🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Since Mookie Betts return to the Dodger lineup he has struggled even worse than before his injury, which was already a struggle.

Since returning:  18  official at bats .... reached base only twice, for a .111 OBP 

Betts was a woeful .179 BA before his injury.... today it stands at .152

@trust-me

Since the latter part of last century my friend. 

How about YOU? 

I went thru all the growing pains and learning experiences, often hard.  The biggest one I struggled with (as do most) was discipline. When I started losing I chased. Mistake!! When I became angered by losing a bet on a fluke, I chased and that was a mistake too!!  When I went on a winning streak - thinking I had a grip on how to win consistently - I doubled my stakes to capitalize on my "believed" tremendous skills. LOL.  BIGGER mistake!  Karma has a way of making us eat "humble pie" and teaching us lessons.  I paid the price a few times I can tell you.   But once I got a grip on discipline my bottom line greatly improved.  

 Over the years I learned a few tips that have REALLY aided my results in MLB:

1/  I ignore MLB team win/loss records.  Virtually meaningless (to me)

2/  I refuse to invoke "guessing"   Truly a rookie mistake!  Sound logic or pass!

3/  I weigh "recent performances" much stronger than YTD stats.

4/  Against WHOM a team/player achieved their stats is of paramount importance!

5/  Only a "significant edge" or I PASS.  A key part of discipline...

6/  When it looks too good to be true _________

7/  Lopsided scores or ER will skew the stats.  I tweak to remove the bloating. 

Yuck....... Pitty couldn't sccore even a single run after getting 9 yesterday 

Rays tie it up to force extra innings.....then allow 8 runs in top of 10th

Good example of skewing that I erase:

2 - 2 after 9........ 10 - 5 final

Lucky Mets

@fubah2

 How do you track over time, or do you do manually (simply marking it down), it is huge amount of work and almost impossible it seems to me.

@NetProfit2023

 Pen and paper.  I have 6 binders stuffed full of multiple seasons' worth of saved work.

BoL with your bets this weekend 

@fubah2

 Do you like the dodgers over?

@markoj17

 Hello.   

Nope.  If anything was kinda leaning under - pegged for between 6.9 and 7.9 total runs when allowing for a very slight breeze, but won't play it.

BoL with your bets tonight!  

I do however have the DODGERS indicated for a +0.7 run edge - give or take - but the current odds are still a bit too high to justify a bet on such a mediocre edge so I am passing and looking at Sunday's games instead.

BoL! 

So for those who saw this warning and decided to PASS on betting Atlanta, you saved a loss (unlike me, as I took the risk he would not implode on the mound and the MUCH better team would prevail)

But the Braves loss was NOT due to ELDER!  He actually pitched well for his 10th copnsecutive start without a bad outing yet...

The odds of a bad outing thus increases further now...

x 2     

3 -  4 Saturday   with 9 - 2 on my *BBs (TB and NYY)

.Sunday, May 17: (always listed SP at the time of my post)

Tampa -142   @pinn  *BB           ...solid edges on the mound and plate; est. +1.4

Sunday, May 17:

  HOT STREAK WARNING! 

                                    SKENES,  Pitty

            This STARTER is riding a tenuous  8-game  HOT STREAK, 

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

           ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!             

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long" especially AFTER 7 straight w/o a "bad outing"....All GOOD pitchers will, from time to time, have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  CAN NOT be avoided.  Best to avoid!

CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day.....maybe! You decide.

Phillies +111 @pinn   "value bet"     ...close matchup but actually a thin edge to Phillies 

Toronto -121 @pinn   *BB    ... about even at the plate but should be large edge pitching

Braves -146  @pinn   *BB           ...solid edge of about +1.4 runs

Bo/ATL un 9.0 -124  alt-total@pinn     ...mean est. runs:  3.0  vs.  4.4, w/breeze in

BOL today 

@fubah2

I actually have Phillies as 3 units play today. 

@NetProfit2023

 With that much at stake then I really hope you get the win! 

Pirates lose some at the plate today w/o O'Hearn's bat;  Phillies seem to have a significant edge in bullpens; and while the starters are arguably about even (and both VERY good) Skenes may be on shaky ground with a long HOT STREAK that may continue, yes, but could just as easily burst at any moment now since extended hot streaks DO NOT last... BoL to us! 

Braves -147 @pinn  1st 5 innings