4.0  vs  4.2

DBACKS -130 @pinn

AZ/COL un 11 -135  alt-total@pinn

Dodgers -132 @pinn    *BB              

@fubah2

 GL today!! 

.  Sunday, May 17:

W Tampa  -142 @pinn                       *BB
W Phillies +111 @pinn   "value bet"
W Toronto -121 @pinn                       *BB
W Braves -146 @pinn                        *BB
push  Bo/ATL un 9 -124 alt-total@pinn
W Braves -147 @pinn 1st 5 innings
W TWINS +121 @pinn   "value bet"
     Giants +133 @pinn    "value bet"
     DBACKS -130 @pinn
     AZ/COL un 11 -135 alt-total@pinn
     Dodgers -132 @pinn                     *BB

@fubah2

Sunday, May 17:

  HOT STREAK WARNING! 

                                    KIRBY,  Seattle

           This STARTER is riding a tenuous  7-game  HOT STREAK, 

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  CAN NOT be avoided.  Best to avoid!

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe! You decide.

 For those who saw this WARNING! and backed off the PIRATES, you were rewarded by avoiding a loss on the home town favs.

SKENES, is an EXCELLENT starter.  We all know this!  But from time-to-time we ALL have a BAD day.  With starters, the odds of having a BAD day increases substantively after reaching 7 consecutive (any time during the season) without suffering a "bad outing" in that streak.  In all likelihood Skenes will bounce back his next start and it is safe to resume considering his games...

Thanks friends!....BoL with our new MLB series' starting Monday! 

?? 

Goat*

For the nightcap, I have the hometown Mariners with a "probable edge" +1.3 runs, making the assumption that rusty castoff GIOLITO is expected to pitch roughly average....but there's no significant RECENT stats to support the theory, so I am more or less guessing, which isn't wise  

In any case, that edge, while decent, comes at a large price on the favs and it sits right on my border range for a play or pass.  Given the HOT STREAK WARNING on Kirby, I don't need the stress, so I am passing.  Regardless the final score I lose nothing and am just fine with passing on this one even if they might win...

@fubah2

Tailed you on 3 of these, all 3 were winners!

Keep up the great work !!!

@TheVigPodcast

 KEWL!!  Glad you won your bets!  Nice way to close the weekend! 

.  Sunday, May 17 results:

W Tampa  -142 @pinn                       *BB
W Phillies +111 @pinn   "value bet"
W Toronto -121 @pinn                       *BB
W Braves -146 @pinn                        *BB
push  Bo/ATL un 9 -124 alt-total@pinn
W Braves -147 @pinn 1st 5 innings
W TWINS +121 @pinn   "value bet"
W Giants +133 @pinn    "value bet"
W DBACKS -130 @pinn
 L  AZ/COL un 11 -135 alt-total@pinn
W Dodgers -132 @pinn                     *BB

 9 - 1 (and a push) for +8.30u

YTD "value bets" =   20 - 10   +14.29u

  For those who saw this WARNING! and backed off Seattle, you were rewarded by avoiding a LOSS 

KIRBY, is an EXCELLENT starter.  But from time-to-time we ALL have a BAD day.  With starters, the odds of having a BAD day increases substantively after reaching 7 consecutive (any time during the season) without suffering a "bad outing" in that streak.  In all likelihood KIRBY will bounce back in his next start and it is safe to resume considering his games...

@NetProfit2023

Yes, about 5 hours to set up every series, including short breaks away from the screen, but that's just for PART 1 (projecting run production).

Part 2 (pitching/lineups/odds/bets) goes faster - roughly 2 hours each night.

No data via AI.   Don't know how in the first place and I am visually oriented so I need to see on paper everything laid out in a manner that makes sense to my eyes and stands out - including use of red and blue colored inks, circles, BOLDING, colored highlights, asterisks, etc as needed.

PART 1 complete, so now I can relax and slowly pick away at PART 2 for Monday...

BoL with your bets! 

@fubah2

 Great job on Sunday. Hope you post early today, so I can follow along.

Quality work

 What a difference the venue can make for some teams!

    Example: NYY

May begins with 7 HOME games (Balt and Tex):
     56 - 22 =  NYY avg HOME score 8.0 rpg  vs  3.1 against 

then 9 ROAD games (Milw, Balt, Mets)
     28 - 41 =  NYY avg ROAD score 3.1 rpg  vs  4.5 against 

 Tonight they return to Yankee Stadium to begin a 7 game HOME stand

@Bet33  

@TheVigPodcast 

@Deejsurge 

@LVTruck  

Thank you, gents!  BoL with your bets today! 

@fubah2

 Nice work Sunday, my good Lad..!