HEAVY HOME FAVS regression/carnage continues...![]()
HHFs LOST "bigly" on Sunday...
X Phillies -250; X Mets -200; and X Reds -185
HHF so far, for July: 21 - 20 -17.23u ![]()
*4 of those 21 wins were by only one run!....so, 17 - 24 betting the RL ![]()
HEAVY HOME FAVS regression/carnage continues...![]()
HHFs LOST "bigly" on Sunday...
X Phillies -250; X Mets -200; and X Reds -185
HHF so far, for July: 21 - 20 -17.23u ![]()
*4 of those 21 wins were by only one run!....so, 17 - 24 betting the RL ![]()
HEAVY HOME FAVS regression/carnage continues...![]()
HHFs LOST "bigly" on Sunday...
X Phillies -250; X Mets -200; and X Reds -185
HHF so far, for July: 21 - 20 -17.23u ![]()
*4 of those 21 wins were by only one run!....so, 17 - 24 betting the RL ![]()
WARNING! Streaker Alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
![]()
KIRBY, Mariners
![]()
WARNING! Streaker Alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
![]()
KIRBY, Mariners
![]()
Then he began a streak of 5 consecutive BAD outings....and NYY lost all 5
RODON starts another game, and the NYY lose....
He was yanked after just 4 ip, though not pitching horrible...and not GOOD either.
7 K is GOOD over 4 ip!
But 7 baserunners is WEAK.
2 ER is mediocre after 4 innings so he gets the benefit of the doubt...
Then he began a streak of 5 consecutive BAD outings....and NYY lost all 5
RODON starts another game, and the NYY lose....
He was yanked after just 4 ip, though not pitching horrible...and not GOOD either.
7 K is GOOD over 4 ip!
But 7 baserunners is WEAK.
2 ER is mediocre after 4 innings so he gets the benefit of the doubt...
Interesting stats...
BRADY SINGER, Royals, has started 18 games...
14 of those were only 2 runs allowed or less (most were just 1 ER!)
On the road, 6 of his 8 games were 2 ER or less
Brady Singer's 5-consecutive game HOT STREAK is over.
He got roughed up Sunday allowing 9 baserunners and 4 ER in only 2.2 ip ![]()
That's an average of almost 4 on base per ip!!!!
Interesting stats...
BRADY SINGER, Royals, has started 18 games...
14 of those were only 2 runs allowed or less (most were just 1 ER!)
On the road, 6 of his 8 games were 2 ER or less
Brady Singer's 5-consecutive game HOT STREAK is over.
He got roughed up Sunday allowing 9 baserunners and 4 ER in only 2.2 ip ![]()
That's an average of almost 4 on base per ip!!!!
Interesting stats...
In his 19 starts, JAKE IRVIN (Nats)
has allowed more than 3 earned runs only 5 times ![]()
Nats lost all those 5.
But IRVIN got "mauled" Sunday...
Before getting yanked after 4 ip, he allowed 12 on base, 2 homers and 6 earned runs!!
Interesting stats...
In his 19 starts, JAKE IRVIN (Nats)
has allowed more than 3 earned runs only 5 times ![]()
Nats lost all those 5.
But IRVIN got "mauled" Sunday...
Before getting yanked after 4 ip, he allowed 12 on base, 2 homers and 6 earned runs!!
In a very close call by my stats,
TAILLON (Cubbies) just barely extends his streak of games without a truly BAD outing,
to 7 consecutive, and will be on the bust-bubble for his next start...
In a very close call by my stats,
TAILLON (Cubbies) just barely extends his streak of games without a truly BAD outing,
to 7 consecutive, and will be on the bust-bubble for his next start...
Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games = 3.98 rpg average.
But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...
But outside of those 3 one-offs,
just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average
Oakland A's have now scored 390 runs in 98 games = 3.98 rpg average.
But 3 huge games of 20, 19, and today, 18 runs...
But outside of those 3 one-offs,
just 333 runs in 95 games = 3.5 rpg average
@TDHCentral
THANK YOU!
Kind of you to say! BoL to you with all bets after the break! ![]()
@TDHCentral
THANK YOU!
Kind of you to say! BoL to you with all bets after the break! ![]()
skewing
A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.
skewing
A lot if not most cappers overlook this in making assessments, but it is a KEY part of my capping methodology.
gl everyone ![]()
gl everyone ![]()
Possible bets Tuesday?
Not at this time.....
Still skittish about regression
Possible bets Tuesday?
Not at this time.....
Still skittish about regression
@daneault23
I am giving that some careful thought, sure,
but so far since late June, my private bets (unposted) at just a fraction of a unit, are mediocre, not much better than 50/50. This is repeating pattern for me year after year after year, for all bets after June when I have staked a nice profit.....I am perplexed why....but it seems to be a constant.
@daneault23
I am giving that some careful thought, sure,
but so far since late June, my private bets (unposted) at just a fraction of a unit, are mediocre, not much better than 50/50. This is repeating pattern for me year after year after year, for all bets after June when I have staked a nice profit.....I am perplexed why....but it seems to be a constant.
No I am not saying that.
No I am not saying that.
@daneault23
I DO bet the rest of the season....but very miniscule fractions of my usual unit because tracking several seasons of past performance post June I am more or less break-even (same this year) in failed attempts to continue from my successful first half......so obviously there's no point in posting such mediocre picks, since they are no longer helpful.
@daneault23
I DO bet the rest of the season....but very miniscule fractions of my usual unit because tracking several seasons of past performance post June I am more or less break-even (same this year) in failed attempts to continue from my successful first half......so obviously there's no point in posting such mediocre picks, since they are no longer helpful.
@fubah2
This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game. High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number.
Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8. Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers.
Good luck second half.
@fubah2
This shows up in the standard deviation of runs scored/allowed per game. High standard deviation in this case means you can't have a lot of confidence in the number.
Once nice method in the context of baseball is to cap the runs scored for a given game at say 8. Works better than simply removing or ignoring the outliers.
Good luck second half.
@MrECapps
YES! Excellent point.
We do the same thing that way, although I use 10+ as the outliers and I cap the numbers at 9 runs max. I keep a separate sheet with all teams listed for both HOME and AWAY, and note each time they score 10+........then I score all those games at just 9 runs and subtractr the difference from the gross totals listed on MLB.com stats page, then calculate a "best RPG" estimate (without the excess runs above 9)
I take it you do something very similar.... ![]()
@MrECapps
YES! Excellent point.
We do the same thing that way, although I use 10+ as the outliers and I cap the numbers at 9 runs max. I keep a separate sheet with all teams listed for both HOME and AWAY, and note each time they score 10+........then I score all those games at just 9 runs and subtractr the difference from the gross totals listed on MLB.com stats page, then calculate a "best RPG" estimate (without the excess runs above 9)
I take it you do something very similar.... ![]()
