Posted:
#126
HLIT is silently creeping up each day 
December Stock Talk I
Posted:
#131
Quote Originally Posted by july4433:
Nice POT short trade sasquatches, congrats. Yeah, I'm just going to log off now and try to extract the boot that got stuck in my ass with USO, but oil will come back sooner or later on my buy and hold.
I am considering USO for a long term investment as well. Something to sock away for 5 years when I fully expect the world to be functioning normally again. Only thing holding me back is the continued development of alternative energy sources. Have you considered this in your analysis? Do you think this poses a legitimate risk to the value of oil down the road?
Posted:
#132
Good question, emerging market countries without much extra money per customer (hell I could even be talking about the USA the way we are going) are going to burn 40,50,60,70,80,ect. dollar oil. The developing energy plays are more for electrical means and the power grid (not for instantly replacing the fossil fuel combustable engine), but who can afford, or wants to pay $40,000 for a GM volt, 7 or 8 grand for a natural gas fill up car modification kit, Car companies still like fossil fuel combustable engines partly because electrical automobiles have less moving parts to replace, less to repair, ect. a seperate parts industry for fossil fuel combustible engines is an important employment generating, tax revenue generating, ect. industry in and of itself. How much will natural gas increase in price (be less cost competitive with oil at 70 dollars a barrel or gas at 2.50 per gallon) when we drive our cars with natural gas, power our plants with natural gas, heat our homes with natural gas, ect. ? Why is GM temporarily suspending the GM volt engine development? Because they need oil and gas at $3.50 and above for it to be cost competitive enough for consumers to even consider it. It all boils down to cost efficiency. Talk about $150 a barrel oil, and gas at $4.50 a gallon and then alternative energy versus the combustible engine is much more cost efficient. Oil is so cheap right now, people are not forced to change their habits in the US (nor can many of them afford it) yet alone the emerging markets, China, India, ect. which have much less cash (or credit) per customer. Hopefully a "Manhattan Project" comes along to make the alternative automobile technology at a cost competitive basis, but capitalism and profits are going to burn this cheap oil until it goes high enough to once again become cost competitive and painful at the pump IMO. Market forces will drive oil up again, but right now on the way down oil is temporarily at the mercy of the hedge funds, just like it was at $140+. Oil has been the most efficient fossil fuel for combustible engines for around 100 years for good reason. That can't be changed overnight, again, for good reason. Henry Ford thought alcohol was the answer, but we can see that creating alcohol burns lots of oil to harvest it, electricity to create it, oil to ship it, ect. Everything has it's price, and that's why oil has always won because it was always at the cheapest price especially at 40,50,60,ect. dollars a barrel.
Posted:
#134
IMO, oil will see $65-75 sometime next year, making USO and DXO nice plays. I don't care what it does short-term, because I know it's going higher. Covered POT at $71.75 pre-market yesterday. MOS ran up 10 points after its warning. Didn't post but had a nice gain in SRS from $54 to $64. I may take off the rest of 2008 unless something gets too tempting. I remember this time last year, FSLR was trading around $275. Look at where it is today.
Posted:
#136
Depeche,
They are losing market share..revenues slowing and they have 5 times debt to market cap, margins are terrible.
When I look at their plans I dont see much that I like, they arent competitive and are being lost in the shuffle..their marketing plan seems to be in the toilet lately.
Its a risk but you could make a good return if you are right.
They are losing market share..revenues slowing and they have 5 times debt to market cap, margins are terrible.
When I look at their plans I dont see much that I like, they arent competitive and are being lost in the shuffle..their marketing plan seems to be in the toilet lately.
Its a risk but you could make a good return if you are right.
Posted:
#138
Quote Originally Posted by sasquatches1:
Couldn't take the rest of the year off. Bought DXO at $2.02...7500 shares.
Has anyone seen a prospectus or any SEC filings on DXO or on USO? I tried to find it on Edgar but was not able to. I really like the idea of investing in oil, but I just don't totally trust these funds because I haven't been able to see what they hold. Does anyone know exactly what they are investing in? Do they actually purchase the futures that the results of the fund are supposed to be tied to? Has anyone seen any evidence that supports this?
Posted:
#139
I'm looking at DXO and USO as well . . . however, I feel what is going on right now is you have a bunch of retail investors (like me) trying to time the bottom and it keeps going down.
I bet we could see low to mid 20's for USO and low 1's for DXO soon. Maybe I am getting pretty greedy trying to time the bottom but I will take the chance.
Of course I don't completely understand how DXO works so I have been watching the trade patterns the last few weeks to track it and while I do that it keeps going lower.
I bet we could see low to mid 20's for USO and low 1's for DXO soon. Maybe I am getting pretty greedy trying to time the bottom but I will take the chance.
Of course I don't completely understand how DXO works so I have been watching the trade patterns the last few weeks to track it and while I do that it keeps going lower.
Posted:
#141
the Fed's
strategy is absurd. The best way to get prices rising again is to let
them fall. The housing market needs to find the price where buyers and
sellers meet. The more money the government throws at the market, the
longer it'll take for prices to find their true equilibrium... and the
more time we'll be stuck in a recession.
Posted:
#142
The above is a basic observation extracted from an ezine...as basic as it is, it remains one I agree with, as far as it goes...
I will be interested to see if the markets can be manipulated on the scale necessary to accomplish what we would all like to see: a recovery. But methinks all the lessons they think they learned from the Depression are going to be refuted...
I will be interested to see if the markets can be manipulated on the scale necessary to accomplish what we would all like to see: a recovery. But methinks all the lessons they think they learned from the Depression are going to be refuted...
Posted:
#143
And one more remark: what we have and what we will witness in the coming months will be one of the biggest boondoggles ever perpetrated on a people.
I look at Madoff as the exemplar of the age, and the harbinger of things to come with the greatest Ponzi scheme of all time: Social Security.
Posted:
#144
This world is so f--ed it isn't funny. Vermeer is right on the money.
There is NO future to this world as we know it. In reality, the only way out of this mess is for a worldwide population purge (say like 90% of the total right now) to take place and just start anew.
What will be funny and sad is if this year, let's say "the almighty market" actually has an up year, and at the end of 2009, every naive character around will be touting some "new bull market."
Man, please give me some of the drugs you're on.
Hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas 2008, and I wish everyone a Happy New Year for 2009. That being wished, the more long term future of this world is, well, basically caput.
Posted:
#145
And oh by the way (can't remember who asked), if you want to play the long side of oil, then just stick to the oil futures.
Please.
ETFs are the biggest sucker bets out there. Market makers are having a field day day in and day out slaughtering suckers (I mean sheep) who play with ETFs. No one knows how they're priced------the manipulators just peg 'em where they please and laugh all the way to the bank.
Sorry if I am hurting anyone's feelings here, but you need to know.
Want to play oil long? Two words.....oil futures.
Cheers
Posted:
#146
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:
This world is so f--ed it isn't funny. Vermeer is right on the money.
There is NO future to this world as we know it. In reality, the only way out of this mess is for a worldwide population purge (say like 90% of the total right now) to take place and just start anew.
What will be funny and sad is if this year, let's say "the almighty market" actually has an up year, and at the end of 2009, every naive character around will be touting some "new bull market."
Man, please give me some of the drugs you're on.
Hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas 2008, and I wish everyone a Happy New Year for 2009. That being wished, the more long term future of this world is, well, basically caput.
A true optimist.
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