Posted:
#226
@WhiteRabb1t 
@Zeus4par
@BlackwaterOP
@wolfeman3
@Hoyasaxa
@KellyM_1964
Thanks for sharing your thoughts fellas! 
🔥🥳 185 - 117 ... +1034.40u .....+68 more wins than losses!
Posted:
#230
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRabb1t: @fubah2 Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRabb1t: @fubah2 did you ? Yeah, but very small....just a 1/3 unit, as it looked reasonably OK but certainly not great enough to be worthy of posting as a full bet. I'm up over 51+ units on the season but still feel highly skittish about looming regression wiping out a significant portion of my profits My personal history over many years in the same position makes me nervous because each and every time I reached an impressive peak, I then went on a prolonged mix of bets which lost far more than I won. EVERY freakin time!! With experience grows wisdom: "You gotta know when to hold'em, Know when to fold'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run...." I truly understand this personal wisdom approach. You could also put aside part of this gains and get back to standard betting with a resetted bankroll. Anyway great insight here. I just love your share of warnings, thoughts and analysis. Great contribution. @WhiteRabb1t THANKS for the compliment! ....and thanks for sharing your thoughts Yes, I have though about pulling out all my profits and just continuing with a much smaller BR. That way my profits are safe, true..... but that doesn't halt the impending losses from regression - likely to wipe out that reduced BR. Either way, I lose. But what I am doing is still betting but very small - like fractions of a unit... And it has been a mixed bag the past few weeks, losing a little on a handful of bets. No point posting them if I am not confident I would post more winners than losers. Doesn't help anyone. I'll keep tracking my bets privately until I am more confident in the results. BoL with your bets this weekend!
Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRabb1t: @fubah2 Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRabb1t: @fubah2 did you ? Yeah, but very small....just a 1/3 unit, as it looked reasonably OK but certainly not great enough to be worthy of posting as a full bet. I'm up over 51+ units on the season but still feel highly skittish about looming regression wiping out a significant portion of my profits My personal history over many years in the same position makes me nervous because each and every time I reached an impressive peak, I then went on a prolonged mix of bets which lost far more than I won. EVERY freakin time!! With experience grows wisdom: "You gotta know when to hold'em, Know when to fold'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run...." I truly understand this personal wisdom approach. You could also put aside part of this gains and get back to standard betting with a resetted bankroll. Anyway great insight here. I just love your share of warnings, thoughts and analysis. Great contribution. @WhiteRabb1t THANKS for the compliment! ....and thanks for sharing your thoughts Yes, I have though about pulling out all my profits and just continuing with a much smaller BR. That way my profits are safe, true..... but that doesn't halt the impending losses from regression - likely to wipe out that reduced BR. Either way, I lose. But what I am doing is still betting but very small - like fractions of a unit... And it has been a mixed bag the past few weeks, losing a little on a handful of bets. No point posting them if I am not confident I would post more winners than losers. Doesn't help anyone. I'll keep tracking my bets privately until I am more confident in the results. BoL with your bets this weekend!
True. i was more on sharing some thoughts and advice (no complaining about no bets indeed ;))
Reducing BR is a good leveraging method to fight "fear of losses". But if it's not that, no matter.
Reducing wagers is a good method too :)
The thing is to never lower the effort on analysis and skills and value
Posted:
#231
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
DODGERS are only 35 - 20 this season as a HEAVY FAV (-170+)
...losing big time on the juice!!
which included SUPER Heavy losses:
-422 April 15, home v Nats
-311 May 16, home v Reds
-318 May 22, home v Dbacks
-350 May 31, home v Rockies
So they screw the pooch again Sunday
Posted:
#234
I just think are there clear reasons why you won earlier that changed recently.. did you have edges the books missed but they caught up? If neither of these are true, then aren’t you likely to stay ahead with a cold or hot streak as variance?
like in the NFL, you clearly see all teams better after 4 weeks.. But fear of just regression alone seems unsound if you have a winning system over multiple seasons .. you might be missing the beginning of a good hot streak
Posted:
#235
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: DODGERS are only 35 - 20 this season as a HEAVY FAV (-170+) ...losing big time on the juice!! which included SUPER Heavy losses: -422 April 15, home v Nats -311 May 16, home v Reds -318 May 22, home v Dbacks -350 May 31, home v Rockies So they screw the pooch again Sunday
betts out makes it harder
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: DODGERS are only 35 - 20 this season as a HEAVY FAV (-170+) ...losing big time on the juice!! which included SUPER Heavy losses: -422 April 15, home v Nats -311 May 16, home v Reds -318 May 22, home v Dbacks -350 May 31, home v Rockies So they screw the pooch again Sunday
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
Posted:
#236
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
I just think are there clear reasons why you won earlier that changed recently.. did you have edges the books missed but they caught up? If neither of these are true, then aren’t you likely to stay ahead with a cold or hot streak as variance? like in the NFL, you clearly see all teams better after 4 weeks.. But fear of just regression alone seems unsound if you have a winning system over multiple seasons .. you might be missing the beginning of a good hot streak
I just think are there clear reasons why you won earlier that changed recently.. did you have edges the books missed but they caught up? If neither of these are true, then aren’t you likely to stay ahead with a cold or hot streak as variance? like in the NFL, you clearly see all teams better after 4 weeks.. But fear of just regression alone seems unsound if you have a winning system over multiple seasons .. you might be missing the beginning of a good hot streak
@Hoyasaxa
Perhaps. Hard to say specifically. But thanks for your comments!
I do know however, that achieving over +51 net units in only 6 weeks after 3 years away from MLB (all scored as one unit every pick; no multi-unit picks) may itself be the good hot streak - and like all good hot streaks, they will come to an end, usually abruptly and that reverse trend (regression) tends to persist for some time in my style of handicapping - causing significant losses 
Posted:
#237
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
That hot streak for HEAVY HOME FAVS is basically over. (-170 and up)
First 5 days of July, 7 - 8 -8.54u
And the regression-carnage for HEAVY HOME FAVS continues...
HHVs won 2 yesterday, but lost 3 with heavy juice! 
So far, for July: 14 - 14 -12.53u 
A few potential risky bets on tap for Thursday:
Reds, BoSox, Astros...... and maybe Phillies too (if they rise and close -170+)
Posted:
#239
Quote Originally Posted by Zak1:
@fubah2 Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them?
@fubah2 Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them?
@Zak1
Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results.
The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon.
But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS,
whereas the fade would be a significant loss!
Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK
FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely.
BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there! 
Correction: today is July 11 (not 18)
Posted:
#243
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Zak1: @fubah2 Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them? @Zak1 Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results. The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon. But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS, whereas the fade would be a significant loss! Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely. BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
Quote Originally Posted by Zak1: @fubah2 Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them? @Zak1 Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results. The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon. But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS, whereas the fade would be a significant loss! Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely. BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
i used to bet them but not anymore too high the risks
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
Posted:
#244
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Zak1: @fubah2 Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them?
Quote Originally Posted by Zak1: @fubah2 Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them?
@Zak1
Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results.
The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon.
But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS,
whereas the fade would be a significant loss!
Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK
FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely. BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
Timely advice The three big favorites won handily today.
Posted:
#245
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Zak1: @fubah2 Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them? @Zak1 Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results. The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon. But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS, whereas the fade would be a significant loss! Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely. BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Zak1: @fubah2 Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them? @Zak1 Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results. The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon. But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS, whereas the fade would be a significant loss! Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely. BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
Timely advice The three big favorites won handily today.
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
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