Posted:
#51
Took HLIT off the watchlist. There was some good short-term support at that $10 level, but now thats broken, who knows where it will land.December Stock Talk II
Posted:
#52
From a newsletter that has been spot on for the most part.Stagflation, ah bringing back the good old days...
1% Growth plus 4.3% Inflation = Stagflation
I wrote three years ago that the best end result of keeping interest rates so low for so long would be a mild stagflation, and here we are. This quarter will see 4% inflation with a probability of 1% growth, so what should the Fed do? Fight inflation with rate hikes or standing pat? Or fight a recession with rate cuts?
If we are going into a recession, and I think we are, then that is by definition deflationary. When we have two asset bubbles bursting at the same time that is deflationary. Inflation will not be a problem in six months if we do not jump start the credit markets.
1% Growth plus 4.3% Inflation = Stagflation
I wrote three years ago that the best end result of keeping interest rates so low for so long would be a mild stagflation, and here we are. This quarter will see 4% inflation with a probability of 1% growth, so what should the Fed do? Fight inflation with rate hikes or standing pat? Or fight a recession with rate cuts?
If we are going into a recession, and I think we are, then that is by definition deflationary. When we have two asset bubbles bursting at the same time that is deflationary. Inflation will not be a problem in six months if we do not jump start the credit markets.
Posted:
#53
Vermeer,
Exactly..
The Fed took the poison pill before the last election to secure Bush getting back into office and now we will pay for the decision.
Watch the ripple effect when the US economy starts to slow and the FED has no more ammunition..it is not going to be pretty.
Higher rates will crush this market as it will probably prop the dollar and smash foreign investment in our markets.
I have waited for this to happen going back a few yrs and who knows if it takes a few more, but it will happen for sure.
Exactly..
The Fed took the poison pill before the last election to secure Bush getting back into office and now we will pay for the decision.
Watch the ripple effect when the US economy starts to slow and the FED has no more ammunition..it is not going to be pretty.
Higher rates will crush this market as it will probably prop the dollar and smash foreign investment in our markets.
I have waited for this to happen going back a few yrs and who knows if it takes a few more, but it will happen for sure.
Posted:
#57
FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Those 500 shares short of SPY (147ish basis) are finally in the money.
Never got a margin call. Amazing, but the fees for going on the margin in the first place ain't on the house.
Need the SPY to go in the shitter today, for sure.
This should've been a strong, solid trade placed over time a couple of weeks ago.
Damn what a f--ing aggravating 2 weeks. Hope the horror has been lifted.
Posted:
#61
WSC-
How's it going, man. Those damn 500 SPY shorts pretty much kept my sorry ass away last week.....just had nothing to offer. Finally the goddarn thing is in the money....."should've" not taken so long, but am now hopping this whole day while hand-wringing over every uptick/downtick.
I have no idea how you guys trade constantly.
I was skeerit sheetless the last 2 weeks on the brink of a margin call.....had horror visions of the damn thing going to 160ish and losing 7500 stones plus margin fees.
DRYS looks like it'll "eventually" re-test 70. Don't follow it, but am hoping your March calls paint it black for you.
Yeah, I just don't have the balls to short FSLR. That seemed like a no brainer today once the manipulators made it clear early on that they weren't in the mood today to bust its shorts. Now, it's down 12ish points, and I am sitting here looking like an a55hole for calling it and being too much of a chicken sheet to put up the money. But you are so right......the manipulators could run this thing at any second.
How in the hell can I get on the manipulator team??? That must be pretty damn nice to just move ticker symbols wherever you please!!!!!!!
Cheers
Posted:
#62
CC,
You always have insight to offer, even if you are getting beat on the market (like myself lately)
I am 60 cents underwater on my options and I havent had them an hour..hilarious.
We were both wrong about FSLR, about 100 plus points wrong. I have been skeptical of the stock from the beginning..a big mistake I didnt hop on it when that friend mentioned it at 30 bucks.
The only way I can trade is by feel and technicals..thats once I feel confident in the stock based on fundamentals or that the reward is worth the gamble..and then try to play it the best way possible and not let any trade get the best of you.
So did you margin a large extend on the trade? If you went all cash on the short, then you wouldnt get a margin call anyway..if you have margin on a short position, but you bot it as a full cash trade (meaning equal to the cash you had available) if the trade goes against you, the firm just eats away at your margin, charging you margin interest...
You always have insight to offer, even if you are getting beat on the market (like myself lately)
I am 60 cents underwater on my options and I havent had them an hour..hilarious.
We were both wrong about FSLR, about 100 plus points wrong. I have been skeptical of the stock from the beginning..a big mistake I didnt hop on it when that friend mentioned it at 30 bucks.
The only way I can trade is by feel and technicals..thats once I feel confident in the stock based on fundamentals or that the reward is worth the gamble..and then try to play it the best way possible and not let any trade get the best of you.
So did you margin a large extend on the trade? If you went all cash on the short, then you wouldnt get a margin call anyway..if you have margin on a short position, but you bot it as a full cash trade (meaning equal to the cash you had available) if the trade goes against you, the firm just eats away at your margin, charging you margin interest...
Posted:
#63
Yeah, I margined a HUGE extension. Was crazy in retrospect, but I've never been wrong when doing it in the past.
I am freakin doing cartwheels and backflips today that I am in the money on this trade today.
I think peeps who trade of what old fart Greenspan thinks are fools, but I am happy that old fart took the market down today.
what Alan Greenspan thinks
Posted:
#64
WSC-
Over the "long haul," FSLR will end up in the crapper. But if it goes to 3-400 first before back to earth, it won't shock me one bit.
The manipulators could run a deadly squeeze this thing to 400 on any positive deal or news inside of 2 weeks.
I need inside info on how this thing is going to get moved.
Posted:
#65
Yeah, FSLR could go to 300 or higher..but when I look at their business compared to others in the group I just dont see them as the winner technology wise.
DRYS is down today because of an investment then made, I think it is a smart investment to be honest, but the market doesnt like it today.
Greenspam got away with murder...yet since the market went up up up, everyone loved the guy.
Not me.......
DRYS is down today because of an investment then made, I think it is a smart investment to be honest, but the market doesnt like it today.
Greenspam got away with murder...yet since the market went up up up, everyone loved the guy.
Not me.......
Posted:
#73
WCG: Lots of speculation on what happened today; everything from an accidental sell to stops being set to tight. It's down now in after hours. I will be watching and if it dips back into the 30's, I'm probably a buyer. I got stopped out a while back at $37.50, and would like to get back in at a reasonable valuation verses risk.
Speaking of banks, I've added regional bank HBAN to my watchlist. Currently trading near it's 52 week low and has a 7.5% dividend. Plus, speculation of a buyout in 08 (Wells Fargo?).
Banks. Is it to early to be buying them, probably. Will they cut their dividends, maybe. But to the best of our knowledge, they are trading below book, how can you not at least be looking at them.
Posted:
#74
Grid,
The BIG guys bank wise.
I am not afraid of owning stocks like BAC or C or WFC at these prices..longer term even if you take a hit now, the odds are sliding to your favor and I cannot see these guys dropping dividends.
If even ONE drops dividends it will CRUSH the stock...no way they take that risk.
The BIG guys bank wise.
I am not afraid of owning stocks like BAC or C or WFC at these prices..longer term even if you take a hit now, the odds are sliding to your favor and I cannot see these guys dropping dividends.
If even ONE drops dividends it will CRUSH the stock...no way they take that risk.
Hot Forum Topics
