JANUARY STOCK TALK PART II
the rest are in bad shape, but not as bad as hov and bzh
nothing like writing loans to keep people in your houses...right HOV and BZH? they are both builders and loan originators
the rest are in bad shape, but not as bad as hov and bzh
nothing like writing loans to keep people in your houses...right HOV and BZH? they are both builders and loan originators
no AAA rating, they have to charge more in premiums to make the same money b/c the risk is greater
i should note that my brother covers these companies for a sell side firm...even he didnt know about MBI's $8b in subprime CDOs that they confessed a few weeks back
bill ackman, head of pershing square has long been calling for mbi to go bankrupt...not kidding, he's probably been short since the stock was in the 70s
no AAA rating, they have to charge more in premiums to make the same money b/c the risk is greater
i should note that my brother covers these companies for a sell side firm...even he didnt know about MBI's $8b in subprime CDOs that they confessed a few weeks back
bill ackman, head of pershing square has long been calling for mbi to go bankrupt...not kidding, he's probably been short since the stock was in the 70s
Who should we be buying puts on???? What puts are obvious but not so obvious as to have tremendous premiums on??
vermeer...take a look at coal companies
seems like they may be ready to yell timber...also, my company has a nice little metric to detect increased selling by insiders through various means...open market, 10b5, institutions, etc....there's been a lot more 10b5-1 sales in coal companies in the last week +
keep an eye out...if you can find me an ETF that shorts coal i'm interested
i think wall knows my firm...its a little boutique data/research shop
Who should we be buying puts on???? What puts are obvious but not so obvious as to have tremendous premiums on??
vermeer...take a look at coal companies
seems like they may be ready to yell timber...also, my company has a nice little metric to detect increased selling by insiders through various means...open market, 10b5, institutions, etc....there's been a lot more 10b5-1 sales in coal companies in the last week +
keep an eye out...if you can find me an ETF that shorts coal i'm interested
i think wall knows my firm...its a little boutique data/research shop
All these things are true and right on..but we are talking about a stock dropping from 75 to 12. Plenty of negativity and worst case scenario into the current price.
This kind of fear mongering talk usually is indicative of a bottom..not calling it but when people talk about BK, you can make a nice return if you risk correctly.
Remember WCG? BK talk, stock is 100% higher from that time..
I dont think MBI goes under..nor do I think IMB goes under, or the homebuilders I listed that are PRICED as if they are.
All these things are true and right on..but we are talking about a stock dropping from 75 to 12. Plenty of negativity and worst case scenario into the current price.
This kind of fear mongering talk usually is indicative of a bottom..not calling it but when people talk about BK, you can make a nice return if you risk correctly.
Remember WCG? BK talk, stock is 100% higher from that time..
I dont think MBI goes under..nor do I think IMB goes under, or the homebuilders I listed that are PRICED as if they are.
article dated nov 28 07
he (Ackman)seems so assured of his bet against bond insurers that he says he will donate the more than $500 million he expects to earn from those short positions to charity.
Mr. Ackman, who heads Pershing Square Capital Management, told the Value Investing Congress that he expects the holding companies of MBIA and Ambac Financial, the two largest bond insurers, to fail as soon as next year. He said he stands to gain about $500 million if MBIA fails, and his hedge fund several billions of dollars if both fail. (His personal gains would go to the Pershing Square Foundation, he said.)
“We’re short the holding companies because we think they’ll run out of cash and go bankrupt,” Mr. Ackman, who first criticized MBIA in a 2002 report, told Bloomberg News. “What I said at the time to regulators and anyone who would listen is that this is a problem now, but it’s going to be a bigger problem later.”
article dated nov 28 07
he (Ackman)seems so assured of his bet against bond insurers that he says he will donate the more than $500 million he expects to earn from those short positions to charity.
Mr. Ackman, who heads Pershing Square Capital Management, told the Value Investing Congress that he expects the holding companies of MBIA and Ambac Financial, the two largest bond insurers, to fail as soon as next year. He said he stands to gain about $500 million if MBIA fails, and his hedge fund several billions of dollars if both fail. (His personal gains would go to the Pershing Square Foundation, he said.)
“We’re short the holding companies because we think they’ll run out of cash and go bankrupt,” Mr. Ackman, who first criticized MBIA in a 2002 report, told Bloomberg News. “What I said at the time to regulators and anyone who would listen is that this is a problem now, but it’s going to be a bigger problem later.”
MBI cut div rate today, stock down more.
This kind of fear mongering talk usually is indicative of a bottom..not calling it but when people talk about BK, you can make a nice return if you risk correctly.
Remember WCG? BK talk, stock is 100% higher from that time..
apples and oranges
the fbi raided wcg's offices b/c of fudged records
the debt insured by mbi, abk, sca et al have us staring at a credit collapse in the US
MBI cut div rate today, stock down more.
This kind of fear mongering talk usually is indicative of a bottom..not calling it but when people talk about BK, you can make a nice return if you risk correctly.
Remember WCG? BK talk, stock is 100% higher from that time..
apples and oranges
the fbi raided wcg's offices b/c of fudged records
the debt insured by mbi, abk, sca et al have us staring at a credit collapse in the US
I cannot discover an ultrashort coal (or simple short ) coal specific fund at the moment. I think I would prefer to short specific coal companies, because from previous research I recall one or two being positioned to cater to Chinese, not American demand. (Virginia Resources(?) or something similar to that split up for that reason into two entities for that reason, if I recall it correctly.
Anyway, will keep looking into it....
Oh and as son as I mentioned SKF, it plummets from its day high...sheesh...
I cannot discover an ultrashort coal (or simple short ) coal specific fund at the moment. I think I would prefer to short specific coal companies, because from previous research I recall one or two being positioned to cater to Chinese, not American demand. (Virginia Resources(?) or something similar to that split up for that reason into two entities for that reason, if I recall it correctly.
Anyway, will keep looking into it....
Oh and as son as I mentioned SKF, it plummets from its day high...sheesh...
Fear is fear period.
We didnt know why the FBI raided WCG, and the stock is still way below prices before the raid.
That hedgie will either make a mint or lose his job making a article like that.
We will look back and there will be a reward for those who took reasonable risks when the market is dumping.
Fear is fear period.
We didnt know why the FBI raided WCG, and the stock is still way below prices before the raid.
That hedgie will either make a mint or lose his job making a article like that.
We will look back and there will be a reward for those who took reasonable risks when the market is dumping.
Koaj,
We will look back and there will be a reward for those who took reasonable risks when the market is dumping.
at this point, what is reasonable? which financial do you want to buy? which do you like?
how long do you want to deal with a sideways stock, praying they dont announce another few billion in writeoffs
Koaj,
We will look back and there will be a reward for those who took reasonable risks when the market is dumping.
at this point, what is reasonable? which financial do you want to buy? which do you like?
how long do you want to deal with a sideways stock, praying they dont announce another few billion in writeoffs
What amazes me is that lately we seemed doomed to repeat the same stupid mistakes over and over again. Nothing learned at all from the S&L crisis...the dot com meltdown...the telecom meltdown. Why do we repeat this shit decade after decade??
What amazes me is that lately we seemed doomed to repeat the same stupid mistakes over and over again. Nothing learned at all from the S&L crisis...the dot com meltdown...the telecom meltdown. Why do we repeat this shit decade after decade??
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