Posted:
#4476
Yankees are gonna fuck the whole night up
🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵
Posted:
#4478
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Cubbies -152 @pinn *BB ...estimate +1.8 run edge and a total from 8.5 to 11.0
Cubbies -152 @pinn *BB ...estimate +1.8 run edge and a total from 8.5 to 11.0
IMANAGA, is an excellent/elite LEFTY starter. But every starter will have bad days. Today was that day for Jota who allowed a whopping 13 baserunners and 8 ER in only 4.1 ip 
...and it came against a Brewers team that struggles against lefties...
Posted:
#4485
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: MONDAY, May 18: CWS +142 @pinn "value bet" ...I have Seattle for a thin +0.2 run edge NOTES: My "value bets" are specific only to matchups which are either 50/50 or damn close while the dog is getting *SIGNIFICANT* plus $$$. The theory is, if I am reasonably accurate at identifying 50/50 matchups then, over the season, I should anticipate at or very close to half wins and half losers --> but because ALL the bets are for *SIGNIFICANT* plus $$$ then logically I should be up decent profit! In theory. But remember, I do expect to lose close to HALF of all my "value bets." If you're looking for winners, my "value bets" are NOT the place to start. Yes, profit is anticipated over the season but the actual WIN/LOSS might be disappointing. Tonight's game is a primo example. A coin-flipper. 50/50 chance either team, although a very slight edge to Seattle. Maybe. But still, give us 100 games where the odds of winning are roughly 50/50 but we're getting PLUS $$$ payout on HALF those.....TYVM!!!! My "value bets" have been doing particularly well so far, hitting 66% (luck involved). But that presents a problem going forward: likely regression So don't be surprised if/when this loses. It's a coin-flip.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: MONDAY, May 18: CWS +142 @pinn "value bet" ...I have Seattle for a thin +0.2 run edge NOTES: My "value bets" are specific only to matchups which are either 50/50 or damn close while the dog is getting *SIGNIFICANT* plus $$$. The theory is, if I am reasonably accurate at identifying 50/50 matchups then, over the season, I should anticipate at or very close to half wins and half losers --> but because ALL the bets are for *SIGNIFICANT* plus $$$ then logically I should be up decent profit! In theory. But remember, I do expect to lose close to HALF of all my "value bets." If you're looking for winners, my "value bets" are NOT the place to start. Yes, profit is anticipated over the season but the actual WIN/LOSS might be disappointing. Tonight's game is a primo example. A coin-flipper. 50/50 chance either team, although a very slight edge to Seattle. Maybe. But still, give us 100 games where the odds of winning are roughly 50/50 but we're getting PLUS $$$ payout on HALF those.....TYVM!!!! My "value bets" have been doing particularly well so far, hitting 66% (luck involved). But that presents a problem going forward: likely regression So don't be surprised if/when this loses. It's a coin-flip.
Rockies +130 @pinn "value bet" ...likewise I have the fav Rangers for only a hair of an edge Of course, I am hoping for at least a split on my two "value bets" tonight (CWS and Colo) That would be dandy.
Got the 1 - 1 split I was hoping for, gaining a small profit. 
YTD "value bets" = 21 - 11 +14.59u
Posted:
#4488
Quote Originally Posted by NetProfit2023:
@fubah2 Didn't post but put in 3 total plays all losses. Did play Angels, Marlins and Mariners as well as White Sox 1st Five which were winners. Full respect to your consistency in picking winners and the positive energy along with it.
@fubah2 Didn't post but put in 3 total plays all losses. Did play Angels, Marlins and Mariners as well as White Sox 1st Five which were winners. Full respect to your consistency in picking winners and the positive energy along with it.
Some days are better (or worse) than others, but the fun thing about MLB is every day brings a full slate of games for a new challenge!
Posted:
#4493
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: . TACO Tuesday: Cinci +127 @pinn "value bet" *BB ... Cinci may even have a tiny edge; rated 53% chance Cleveland -119 @pinn *BB ...run production est: 4.4 vs 3.4 with breeze included
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: . TACO Tuesday: Cinci +127 @pinn "value bet" *BB ... Cinci may even have a tiny edge; rated 53% chance Cleveland -119 @pinn *BB ...run production est: 4.4 vs 3.4 with breeze included
TAMPA -114 @pinn *BB ... solid +1.1 edge unless TB starter implodes which is possible 
Minnesota losing a TOP BAT with (C) JEFFERS now out!
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