Posted:
#4376
With the aforementioned 2 "value bet" wins tonight:
YTD "value bets" = 17 - 10 +10.64u
These are bets where basically it's a coin-flipper or possible a tiny edge for the team getting *significant* PLUS $$$ 
Not just betting underdog teams >>>>>
HELL NO!!!!!
But specifically where sound handicapping indicates this is a coin-flipper, whereupon, given a 50/50 shot, it just makes common sense to take the PLUS MONEY if-and-only-if the payout is seriously worthy. Over the season I anticipate my wins/losses to be close to even - but by taking only significant PLUS $$$ - the winners will more than cancel out the losers and show good profit...
my comment at 7-1 almost a curse as 2 runs scored within a minute of that so I kept my mouth shut thereafter.
In my writeup I had the game total estimated for 
Reason being is that ELDER is on a tenuous 9 game HOT STREAK which could end with a thud at any moment, against any opponent. Seriously. On paper it looks like a good bet. But what complicates things is that hot streak. They blow up sooner or later and it could be today against weakass Boston. Sure Atlanta is the much better team overall but that won't matter a tinker's damn if ELDER has an off day and implodes on the mound... The odds alone are not the concern. They are reasonable for risk. But the presence of a hot streak makes the risk of a "bad outing" and subsequent upset a bit more risky than my calculations of a +1.5 run edge would indicate. WHile I am whilling to accept higher risk than usual, 
Best to avoid!
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