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    All Forums | Investments

    JANUARY STOCK TALK PART II

    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
    boiler-room
    wallstreetcappers
    KOAJ
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    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
     
    boiler-room
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:13 PM ET #51

    wall,,,berkshire and the state of ny do a deal for 10 mil in bonds at a premium price that has been higher than recent companies were charging according to berkshire,,,,,this may start to answer our debate of yeserday
    Reply
    wall,,,berkshire and the state of ny do a deal for 10 mil in bonds at a premium price that has been higher than recent companies were charging according to berkshire,,,,,this may start to answer our debate of yeserday
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:19 PM ET #52

    boiler,

    HOW much more of a premium? The industry is regulated, even for fat cats like Buffet.


    Reply
    boiler,

    HOW much more of a premium? The industry is regulated, even for fat cats like Buffet.


     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:25 PM ET #53

    GOOG positive.

    How hilarious     
    Reply
    GOOG positive.

    How hilarious     
     
    boiler-room
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:27 PM ET #54

    i am aware of the regulations,thats not the point,,even if it is just a liitle more,,the question we were debating yest is would people go with berk and  the aaa rating and the security of being with buffet and all because of the solid reputation and be willing to pay a smidge more for it?,,,i thought yes,,not that this one deal means everyone will ,but the name recgnition and rock solid rep will help
    Reply
    i am aware of the regulations,thats not the point,,even if it is just a liitle more,,the question we were debating yest is would people go with berk and  the aaa rating and the security of being with buffet and all because of the solid reputation and be willing to pay a smidge more for it?,,,i thought yes,,not that this one deal means everyone will ,but the name recgnition and rock solid rep will help
     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:31 PM ET #55

    wall - HOV and BZH are in deep shit...

    the rest are in bad shape, but not as bad as hov and bzh

    nothing like writing loans to keep people in your houses...right HOV and BZH? they are both builders and loan originators
    Reply
    wall - HOV and BZH are in deep shit...

    the rest are in bad shape, but not as bad as hov and bzh

    nothing like writing loans to keep people in your houses...right HOV and BZH? they are both builders and loan originators
     
    boiler-room
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:32 PM ET #56

    and how the hell did u go 0-2 yesterday?
    Reply
    and how the hell did u go 0-2 yesterday?
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:33 PM ET #57

    I went 1-1, I assumed that late one was a loser..we got LUCKY on that over.


    Reply
    I went 1-1, I assumed that late one was a loser..we got LUCKY on that over.


     
    boiler-room
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:40 PM ET #58

    sure did,,34 points in the last 3:20,,,wooohooo
    Reply
    sure did,,34 points in the last 3:20,,,wooohooo
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:43 PM ET #59

    cramer giving his two cents on berk bond biz coming up on cnbc tout service,,,,this should be good
    Reply
    cramer giving his two cents on berk bond biz coming up on cnbc tout service,,,,this should be good
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:46 PM ET #60

    Give me the rundown minus the spamming and yelling.  
    Reply
    Give me the rundown minus the spamming and yelling.  
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:52 PM ET #61

    Who should we be buying puts on???? What puts are obvious but not so obvious as to have tremendous premiums on??
    Reply
    Who should we be buying puts on???? What puts are obvious but not so obvious as to have tremendous premiums on??
     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:53 PM ET #62

    wall - for what its worth, mbi needs $1b in capital to keep it's AAA rating from fitch

    no AAA rating, they have to charge more in premiums to make the same money b/c the risk is greater

    i should note that my brother covers these companies for a sell side firm...even he didnt know about MBI's $8b in subprime CDOs that they confessed a few weeks back

    bill ackman, head of pershing square has long been calling for mbi to go bankrupt...not kidding, he's probably been short since the stock was in the 70s
    Reply
    wall - for what its worth, mbi needs $1b in capital to keep it's AAA rating from fitch

    no AAA rating, they have to charge more in premiums to make the same money b/c the risk is greater

    i should note that my brother covers these companies for a sell side firm...even he didnt know about MBI's $8b in subprime CDOs that they confessed a few weeks back

    bill ackman, head of pershing square has long been calling for mbi to go bankrupt...not kidding, he's probably been short since the stock was in the 70s
     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:55 PM ET #63

    Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

    Who should we be buying puts on???? What puts are obvious but not so obvious as to have tremendous premiums on??


    vermeer...take a look at coal companies

    seems like they may be ready to yell timber...also, my company has a nice little metric to detect increased selling by insiders through various means...open market, 10b5, institutions, etc....there's been a lot more 10b5-1 sales in coal companies in the last week +

    keep an eye out...if you can find me an ETF that shorts coal i'm interested

    i think wall knows my firm...its a little boutique data/research shop
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

    Who should we be buying puts on???? What puts are obvious but not so obvious as to have tremendous premiums on??


    vermeer...take a look at coal companies

    seems like they may be ready to yell timber...also, my company has a nice little metric to detect increased selling by insiders through various means...open market, 10b5, institutions, etc....there's been a lot more 10b5-1 sales in coal companies in the last week +

    keep an eye out...if you can find me an ETF that shorts coal i'm interested

    i think wall knows my firm...its a little boutique data/research shop
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 2:58 PM ET #64

    MBI cut div rate today, stock down more.

    All these things are true and right on..but we are talking about a stock dropping from 75 to 12. Plenty of negativity and worst case scenario into the current price.

    This kind of fear mongering talk usually is indicative of a bottom..not calling it but when people talk about BK, you can make a nice return if you risk correctly.

    Remember WCG? BK talk, stock is 100% higher from that time..

    I dont think MBI goes under..nor do I think IMB goes under, or the homebuilders I listed that are PRICED as if they are.
    Reply
    MBI cut div rate today, stock down more.

    All these things are true and right on..but we are talking about a stock dropping from 75 to 12. Plenty of negativity and worst case scenario into the current price.

    This kind of fear mongering talk usually is indicative of a bottom..not calling it but when people talk about BK, you can make a nice return if you risk correctly.

    Remember WCG? BK talk, stock is 100% higher from that time..

    I dont think MBI goes under..nor do I think IMB goes under, or the homebuilders I listed that are PRICED as if they are.
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 3:03 PM ET #65

    FSLR rallying like a MO-FO..

    Intra-day low of 208, now 225


    Reply
    FSLR rallying like a MO-FO..

    Intra-day low of 208, now 225


     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 3:06 PM ET #66

    Koaj,

    Sure you saw this already-

    MBI plan
    Reply
    Koaj,

    Sure you saw this already-

    MBI plan
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 3:14 PM ET #67

    wcg,,
    Reply
    wcg,,
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 3:26 PM ET #68

    article dated nov 28 07



    he (Ackman)seems so assured of his bet against bond insurers that he says he will donate the more than $500 million he expects to earn from those short positions to charity.

    Mr. Ackman, who heads Pershing Square Capital Management, told the Value Investing Congress that he expects the holding companies of MBIA and Ambac Financial, the two largest bond insurers, to fail as soon as next year. He said he stands to gain about $500 million if MBIA fails, and his hedge fund several billions of dollars if both fail. (His personal gains would go to the Pershing Square Foundation, he said.)

    “We’re short the holding companies because we think they’ll run out of cash and go bankrupt,” Mr. Ackman, who first criticized MBIA in a 2002 report, told Bloomberg News. “What I said at the time to regulators and anyone who would listen is that this is a problem now, but it’s going to be a bigger problem later.”

    Reply

    article dated nov 28 07



    he (Ackman)seems so assured of his bet against bond insurers that he says he will donate the more than $500 million he expects to earn from those short positions to charity.

    Mr. Ackman, who heads Pershing Square Capital Management, told the Value Investing Congress that he expects the holding companies of MBIA and Ambac Financial, the two largest bond insurers, to fail as soon as next year. He said he stands to gain about $500 million if MBIA fails, and his hedge fund several billions of dollars if both fail. (His personal gains would go to the Pershing Square Foundation, he said.)

    “We’re short the holding companies because we think they’ll run out of cash and go bankrupt,” Mr. Ackman, who first criticized MBIA in a 2002 report, told Bloomberg News. “What I said at the time to regulators and anyone who would listen is that this is a problem now, but it’s going to be a bigger problem later.”

     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 3:31 PM ET #69

    Reply
     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 3:54 PM ET #70

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    MBI cut div rate today, stock down more.



    This kind of fear mongering talk usually is indicative of a bottom..not calling it but when people talk about BK, you can make a nice return if you risk correctly.

    Remember WCG? BK talk, stock is 100% higher from that time..



    apples and oranges

    the fbi raided wcg's offices b/c of fudged records

    the debt insured by mbi, abk, sca et al have us staring at a credit collapse in the US
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    MBI cut div rate today, stock down more.



    This kind of fear mongering talk usually is indicative of a bottom..not calling it but when people talk about BK, you can make a nice return if you risk correctly.

    Remember WCG? BK talk, stock is 100% higher from that time..



    apples and oranges

    the fbi raided wcg's offices b/c of fudged records

    the debt insured by mbi, abk, sca et al have us staring at a credit collapse in the US
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 3:56 PM ET #71

    Koaj,

     I cannot discover an ultrashort coal (or simple short ) coal specific fund at the moment. I think I would prefer to short specific coal companies, because from previous research I recall one or two being positioned to cater to Chinese, not American demand. (Virginia Resources(?) or something similar to that split up for that reason into two entities for that reason, if I recall it correctly.

      Anyway, will keep looking into it....

    Oh and as son as I mentioned SKF, it plummets from its day high...sheesh...
    Reply
    Koaj,

     I cannot discover an ultrashort coal (or simple short ) coal specific fund at the moment. I think I would prefer to short specific coal companies, because from previous research I recall one or two being positioned to cater to Chinese, not American demand. (Virginia Resources(?) or something similar to that split up for that reason into two entities for that reason, if I recall it correctly.

      Anyway, will keep looking into it....

    Oh and as son as I mentioned SKF, it plummets from its day high...sheesh...
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 4:00 PM ET #72

    Koaj,

    Fear is fear period.

    We didnt know why the FBI raided WCG, and the stock is still way below prices before the raid.

    That hedgie will either make a mint or lose his job making a article like that.

    We will look back and there will be a reward for those who took reasonable risks when the market is dumping.
    Reply
    Koaj,

    Fear is fear period.

    We didnt know why the FBI raided WCG, and the stock is still way below prices before the raid.

    That hedgie will either make a mint or lose his job making a article like that.

    We will look back and there will be a reward for those who took reasonable risks when the market is dumping.
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 4:10 PM ET #73

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Koaj,

    We will look back and there will be a reward for those who took reasonable risks when the market is dumping.


    at this point, what is reasonable? which financial do you want to buy? which do you like?

    how long do you want to deal with a sideways stock, praying they dont announce another few billion in writeoffs

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Koaj,

    We will look back and there will be a reward for those who took reasonable risks when the market is dumping.


    at this point, what is reasonable? which financial do you want to buy? which do you like?

    how long do you want to deal with a sideways stock, praying they dont announce another few billion in writeoffs

     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 4:11 PM ET #74


     Ackman also is the same guy who bought Target near its top and has lost a lot on it since...

    Reply

     Ackman also is the same guy who bought Target near its top and has lost a lot on it since...

     
     
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    Posted: Jan. 9, 2008 - 4:41 PM ET #75


      What amazes me is that lately we seemed doomed to repeat the same stupid mistakes over and over again. Nothing learned at all from the S&L crisis...the dot com meltdown...the telecom meltdown. Why do we repeat this shit decade after decade??

    Reply

      What amazes me is that lately we seemed doomed to repeat the same stupid mistakes over and over again. Nothing learned at all from the S&L crisis...the dot com meltdown...the telecom meltdown. Why do we repeat this shit decade after decade??

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