Posted:
#101
thats right wall,,okie over to the bank,,not to mention an undefeated nite for me,,,
,,,,,by the way,,sho is a farce,,,no enforecment
,,,,,by the way,,sho is a farce,,,no enforecmentDecember Stock Talk II
Posted:
#103
Got it WSC, and completely understand your point...dog and pony show,
Just saw Marty Whitman on CNBC and he owns AMBAC, RADIAN, MAGiC, etc etc..."distressed" stocks that only required "captital infusions." Now I am distressed and need an infusion, of alcohol in my coffee.
My God.
I see nothing but bad news ahead in 2008, think these guys have no clue about the depths we are entering, but I do trust Marty's aged mind...a dilemma indeeed. How is it that Bill Gross and I seem to be the only ones who think we are already in a recession???
Posted:
#104
.Damn, I hate being on the same side of things as that a-hole Greenspan (someone really should tell that guy he is retired, thank God for everyone) ...maybe I should not be so damn gloomy about 2008...from Schaeffer's:
Schaeffer's addendum: The contrarian in me bubbles to a full boil when, for 2008: 1. Short selling is viewed as a strategy whose time has finally come. The market is already underpinned by record short interest and record put open interest. 2. Alan Greenspan is gloomy about the economic outlook. Mr. Greenspan's dismal economic forecasting record almost demands a fading of his pessimistic views.
Schaeffer's addendum: The contrarian in me bubbles to a full boil when, for 2008: 1. Short selling is viewed as a strategy whose time has finally come. The market is already underpinned by record short interest and record put open interest. 2. Alan Greenspan is gloomy about the economic outlook. Mr. Greenspan's dismal economic forecasting record almost demands a fading of his pessimistic views.
Posted:
#105
Oh, and yesterday I heard from a guy within Circuit City that that hapless company is offering money to try and keep execs, (@1 million depending) but the kicker is you have to stay until 2010. After their earnings report, ya gotta wonder if they will even be around by then! Could not happen to a better group of jerks.
Posted:
#106
Nice call last night Boiler, of course I had it because of the recco..haha..excellent 2H, they came out blazing, I had the game on for a few.
Vermeer, people really dont listen to Bill unless we are in the situation..is he ever not gloom and doom? The guy looks like walking death. Bond guys dont like the market usually and for the years he has been on, he never likes the market.
CC needs a MAJOR overhaul, at least the stores in my area..the layouts suck, lighting is terrible, they are cramped and small, selection isnt good. I dont like shopping there unless I have one thing in mind and it is on sale. Best Buy on the other hand does it correctly...
Vermeer, people really dont listen to Bill unless we are in the situation..is he ever not gloom and doom? The guy looks like walking death. Bond guys dont like the market usually and for the years he has been on, he never likes the market.
CC needs a MAJOR overhaul, at least the stores in my area..the layouts suck, lighting is terrible, they are cramped and small, selection isnt good. I dont like shopping there unless I have one thing in mind and it is on sale. Best Buy on the other hand does it correctly...
Posted:
#107
circuit city blows,,,that place sucks balls,,,,,,best buy is much better,,,,48 point first half last nite i thought would bury us wall,,,,,,,,,,,,,but no, a winner
,,,,,this market is up 200 points why exactly?..........this day is a joke at work,,sittin around drinkin wine right now,,,,some guy put in an order to buy mgam earlier today,,it made me think ,,i know that stock,,,,turns out mgam was a stock that we were made to push about ten years ago at this chop shop that i worked at,,with all the pieces of shit that we pushed back then,after looking at mgam real quick ,it appears that it is the only one that turned out to be a ''real'' stock,,,i mean it made it this far ,has a real biusness,,not bab considering every other company is long gone that we ''touted'',,,,,,,,ah the bad old days,,if im going to hell that part of my life will be a contributing factor,,,,,on the up and up now,not to worry,right wall?....wall will vouch for me,,,,back with picks after the bell
,,,,,this market is up 200 points why exactly?..........this day is a joke at work,,sittin around drinkin wine right now,,,,some guy put in an order to buy mgam earlier today,,it made me think ,,i know that stock,,,,turns out mgam was a stock that we were made to push about ten years ago at this chop shop that i worked at,,with all the pieces of shit that we pushed back then,after looking at mgam real quick ,it appears that it is the only one that turned out to be a ''real'' stock,,,i mean it made it this far ,has a real biusness,,not bab considering every other company is long gone that we ''touted'',,,,,,,,ah the bad old days,,if im going to hell that part of my life will be a contributing factor,,,,,on the up and up now,not to worry,right wall?....wall will vouch for me,,,,back with picks after the bell
Posted:
#109
u know whats funny wall?,,some guys i remember were selling like 40,000 50,000 share blocks to some clients in the 1.50 to 2.00$ with warrants attached that kicked in at like 4 bucks or some shit,,i doubt those people held it but im sure a few people did and they made a fffiiinnnn killing on mgam,,ironic stuff,,,,,some guy brought in a $ 400 bottle of wine so im having some,,not really a wine guy,,,in about ten minutes ill be out of here and hittin the town,,new york city around the holidays ,,,u cant beat it,,,,,i had the over in the utah game last nite in most part because canucks playbook said the under was a lock,,,,that loser never picked an under on this site yet,,it had to lose
Posted:
#111
come on now wall,of all the people on here you take my picks?....dont inflate my ego,,,,i do ok especially in coll. sports,,,,,,,ok for now,,in coll. hoops,georgia over,,,pepperdine,,they have been good to me so far,,,,over in the bowl game,,,,,,in the nba orlando over and denver,,,port has won and covered 10 in a row i think,,,,check back for updates
Posted:
#117
denver is in,,we cashed wall,,,4-1 2nite,,,3-0 last nite [2-0 posted],,,if i didnt put in that disclaimer some hater would say i fudging my record,,,,,,big couple of days comin up,,,got my book on the ropes so far this week,up a nice hunk of loot,,ill be careful but not conservative,,proper money manag. the rest of the weekend and i should be ok while still going for his throat,,,
Posted:
#119
wall,, i saw in another thread u talked about the drive home from vegas,,,i think u live some whrere near phoenix right?,,,,,anyway when my buddy and i visited my friend who went to asu in the early 90's, we drove from phoenix to vegas while we were there,,,,,worst ride of my life,,,,,,,,we leave phoenix at like 9 pm ,its rainy and shitty ,its early nov,,,,,i just remember driving on a two lane highway seemingly in the middle of nowhere,,no radio stations came in,,pitch dark so nothin to see,,although i do remember seeing a jail in the rainy foggy distance about an hour into the trip,,,,good thing we had a few beers and some food,,,there were also a ton of crosses every couple of miles it seemed on the side of the road where people had bought it,,no suprising,18 wheelers goin90 passin you on a skinny two lane highway,,,,,,,the good part though was when u go over hoover dam and u curve down the mountain then all of a sudden,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,you can start to see the lights of vegas,,,pretty cool ,the first time there was on this car ride from phoenix,,,,,,it was all a blur after we got into town ,,,,makes me feel lucky to have a 2hr straight shot down the garden stste parkway to go to a. c.,,,,,,but ac is no vegas,,getting better though,,,,,,,,,,,sleep time
Posted:
#120
Shifting gears on you guys here, but is anyone looking at DUG. I've been waiting for oil to crack $95 and I was going to jump in. However, maybe I'm reading the situation incorrectly, and should be buying for other reason(s) too, other then just the whole global slow down theroy/demand for oil. I read this guy over in Yahoo (I know I know, but at least he makes a coherant case), and he makes a bunch of sense to me:
"The daily machinations should not concern you at all these price levels. I believe it was J Livermore (read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator) who said that the top and bottom eighths are the most expensive eighths you every pay for. I think the risk reward profile at this level leans mightily towards high reward with low risk. In the long run, this will act as a poor investment, but in the next 6-9 months you should be able to achieve at least 50% gains.
My reason for being here is not because I'm bearish on energy. Energy is a flat out bull for many...many more years. My reason for being here is strictly based on the thesis that there will be a massive credit deflation that will fall upon the globe in 08. Folks will sell all asset classes to raise cash. DUG has been pounded for 9 months. Other short etfs have higher entries and have not seen the correction that DUG has had (therefore they risk/reward looks less compelling)
Don't be distracted by the central banks around the world touting that they have "injected" billions of dollars into the system. The money center banks around the world have such destructive assets on their balance sheets that they are starved for equity capital not liquidity. A loan (liquidity) by a central bank is not equity. In order for the loan to become equity, the banks must lend out the new money. Ask yourself who will the banks lend to? Consumers? Leveraged to the hilt in a declining income environment. Capital infrastructure? Like what…more manufacturing? Ask the Japanese about that and look at what China has done over the last 7 years. Real estate development? No need to say anything about that since we all know that globally there is a glut of homes.
Libor hasn’t budged much at all considering CB’s around the world have “injected” 600+bil in “liquidity” into the system. In addition, and all the while, US treasuries are near the bottom of historical lows with US $ moving higher.
Credit has driven this asset ride over the last 30 years. When the credit dries up so do asset prices. IMO, one should view a stake in DUG as a position to capitalize on the global crisis rather than a stake against declining gas and oil stocks"
My reason for being here is not because I'm bearish on energy. Energy is a flat out bull for many...many more years. My reason for being here is strictly based on the thesis that there will be a massive credit deflation that will fall upon the globe in 08. Folks will sell all asset classes to raise cash. DUG has been pounded for 9 months. Other short etfs have higher entries and have not seen the correction that DUG has had (therefore they risk/reward looks less compelling)
Don't be distracted by the central banks around the world touting that they have "injected" billions of dollars into the system. The money center banks around the world have such destructive assets on their balance sheets that they are starved for equity capital not liquidity. A loan (liquidity) by a central bank is not equity. In order for the loan to become equity, the banks must lend out the new money. Ask yourself who will the banks lend to? Consumers? Leveraged to the hilt in a declining income environment. Capital infrastructure? Like what…more manufacturing? Ask the Japanese about that and look at what China has done over the last 7 years. Real estate development? No need to say anything about that since we all know that globally there is a glut of homes.
Libor hasn’t budged much at all considering CB’s around the world have “injected” 600+bil in “liquidity” into the system. In addition, and all the while, US treasuries are near the bottom of historical lows with US $ moving higher.
Credit has driven this asset ride over the last 30 years. When the credit dries up so do asset prices. IMO, one should view a stake in DUG as a position to capitalize on the global crisis rather than a stake against declining gas and oil stocks"
On Cincy and BYU right now, and probably Nevada for no other reason than I should probably take a dog at some point.
Posted:
#122
Boiler,
That is the exact trip..it is terrible. We have Indian casinos here, but no table games like craps that I like.
The drive is brutal..enough that I never go over there. When we first moved here I went a few times, but no thanks now.
In another year they will have a bypass over the Hoover Dam, they needed that 30 yrs ago..
That is the exact trip..it is terrible. We have Indian casinos here, but no table games like craps that I like.
The drive is brutal..enough that I never go over there. When we first moved here I went a few times, but no thanks now.
In another year they will have a bypass over the Hoover Dam, they needed that 30 yrs ago..
Posted:
#123
Well, no matter what Bill Gross may look like he looks better than Keith Richards, who IS walking death!! Alan Greenspan isn't exactly a picture of mental or physcal health either...heheh...afraid I am in the camp that sees a major problem in 08, and no it isn't a political fraud in pantsuits...
From a newsletter..
Consumer spending in November was very strong, the largest rise in two years. So why would Bill Gross of Pimco suggest that the economy probably slipped into recession this month? Because weekly surveys suggest the November spending boom may not be sustained. Holiday sales declined in the seven days ended Dec. 15 for the third straight week, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp. This year's holiday season may be the weakest since 2002, according to the National Retail Federation. And we were coming off a recession. (Bloomberg)
That would be consistent with a recently published report by Merrill Lynch Chief Economist David Rosenberg suggesting a 100% probability of a recession. Reading from his latest writing:
"We recently unveiled a new recession probability indicator that uses the shape of the yield curve (10-year note/3-month LIBOR) and corporate spreads (Baa) to predict the probability of a recession within the next 12 months. (The model is based on a recent Fed paper, which used the 10/2-year yield curve and Aa spreads.) The results are striking: taking into account corporate spreads, the model is flashing a 100% chance of a recession in the next year, up from 75% in October and essentially zero in the summer. Looking at history, the model did a pretty good job predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions. In December 1989, recession odds jumped to 95%, and by August 1990 an official recession had set in. Similarly, the model was showing 100% recession odds in October 2000; by September 2001, the economy was in an official downturn."
From a newsletter..
Consumer spending in November was very strong, the largest rise in two years. So why would Bill Gross of Pimco suggest that the economy probably slipped into recession this month? Because weekly surveys suggest the November spending boom may not be sustained. Holiday sales declined in the seven days ended Dec. 15 for the third straight week, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp. This year's holiday season may be the weakest since 2002, according to the National Retail Federation. And we were coming off a recession. (Bloomberg)
That would be consistent with a recently published report by Merrill Lynch Chief Economist David Rosenberg suggesting a 100% probability of a recession. Reading from his latest writing:
"We recently unveiled a new recession probability indicator that uses the shape of the yield curve (10-year note/3-month LIBOR) and corporate spreads (Baa) to predict the probability of a recession within the next 12 months. (The model is based on a recent Fed paper, which used the 10/2-year yield curve and Aa spreads.) The results are striking: taking into account corporate spreads, the model is flashing a 100% chance of a recession in the next year, up from 75% in October and essentially zero in the summer. Looking at history, the model did a pretty good job predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions. In December 1989, recession odds jumped to 95%, and by August 1990 an official recession had set in. Similarly, the model was showing 100% recession odds in October 2000; by September 2001, the economy was in an official downturn."
Posted:
#125
Yup...gotta have two talking heads on opposite sides to make a show...
I wish I had shorted CC stock (woulda coulda and shoulda) as I have known how awful their situation was for years...it was too close to see I suppose. And despite being bearish I have the tendency to look for upside trades rather than downside.That has got to change in the coming years for US stocks in particular.
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