Posted:
#4426
Braves -147 @pinn 1st 5 innings 
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#4432
.
Sunday, May 17:
W Tampa -142 @pinn *BB
W Phillies +111 @pinn "value bet"
W Toronto -121 @pinn *BB
W Braves -146 @pinn *BB
push Bo/ATL un 9 -124 alt-total@pinn
W Braves -147 @pinn 1st 5 innings
W TWINS +121 @pinn "value bet"
Giants +133 @pinn "value bet"
DBACKS -130 @pinn
AZ/COL un 11 -135 alt-total@pinn
Dodgers -132 @pinn *BB
Posted:
#4435
Sunday, May 17:
HOT STREAK WARNING! 
KIRBY, Seattle
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK, 
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! 
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. CAN NOT be avoided. 
Best to avoid!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe! You decide.
Posted:
#4436
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Sunday, May 17:
Sunday, May 17:
HOT STREAK WARNING!
SKENES, Pitty
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
For those who saw this WARNING! and backed off the PIRATES, you were rewarded by avoiding a loss on the home town favs.
SKENES, is an EXCELLENT starter. We all know this! But from time-to-time we ALL have a BAD day. With starters, the odds of having a BAD day increases substantively after reaching 7 consecutive (any time during the season) without suffering a "bad outing" in that streak. In all likelihood Skenes will bounce back his next start and it is safe to resume considering his games...
Posted:
#4440
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Sunday, May 17:
Sunday, May 17:
HOT STREAK WARNING!
KIRBY, Seattle
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
For the nightcap, I have the hometown Mariners with a "probable edge" +1.3 runs, making the assumption that rusty castoff GIOLITO is expected to pitch roughly average....but there's no significant RECENT stats to support the theory, so I am more or less guessing, which isn't wise 
In any case, that edge, while decent, comes at a large price on the favs and it sits right on my border range for a play or pass. Given the HOT STREAK WARNING on Kirby, I don't need the stress, so I am passing. Regardless the final score I lose nothing and am just fine with passing on this one even if they might win...
Posted:
#4443
. Sunday, May 17 results:
W Tampa -142 @pinn *BB
W Phillies +111 @pinn "value bet"
W Toronto -121 @pinn *BB
W Braves -146 @pinn *BB
push Bo/ATL un 9 -124 alt-total@pinn
W Braves -147 @pinn 1st 5 innings
W TWINS +121 @pinn "value bet"
W Giants +133 @pinn "value bet"
W DBACKS -130 @pinn
L AZ/COL un 11 -135 alt-total@pinn
W Dodgers -132 @pinn *BB
9 - 1 (and a push) for +8.30u
YTD "value bets" = 20 - 10 +14.29u
Posted:
#4444
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Sunday, May 17
Sunday, May 17
HOT STREAK WARNING!
KIRBY, Seattle
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Given the HOT STREAK WARNING on Kirby, I don't need the stress, so I am passing. Regardless the final score I lose nothing and am just fine with passing on this one even if they might win...
For those who saw this WARNING! and backed off Seattle, you were rewarded by avoiding a LOSS
KIRBY, is an EXCELLENT starter. But from time-to-time we ALL have a BAD day. With starters, the odds of having a BAD day increases substantively after reaching 7 consecutive (any time during the season) without suffering a "bad outing" in that streak. In all likelihood KIRBY will bounce back in his next start and it is safe to resume considering his games...
Posted:
#4445
Quote Originally Posted by NetProfit2023:
Full respect to you Fubah, did you say 5 hours?
Full respect to you Fubah, did you say 5 hours?
Are you running the data with AI?
Truly appreciative of your work and gratitude for sharing it.
@NetProfit2023
Yes, about 5 hours to set up every series, including short breaks away from the screen, but that's just for PART 1 (projecting run production).
Part 2 (pitching/lineups/odds/bets) goes faster - roughly 2 hours each night.
No data via AI. Don't know how in the first place and I am visually oriented so I need to see on paper everything laid out in a manner that makes sense to my eyes and stands out - including use of red and blue colored inks, circles, BOLDING, colored highlights, asterisks, etc as needed.
PART 1 complete, so now I can relax and slowly pick away at PART 2 for Monday...
BoL with your bets! 
Posted:
#4448
What a difference the venue can make for some teams!
Example: NYY
May begins with 7 HOME games (Balt and Tex):
56 - 22 = NYY avg HOME score 8.0 rpg vs 3.1 against 
then 9 ROAD games (Milw, Balt, Mets)
28 - 41 = NYY avg ROAD score 3.1 rpg vs 4.5 against 
Tonight they return to Yankee Stadium to begin a 7 game HOME stand
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