@NetProfit2023
Sure. It begins with first assessing the probabilities of run output specific to this venue by each team. That calculation includes tweaks in runs-per-game avg as for last 30 days, melded with last 15 days, melded further with recent 2 series production; then melded with either HOME or AWAY RPG the past 30 days; all of which is tweaked further to reduce the effect of "high scores" skewing and the effect of higher or lower LUCK (ie, UNearned runs affecting the rpg stats up or down); allowing further for how many runs are typically (mean avg) scored by visiting teams to Coors (which is about +1.2 over league avg but I cut that in half due to overlap from mediocre/weak Rockies BP); adjusting for each team's differing strengths facing either a righty or a lefty and accounting for how injuries to key batters may have depressed previous run-scoring in the stats....After doing all that (process usually takes me about 5 hours (for the the League) to begin each series, I have AZ listed at (likely range) 3.9 - 4.5 runs from their offense vs. COLO listed at (likely range) 4.2 - 4.8 runs.
But that's ONLY the bats estimates. Now to factor in PITCHING!
PART 2 is assessing how much impact the starters and pens will have on those initial run estimates. After reviewing the "game logs" for KELLY (AZ) I mark him in at a M- rating (ie, to date, below avg) and for Freeland (Colo) - despite a deceptive ERA, I have him for an M rating (ie, average). I do rate the AZ bullpen as above avg while the Colorado pen available for tonight about average.
So, I take my mean estimate of run production (mean of 4.2 vs 4.5 for a total of 8.7 runs, give or take) and then tweak that number by the net effect of the pitching. I ended up bumping AZ to 4.4 runs and Colo up to 4.8 (estimated 9.2 run total)
Then I factor in wind. Both my sources indicate 8 mph to LC....which is mild, but just enough to tweak my 9.2 run estimate to 9.7.
Anytime I can get about 1.5 runs to 2.0 runs cushion between MY game estimate (9.7) and the listed odds (12) on an UNDER, I like it for a bet, because my capping would have to be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay OFF to lose an under 12. I like the cushion here, so I bet larger. *BB
This does NOT guarantee a winning bet by any means! Shithappens! Either starter or BP could implode!! But over the course of a season I come out ahead with a stronger mixture of wins to losses when I have statistical edges like this. Tonight could be one of the losses, but I still expect to win more than I lose over the season.
BoL with your bets today! 
@NetProfit2023
Sure. In this one, it's important to note that I gave a tiny bit more weighting (in assessing run production) to the recent decline by the Padres but a recent upswing by the Mariners. Padres OPS the past 15 days is a paltry .575 compared with Mariners at .715 (above league mean!). Mariners had a slightly better offense anyway - but this widens the gap a bit so I began with 3.5 estimate for Padres (on the road) vs. 4.4 runs for Mariners (at home). Visiting teams tend to score LESS against Mariners at T-Mobile park than elsewhere so the 3.5 tun estimate included that factor.
PART 2 factors in the game pitching to tweak how it affects est. run production.
Two decent starters, but Hancock may have a sliver of an edge and the Mariners appear to have the stronger of two decent bullpens ta boot.
Ultimately, I have Mariners sporting about a full run edge tonight.
One other thing worth mentioning, decades ago I gave up giving any weighting AT ALL to teams' W/L records and/or W/L at home vs road records. If there is a very large difference, it helps only a little at best, because in MLB, on any given day, there are almost routine upsets and/or totally unexpected performances that have nothing to do with their respective W/L records. Witness the Dodgers getting beat up by the worst offense in baseball! Team win loss records in EVERY SPORT are deceptive! I avoid them.
This does NOT guarantee a winning bet by any means! Shithappens! Either starter or BP could implode!! But over the course of a season I come out ahead with a stronger mixture of wins to losses when I have statistical edges like this. Tonight could be one of the losses, but I still expect to win more than I lose over the season. BoL with your bets today!
And sure enough, this is exactly what was feared....starter implodes un expectedly!
Freeland allows 7 on base and a whopping 6 ER just in the top of the first inning!
There goes the under 12 on a random chance fluke...
Exaactly. Deceptive stat that typically covers up the true skills of a team pertinent to the game at hand.
Ignore any team's W/L stat in baseball.
Established in 1995,
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