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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    🔥🥳 185 - 117 ... +1034.40u .....+68 more wins than losses!

    «First Previous 131415 ... 181920 Next Last»
    fubah2
    TDHCentral
    KellyM_1964
    WhiteRabb1t
    daneault23
    ...
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    «First Previous 131415 ... 181920 Next Last»
     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53875
    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 5:11 PM ET #301

    HEAVY HOME FAVS regression/carnage continues...an_getaway

     

         HHFs  LOST "bigly" on Sunday...

         X Phillies -250;  X Mets -200; and X Reds -185

     

    HHF so far, for July:  21 - 20   -17.23u  an_speechless

      *4 of those 21 wins were by only one run!....so, 17 - 24 betting the  RL an_speechless

    Reply

    HEAVY HOME FAVS regression/carnage continues...an_getaway

     

         HHFs  LOST "bigly" on Sunday...

         X Phillies -250;  X Mets -200; and X Reds -185

     

    HHF so far, for July:  21 - 20   -17.23u  an_speechless

      *4 of those 21 wins were by only one run!....so, 17 - 24 betting the  RL an_speechless

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53875
    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 5:58 PM ET #302

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    WARNING!  Streaker Alert!


                  This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

                 ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_getaway


                           an_light  KIRBY, Mariners

    Although the MARINERS failed to give KIRBY run support last night (they lost 1 - 2) KIRBY pitched very well and extends his HOT STREAK now to 9 games without a BAD outing...

                                   an_nailbiter

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    WARNING!  Streaker Alert!


                  This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,

                       WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!

                 ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! an_nailbiter an_getaway


                           an_light  KIRBY, Mariners

    Although the MARINERS failed to give KIRBY run support last night (they lost 1 - 2) KIRBY pitched very well and extends his HOT STREAK now to 9 games without a BAD outing...

                                   an_nailbiter

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 6:03 PM ET #303

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    RODON?     After a bad outing to begin MAY, which the NYY lost, Rodon went on a hot streak of 7 consecutive games WITHOUT a bad outing and the NYY won all 7.

     

    Then he began a streak of 5 consecutive BAD outings....and NYY lost all 5

    RODON starts another game, and the NYY lose....

     

    He was yanked after just 4 ip, though not pitching horrible...and not GOOD either.

    7 K is GOOD over 4 ip!

    But 7 baserunners is WEAK.

    2 ER is mediocre after 4 innings so he gets the benefit of the doubt...

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    RODON?     After a bad outing to begin MAY, which the NYY lost, Rodon went on a hot streak of 7 consecutive games WITHOUT a bad outing and the NYY won all 7.

     

    Then he began a streak of 5 consecutive BAD outings....and NYY lost all 5

    RODON starts another game, and the NYY lose....

     

    He was yanked after just 4 ip, though not pitching horrible...and not GOOD either.

    7 K is GOOD over 4 ip!

    But 7 baserunners is WEAK.

    2 ER is mediocre after 4 innings so he gets the benefit of the doubt...

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 6:08 PM ET #304

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Interesting stats...

    BRADY SINGER, Royals, has started 18 games...

    14 of those were only 2 runs allowed or less (most were just 1 ER!)

    On the road, 6 of his 8 games were 2 ER or less

    Brady Singer's 5-consecutive game HOT STREAK is over.

    He got roughed up Sunday allowing 9 baserunners and 4 ER in only 2.2 ip surprised

    That's an average of almost 4 on base per ip!!!!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Interesting stats...

    BRADY SINGER, Royals, has started 18 games...

    14 of those were only 2 runs allowed or less (most were just 1 ER!)

    On the road, 6 of his 8 games were 2 ER or less

    Brady Singer's 5-consecutive game HOT STREAK is over.

    He got roughed up Sunday allowing 9 baserunners and 4 ER in only 2.2 ip surprised

    That's an average of almost 4 on base per ip!!!!

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 6:14 PM ET #305

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Interesting stats...

     

    In his 19 starts, JAKE IRVIN (Nats)

    has allowed more than 3 earned runs only 5 times an_clap

    Nats lost all those 5.

    But IRVIN got "mauled" Sunday...

    Before getting yanked after 4 ip, he allowed 12 on base, 2 homers and 6 earned runs!!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Interesting stats...

     

    In his 19 starts, JAKE IRVIN (Nats)

    has allowed more than 3 earned runs only 5 times an_clap

    Nats lost all those 5.

    But IRVIN got "mauled" Sunday...

    Before getting yanked after 4 ip, he allowed 12 on base, 2 homers and 6 earned runs!!

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 6:24 PM ET #306

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Cubbies are an enigma...   Jameson Taillon (Cubbies) has started 15 games and only allowed more than 3 earned runs ONCE!10 of his his 15 starts were just 2 ER or less!!!! And yet, Cubbies are just 8 - 7 in his starts!   Oddly, the one game he allowed more than 3 ER (actually 5 that day) THEY WON!   Cubs are just 2 - 5 in his 7 ROAD starts, despite Taillon only pitching poorly in 2!   Currently, Taillon is on a run of 6 consecutive without a BAD outing.......although the confounding Cubbies are split 3 - 3 in those starts

    In a very close call by my stats,

    TAILLON (Cubbies) just barely extends his streak of games without a truly BAD outing,

    to 7 consecutive, and will be on the bust-bubble for his next start...

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Cubbies are an enigma...   Jameson Taillon (Cubbies) has started 15 games and only allowed more than 3 earned runs ONCE!10 of his his 15 starts were just 2 ER or less!!!! And yet, Cubbies are just 8 - 7 in his starts!   Oddly, the one game he allowed more than 3 ER (actually 5 that day) THEY WON!   Cubs are just 2 - 5 in his 7 ROAD starts, despite Taillon only pitching poorly in 2!   Currently, Taillon is on a run of 6 consecutive without a BAD outing.......although the confounding Cubbies are split 3 - 3 in those starts

    In a very close call by my stats,

    TAILLON (Cubbies) just barely extends his streak of games without a truly BAD outing,

    to 7 consecutive, and will be on the bust-bubble for his next start...

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 6:46 PM ET #307

    Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games =  3.98 rpg average.

    But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...

     

    But outside of those 3 one-offs,

    just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average

     

     

    Reply

    Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games =  3.98 rpg average.

    But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...

     

    But outside of those 3 one-offs,

    just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average

     

     

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53875
    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 8:37 PM ET #308

    cool So that's it for 5 days..... We can enjoy summer now!

    Reply

    cool So that's it for 5 days..... We can enjoy summer now!

     
    TDHCentral
    TDHCentral
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    Posts: 22840
    Posted: Jul. 14, 2024 - 8:40 PM ET #309

    @fubah2

     You had a great run so far!  Enjoy the break and see ya back here soon!!!

    Reply

    @fubah2

     You had a great run so far!  Enjoy the break and see ya back here soon!!!

     
    KellyM_1964
    KellyM_1964
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    Posts: 16775
    Posted: Jul. 15, 2024 - 12:20 PM ET #310

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games =  3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...   But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average
       skewing  thumbs_down

     

     

    "I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games =  3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...   But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average
       skewing  thumbs_down

     

     

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2024 - 5:10 PM ET #311

    Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral:

    @fubah2  You had a great run so far!  Enjoy the break and see ya back here soon!!!

    @TDHCentral

     THANK YOU!peace_5  Kind of you to say!  BoL to you with all bets after the break! clover

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral:

    @fubah2  You had a great run so far!  Enjoy the break and see ya back here soon!!!

    @TDHCentral

     THANK YOU!peace_5  Kind of you to say!  BoL to you with all bets after the break! clover

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 15, 2024 - 9:01 PM ET #312

    Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games =  3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...   But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average 

     

     skewing

     

    A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games =  3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...   But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average 

     

     skewing

     

    A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.

     
    WhiteRabb1t
    WhiteRabb1t
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    Posts: 25
    Posted: Jul. 19, 2024 - 3:19 PM ET #313

    Second part of the mlb season is just beginning. BOL Everyone \o/

    Reply

    Second part of the mlb season is just beginning. BOL Everyone \o/

     
    KellyM_1964
    KellyM_1964
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    Posted: Jul. 19, 2024 - 4:33 PM ET #314

    Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRabb1t:

    Second part of the mlb season is just beginning. BOL Everyone \o/

    gl everyone thumbs_up

     

    "I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRabb1t:

    Second part of the mlb season is just beginning. BOL Everyone \o/

    gl everyone thumbs_up

     

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posts: 53875
    Posted: Jul. 22, 2024 - 8:33 PM ET #315

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games =  3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...   But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average     skewing  A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.

     

    Possible bets Tuesday?  an_cheers   Not at this time.....

    Still skittish about regression

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

    Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games =  3.98 rpg average. But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...   But outside of those 3 one-offs, just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average     skewing  A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.

     

    Possible bets Tuesday?  an_cheers   Not at this time.....

    Still skittish about regression

     
    daneault23
    daneault23
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2024 - 5:37 PM ET #316

    @fubah2

     When will you not be skittish about regression? It's going to be August soon. The dog days. Maybe picks then?

    Reply

    @fubah2

     When will you not be skittish about regression? It's going to be August soon. The dog days. Maybe picks then?

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2024 - 6:55 PM ET #317

    Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:

    @fubah2  When will you not be skittish about regression? It's going to be August soon. The dog days. Maybe picks then?

    @daneault23

     peace_5  I am giving that some careful thought, sure,

    but so far since late June, my private bets (unposted) at just a fraction of a unit, are mediocre, not much better than 50/50. This is repeating pattern for me year after year after year, for all bets after June when I have staked a nice profit.....I am perplexed why....but it seems to be a constant. sad

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:

    @fubah2  When will you not be skittish about regression? It's going to be August soon. The dog days. Maybe picks then?

    @daneault23

     peace_5  I am giving that some careful thought, sure,

    but so far since late June, my private bets (unposted) at just a fraction of a unit, are mediocre, not much better than 50/50. This is repeating pattern for me year after year after year, for all bets after June when I have staked a nice profit.....I am perplexed why....but it seems to be a constant. sad

     
    daneault23
    daneault23
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    Posted: Jul. 23, 2024 - 8:14 PM ET #318

    @fubah2

     So are you saying generally each season starting July you don't bet MLB the rest of the season?

    Reply

    @fubah2

     So are you saying generally each season starting July you don't bet MLB the rest of the season?

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 24, 2024 - 1:41 PM ET #319

    Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:

    @fubah2  So are you saying generally each season starting July you don't bet MLB the rest of the season?

    No I am not saying that.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:

    @fubah2  So are you saying generally each season starting July you don't bet MLB the rest of the season?

    No I am not saying that.

     
    fubah2
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 24, 2024 - 4:40 PM ET #320

    Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:

    @fubah2  So are you saying generally each season starting July you don't bet MLB the rest of the season?

    @daneault23

     I DO bet the rest of the season....but very miniscule fractions of my usual unit because tracking several seasons of past performance post June I am more or less break-even (same this year) in failed attempts to continue from my successful first half......so obviously there's no point in posting such mediocre picks, since they are no longer helpful.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:

    @fubah2  So are you saying generally each season starting July you don't bet MLB the rest of the season?

    @daneault23

     I DO bet the rest of the season....but very miniscule fractions of my usual unit because tracking several seasons of past performance post June I am more or less break-even (same this year) in failed attempts to continue from my successful first half......so obviously there's no point in posting such mediocre picks, since they are no longer helpful.

     
    PUSSYGALORE333
    PUSSYGALORE333
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    Posted: Jul. 24, 2024 - 4:56 PM ET #321

    peace_5

    goldfinger 1964
    Reply

    peace_5

     
    daneault23
    daneault23
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    Posted: Jul. 24, 2024 - 6:56 PM ET #322

    @fubah2

     Thanks for the insight. GL the rest of the season.

    Reply

    @fubah2

     Thanks for the insight. GL the rest of the season.

     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2024 - 1:16 PM ET #323

    Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:

    @fubah2  Thanks for the insight. GL the rest of the season.

    @daneault23

    BoL to you as well! thumbs_up

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by daneault23:

    @fubah2  Thanks for the insight. GL the rest of the season.

    @daneault23

    BoL to you as well! thumbs_up

     
    MrECapps
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2024 - 1:29 PM ET #324

    @fubah2

     This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game.   High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number.

    Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8.  Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers.

    Good luck second half.

    Reply

    @fubah2

     This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game.   High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number.

    Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8.  Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers.

    Good luck second half.

     
     
    fubah2
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2024 - 7:13 PM ET #325

    Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

    @fubah2  This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game.   High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number. Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8.  Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers. Good luck second half.

    @MrECapps

     YES!  Excellent point. peace_5  We do the same thing that way, although I use 10+ as the outliers and I cap the numbers at 9 runs max.  I keep a separate sheet with all teams listed for both HOME and AWAY, and note each time they score 10+........then I score all those games at just 9 runs and subtractr the difference from the gross totals listed on MLB.com stats page, then calculate a "best RPG" estimate (without the excess runs above 9) 

    I take it you do something very similar.... an_2drinks

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by MrECapps:

    @fubah2  This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game.   High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number. Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8.  Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers. Good luck second half.

    @MrECapps

     YES!  Excellent point. peace_5  We do the same thing that way, although I use 10+ as the outliers and I cap the numbers at 9 runs max.  I keep a separate sheet with all teams listed for both HOME and AWAY, and note each time they score 10+........then I score all those games at just 9 runs and subtractr the difference from the gross totals listed on MLB.com stats page, then calculate a "best RPG" estimate (without the excess runs above 9) 

    I take it you do something very similar.... an_2drinks

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