🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

. Phillies ?!  Against WHOM did they play?

After starting the season 7 - 8, the Phillies then faced a daunting schedule versus two of the top teams in MLB TWICE each (.617 Cubs and .681 Braves) falling 2 - 11 over that very tough stretch.

So management fired their long-serving very successful manager.

Since then they have gone 15 - 4 and folks are dancing in the streets, crediting the W/L turnaround to the change in manager.

But who did the Phillies face in this 15 - 4 stretch?
         .426 Giants
         .447 Marlins
         .500 A's
         .383 Rockies
         .413 BoSox
         .511 Pirates

         Only one team above .500!

Now they start a string of matchups collectively MUCH tougher:
    .511 Cinci
    .542 Cleveland
    .609 @Padres
    .617 @Dodgers
    .609 Padres

A significant facet of my handicapping is assessing against WHOM have the teams (or starters) achieved their stats (good or bad)?

Should we expect Phillies' hot streak to continue thru these next 5 series?!

MONDAY, May 18:

CWS +142  @pinn "value bet"        ...I have Seattle for a thin +0.2 run edge

NOTES: My "value bets" are specific only to matchups which are either 50/50 or damn close while the dog is getting *SIGNIFICANT* plus $$$. The theory is, if I am reasonably accurate at identifying 50/50 matchups then, over the season, I should anticipate at or very close to half wins and half losers --> but because ALL the bets are for  *SIGNIFICANT* plus $$$ then logically I should be up decent profit! 

                        In theory. 

But remember, I do expect to lose close to HALF of all my "value bets."  If you're looking for winners, my "value bets" are NOT the place to start.   Yes, profit is anticipated over the season but the actual WIN/LOSS might be disappointing.

Tonight's game is a primo example. A coin-flipper. 50/50 chance either team, although a very slight edge to Seattle. Maybe.  But still, give us 100 games where the odds of winning are roughly 50/50 but we're getting PLUS $$$ payout on HALF those.....TYVM!!!! 

My "value bets" have been doing particularly well so far, hitting 66% (luck involved).  But that presents a problem going forward: likely regression   So don't be surprised if/when this loses.  It's a coin-flip.

Tampa -138 @pinn     *BB

Tampa -1.5 +143 @pinn          ... 10 - 5 to win at home by 2+ past month
Tampa -158 @pinn  1st 5 inn 
Tampa TT over 2.5 -257 @pinn  ... 13 - 2 in May at least 3 runs scored;  8 - 1 at home

@fubah2

I have Philly rateds with a shaky +0.6 run edge over Cinci, but it's shaky because LODOLO for Cinci is a BIG questionmark.  Formerly VERY GOOD starter, struggles in first 2 outings this season....How to evaluate???  If he performs like the first two outings then Philly has a solid edge to win but if he gets his form back, CINCI likely wins....

I show the amazing NY METS rated for a +0.5 run edge on the road @Washy, inspite of losing ALVAREZ

@fubah2

YANKEES -162 @pinn   *BB    ... est range: Toro 2.5 - 3.5; NYY 4.0 - 5.0

TY and BoL with your bets tonight! 

Going to be some sort of experiment day for me.

Moneyline looking to play:

Orioles +126

Marlins -105

Angels +118

Mariners -145

Quote Originally Posted by Fuse:

TY Fuse, and BoL with your bets tonight! 

Totals looking to play:

Reds Phillies UNDER 9.5

Red Sox Royals OVER 9.5

Orioles Rays UNDER 7.5

White Sox Mariners UNDER 7.5

Rangers Rockies UNDER 9.5

Fubah, amazing end to the week. Salute.

Looking to see you starting hot in a new week. No pressure. 

@fubah2

 Do you do this full time? 

@fubah2

 What a good post, showing the quality of your insight not only data based but also analytical thinking put in. Not overly complicated, instead they are simple but sharp and logical. 

Cubbies -152 @pinn *BB     ...estimate +1.8 run edge and a total from 8.5 to 11.0

@NetProfit2023

 Please don’t clutter this thread. Start your own. BOL 

@NetProfit2023

Well, sorta.   I'm retired (widower) and currently not coordinating any further projects for my local Vets Association so I have waaaay too much free time on my hands.    My trusty but aging "BatMobile" is on it's last legs and new cars are VERY expensive so I need to keep building my "New BatMobile fund" - thus my handicapping hobby has more or less morphed into a PT labor of love type job I guess. LOL. 

But truth is I would be doing this just as much anyway as I enjoy the challenge for its own sake.  Plus the camaraderie I share with my 4  [occasional/if I'm winning] followers! 

@fubah2

 GL today!  

@fubah2

I love this!!  I am a widow and I love sports.  I bet on MLB, NFL, NBA and NAFF!  I follow you ALOT!!  Thank you for ALL of your info!!!

I know IT IS A LOT OF WORK AND TIME!!!

Rockies +130 @pinn  "value bet"   ...likewise I have the fav Rangers for only a hair of an edge

Of course, I am hoping for at least a split on my two "value bets" tonight (CWS and Colo) That would be dandy.

@NetProfit2023

 Yeaaaah  there should be some decent value in there!  BoL  

Athletics -127 @pinn    NOT a *BB  ...just made the cut for a bet; a plausible +1.1 run edge

URENA has improved big time the past few games and may be the stronger starter tonight even though Ginn is also performing fairly well.  BUT....the Angels offense is sorely lacking for one, and when it gets into the bullpens, well, Angels are struggling mightily.

@TDHCentral    

@OO7CRUSHER  

@Woosie1   

@Ramanujan   

@NetProfit2023  

@FelixFermin21  

Thank you all for your comments and hope you're having a good evening!