Here is what I am looking for and expecting to see:
A HUGE GAP DOWN OPEN (4-500 points on DJIA) within the next 2 weeks which will send shivers up and down those with weak hands who aren't in this game for the long run. Then, the smart money bargain hunters will step up, and that GAP DOWN will get closed that same day. Some time in mid September, these summer lows will get re-tested, and if the market holds, then that will be the cue to get long and do it hard and fast.
Just have cash ready to go, and you will be very happy buying solid earnings for dirt cheap prices and just holding on well in to 2008.
Panic selling all over the board is what LT investors who have cash want.
Cheers
Vermeer-
Yeah, I think the selling continues.
Here is what I am looking for and expecting to see:
A HUGE GAP DOWN OPEN (4-500 points on DJIA) within the next 2 weeks which will send shivers up and down those with weak hands who aren't in this game for the long run. Then, the smart money bargain hunters will step up, and that GAP DOWN will get closed that same day. Some time in mid September, these summer lows will get re-tested, and if the market holds, then that will be the cue to get long and do it hard and fast.
Just have cash ready to go, and you will be very happy buying solid earnings for dirt cheap prices and just holding on well in to 2008.
Panic selling all over the board is what LT investors who have cash want.
The market will continue to struggle but i would continue to invest in oil. Oil prices are close to an all time high. Stay away from bdco right now until it drops to around 3 dollars. Im buying magellon petroleum tommorow mpet. Its funny the govt says it wants to come up with an alternative to oil, yet when you look at wind powered stocks like awea american wind energy or any of the other alternative energy stock they are trading for cents on the dollar. If the government wants to get serious about coming up with alternatives for gas and oil they will have to shell out some money. Otherwise the price of oil and the price of gas people pay for will continue to rise. The govt knows this and it is why a lot of people in the senate and people with money invest in oil. Here is a two year chart of the oil sector index fund. Stay away from the gas station types the drillers are where you want to be apa, do, mpet, bdco not the xom bp exc. https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IYE&t=2y
The market will continue to struggle but i would continue to invest in oil. Oil prices are close to an all time high. Stay away from bdco right now until it drops to around 3 dollars. Im buying magellon petroleum tommorow mpet. Its funny the govt says it wants to come up with an alternative to oil, yet when you look at wind powered stocks like awea american wind energy or any of the other alternative energy stock they are trading for cents on the dollar. If the government wants to get serious about coming up with alternatives for gas and oil they will have to shell out some money. Otherwise the price of oil and the price of gas people pay for will continue to rise. The govt knows this and it is why a lot of people in the senate and people with money invest in oil. Here is a two year chart of the oil sector index fund. Stay away from the gas station types the drillers are where you want to be apa, do, mpet, bdco not the xom bp exc. https://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IYE&t=2y
Here is what I am looking for and expecting to see:
A HUGE GAP DOWN OPEN (4-500 points on DJIA) within the next 2 weeks which will send shivers up and down those with weak hands who aren't in this game for the long run. Then, the smart money bargain hunters will step up, and that GAP DOWN will get closed that same day. Some time in mid September, these summer lows will get re-tested, and if the market holds, then that will be the cue to get long and do it hard and fast.
Just have cash ready to go, and you will be very happy buying solid earnings for dirt cheap prices and just holding on well in to 2008.
Panic selling all over the board is what LT investors who have cash want.
Cheers
I agree, although perhaps not to the extent of damage on the gap (but certainly recognizing the possibility.And I always think of a couple of people in such times:Buffett and Templeton. I heed Buffett's advice to buy stocks you are comfortable with owning "forever" if need be, and then Templeton, who in direr times than these did the following:
"Standard stock-buying advice is "buy low, sell high." But Templeton
took the strategy to an extreme — picking nations, industries and
companies hitting rock-bottom "points of maximum pessimism," as he put
it. When war began in Europe in 1939, he borrowed money to buy 100
shares in each of 104 companies selling at $1 a share or less,
including 34 companies that were in bankruptcy. Only four turned out to
be worthless, and he turned large profits on the others after holding
each for an average of four years."
Fire sales are wonderful opportunities. I will see how this plays out, go over the stocks I liked at (relatively high valuations) and see if I can add to them should they be caught up in the panic.
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:
Vermeer-
Yeah, I think the selling continues.
Here is what I am looking for and expecting to see:
A HUGE GAP DOWN OPEN (4-500 points on DJIA) within the next 2 weeks which will send shivers up and down those with weak hands who aren't in this game for the long run. Then, the smart money bargain hunters will step up, and that GAP DOWN will get closed that same day. Some time in mid September, these summer lows will get re-tested, and if the market holds, then that will be the cue to get long and do it hard and fast.
Just have cash ready to go, and you will be very happy buying solid earnings for dirt cheap prices and just holding on well in to 2008.
Panic selling all over the board is what LT investors who have cash want.
Cheers
I agree, although perhaps not to the extent of damage on the gap (but certainly recognizing the possibility.And I always think of a couple of people in such times:Buffett and Templeton. I heed Buffett's advice to buy stocks you are comfortable with owning "forever" if need be, and then Templeton, who in direr times than these did the following:
"Standard stock-buying advice is "buy low, sell high." But Templeton
took the strategy to an extreme — picking nations, industries and
companies hitting rock-bottom "points of maximum pessimism," as he put
it. When war began in Europe in 1939, he borrowed money to buy 100
shares in each of 104 companies selling at $1 a share or less,
including 34 companies that were in bankruptcy. Only four turned out to
be worthless, and he turned large profits on the others after holding
each for an average of four years."
Fire sales are wonderful opportunities. I will see how this plays out, go over the stocks I liked at (relatively high valuations) and see if I can add to them should they be caught up in the panic.
Here is what I am looking for and expecting to see:
A HUGE GAP DOWN OPEN (4-500 points on DJIA) within the next 2 weeks which will send shivers up and down those with weak hands who aren't in this game for the long run. Then, the smart money bargain hunters will step up, and that GAP DOWN will get closed that same day. Some time in mid September, these summer lows will get re-tested, and if the market holds, then that will be the cue to get long and do it hard and fast.
Just have cash ready to go, and you will be very happy buying solid earnings for dirt cheap prices and just holding on well in to 2008.
Panic selling all over the board is what LT investors who have cash want.
Cheers
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:
Vermeer-
Yeah, I think the selling continues.
Here is what I am looking for and expecting to see:
A HUGE GAP DOWN OPEN (4-500 points on DJIA) within the next 2 weeks which will send shivers up and down those with weak hands who aren't in this game for the long run. Then, the smart money bargain hunters will step up, and that GAP DOWN will get closed that same day. Some time in mid September, these summer lows will get re-tested, and if the market holds, then that will be the cue to get long and do it hard and fast.
Just have cash ready to go, and you will be very happy buying solid earnings for dirt cheap prices and just holding on well in to 2008.
Panic selling all over the board is what LT investors who have cash want.
I agree, although perhaps not to the extent of damage on the gap (but certainly recognizing the possibility.And I always think of a couple of people in such times:Buffett and Templeton. I heed Buffett's advice to buy stocks you are comfortable with owning "forever" if need be, and then Templeton, who in direr times than these did the following:
"Standard stock-buying advice is "buy low, sell high." But Templeton
took the strategy to an extreme — picking nations, industries and
companies hitting rock-bottom "points of maximum pessimism," as he put
it. When war began in Europe in 1939, he borrowed money to buy 100
shares in each of 104 companies selling at $1 a share or less,
including 34 companies that were in bankruptcy. Only four turned out to
be worthless, and he turned large profits on the others after holding
each for an average of four years."
Fire sales are wonderful opportunities. I will see how this plays out, go over the stocks I liked at (relatively high valuations) and see if I can add to them should they be caught up in the panic.
if you're looking good value investors to follow...try Dreman, Third Avenue, Dodge & Cox, Value Act
these 4 runs close to 100b and they are very smart value guys
Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:
I agree, although perhaps not to the extent of damage on the gap (but certainly recognizing the possibility.And I always think of a couple of people in such times:Buffett and Templeton. I heed Buffett's advice to buy stocks you are comfortable with owning "forever" if need be, and then Templeton, who in direr times than these did the following:
"Standard stock-buying advice is "buy low, sell high." But Templeton
took the strategy to an extreme — picking nations, industries and
companies hitting rock-bottom "points of maximum pessimism," as he put
it. When war began in Europe in 1939, he borrowed money to buy 100
shares in each of 104 companies selling at $1 a share or less,
including 34 companies that were in bankruptcy. Only four turned out to
be worthless, and he turned large profits on the others after holding
each for an average of four years."
Fire sales are wonderful opportunities. I will see how this plays out, go over the stocks I liked at (relatively high valuations) and see if I can add to them should they be caught up in the panic.
if you're looking good value investors to follow...try Dreman, Third Avenue, Dodge & Cox, Value Act
these 4 runs close to 100b and they are very smart value guys
KOAJ, we think alike, already in 3rd Ave and Dodge and Cox. Love the value guys. I really like reading the 3rd avenue analysis, and always get a kick out how cheaply printed their stuff is....guys after my own heart!!!
KOAJ, we think alike, already in 3rd Ave and Dodge and Cox. Love the value guys. I really like reading the 3rd avenue analysis, and always get a kick out how cheaply printed their stuff is....guys after my own heart!!!
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bond market turmoil sending investors
fleeing from risk may be a worse predicament than the 1980s
stock market fall and Internet bubble burst, Bear Stearns Chief
Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said on Friday.
"These times are pretty significant in the fixed income
market," Molinaro said on a conference call with analysts.
"It's as been as bad as I've seen it in 22 years. The fixed
income market environment we've seen in the last eight weeks
has been pretty extreme."
"So, yes, we would make that comparison" to market events
that also include the debt crisis of the late 1990s, he said.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bond market turmoil sending investors
fleeing from risk may be a worse predicament than the 1980s
stock market fall and Internet bubble burst, Bear Stearns Chief
Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said on Friday.
"These times are pretty significant in the fixed income
market," Molinaro said on a conference call with analysts.
"It's as been as bad as I've seen it in 22 years. The fixed
income market environment we've seen in the last eight weeks
has been pretty extreme."
"So, yes, we would make that comparison" to market events
that also include the debt crisis of the late 1990s, he said.
I am very pleased I took out insurance by getting a slug of SKF given the credit fiasco the private equity boys have brewed up for us all. I also do not see how the Fed can rescue anyone because if they lower rates, the dollar truly will be worthless.
I am very pleased I took out insurance by getting a slug of SKF given the credit fiasco the private equity boys have brewed up for us all. I also do not see how the Fed can rescue anyone because if they lower rates, the dollar truly will be worthless.
20 % would be 11,200...so not that far fetched, but I tend to think that it will be around 11,000 or so worst case, but who knows. Keep your powder dry and remember, it does not matter whether it goes up or down as long as you are on the right side of the movement!!!
20 % would be 11,200...so not that far fetched, but I tend to think that it will be around 11,000 or so worst case, but who knows. Keep your powder dry and remember, it does not matter whether it goes up or down as long as you are on the right side of the movement!!!
If we get a severe credit crunch what does that do to earnings and the economy? I am being conservative with 10k to be honest.
Also consider what ammo does the Fed have to combat these fears, lower rates MORE? How does that help? They havent raised rates at all yet prime is at almost 9 percent and the more challanging the credit situation the wider the spread for the average in debt low credit quality consumer.
The Fed has plugged the hole in the economy for quite a few yrs by flooding the market with greenbacks and stimulating foreign investment and consumption by making our dollar worth multi decade lows. Do we need to devalue the dollar so they can keep flooding?
My 10k number isnt at all wild, consider if companies cannot borrow at reasonable rates, they dont hire or even lay off employees. Look at that stock AHM today, laid off 7k employees because of a lack of funding.
If what they say is true and it is more than a small isolated situation I do not see exactly what can be done to keep the economy and market from getting hit HARD.
Also consider that historically the lame duck year of an outgoing president is usually horrible economically speaking and for the market.
D2,
Think about the possibilities here..
If we get a severe credit crunch what does that do to earnings and the economy? I am being conservative with 10k to be honest.
Also consider what ammo does the Fed have to combat these fears, lower rates MORE? How does that help? They havent raised rates at all yet prime is at almost 9 percent and the more challanging the credit situation the wider the spread for the average in debt low credit quality consumer.
The Fed has plugged the hole in the economy for quite a few yrs by flooding the market with greenbacks and stimulating foreign investment and consumption by making our dollar worth multi decade lows. Do we need to devalue the dollar so they can keep flooding?
My 10k number isnt at all wild, consider if companies cannot borrow at reasonable rates, they dont hire or even lay off employees. Look at that stock AHM today, laid off 7k employees because of a lack of funding.
If what they say is true and it is more than a small isolated situation I do not see exactly what can be done to keep the economy and market from getting hit HARD.
Also consider that historically the lame duck year of an outgoing president is usually horrible economically speaking and for the market.
Problem is MANY stocks still within 5-10% of multi year highs.
You could be right about rallying but IF this situation goes deeper than just a few creative mortage companies then we have put the highs in for the year.
Very bearish close, right on the lows of the day.
Problem is MANY stocks still within 5-10% of multi year highs.
You could be right about rallying but IF this situation goes deeper than just a few creative mortage companies then we have put the highs in for the year.
my brother is a sell side analyst, covers bond guarantors, reinsurance companies...ALL, SCA, ABK, MBI
these companies are trading like dotcoms right now and its real scary
from his analysis, no one really knows how deep this subprime/alt-a shit runs and thats the real frightening part of this whole thing and no one wants to be the one holding the bag...hence the freefall. the mkt is very afraid of this
basically lenders about a week or two ago told lendees "I'm not getting paid enough for the risk i'm taking" and thats that...its been a slow process but came to a head in the last 10 days.
also...this is a CONSUMER credit crunch, not a business credit crunch that we saw with WCOM and ENE collapses a few years ago. a consumer credit crunch has never happened before, and if it has, never to this magnitude and never with housing
so...be afraid, pick your longs very carefully and move your way into defensive names...cons durables, healthcare...better off in a 4.5% money market then worrying about any of this stuff
wall/depeche
my brother is a sell side analyst, covers bond guarantors, reinsurance companies...ALL, SCA, ABK, MBI
these companies are trading like dotcoms right now and its real scary
from his analysis, no one really knows how deep this subprime/alt-a shit runs and thats the real frightening part of this whole thing and no one wants to be the one holding the bag...hence the freefall. the mkt is very afraid of this
basically lenders about a week or two ago told lendees "I'm not getting paid enough for the risk i'm taking" and thats that...its been a slow process but came to a head in the last 10 days.
also...this is a CONSUMER credit crunch, not a business credit crunch that we saw with WCOM and ENE collapses a few years ago. a consumer credit crunch has never happened before, and if it has, never to this magnitude and never with housing
so...be afraid, pick your longs very carefully and move your way into defensive names...cons durables, healthcare...better off in a 4.5% money market then worrying about any of this stuff
I think there is a psychology of fear at work.However, here is the question, is it a case described by Lucan:
"Idle rumors were also added to well-founded apprehensions." or is it simple fear mongering. There are serious systemic problems that are, and have been recognized for months regarding sub prime loans, derivatives, and a bloated housing market. The question that no one seems to be able to answer, given the complexity of derivatives, is the true amount of bad debt, and who is left holding it. Throw in the fact that the dollar (and all fiat currency) is being printed beyond all reason, and the greatest fears have at least an element of plausibility to them. The amount of assets that are falsely accounted for, or not yet "marked to market" could be truly staggering. Most of the people who have created this situation can't recall a real recession. They may just may get a fresh look at one.
I think there is a psychology of fear at work.However, here is the question, is it a case described by Lucan:
"Idle rumors were also added to well-founded apprehensions." or is it simple fear mongering. There are serious systemic problems that are, and have been recognized for months regarding sub prime loans, derivatives, and a bloated housing market. The question that no one seems to be able to answer, given the complexity of derivatives, is the true amount of bad debt, and who is left holding it. Throw in the fact that the dollar (and all fiat currency) is being printed beyond all reason, and the greatest fears have at least an element of plausibility to them. The amount of assets that are falsely accounted for, or not yet "marked to market" could be truly staggering. Most of the people who have created this situation can't recall a real recession. They may just may get a fresh look at one.
Guys, those who lived through the .com implosion and WCOM/ Enron debacle look at things differently than those who didnt. And the late 80s S&L debacle (which I remember just a little)
I dont think "There is NO way that XYZ would go under" or "this is just a dip in the markets". I dont rule out nearly ANY company which isnt a mamouth name like GE or MSFT or CSCO etc from going under.
That includes both IMB and CFC as large lenders..it wouldnt be the most shocking story and I also dont hesitate to think this lending issue could spill into larger financial institutions and have a LARGE effect..hell even Freddie Mac could get killed.
I know this seems bearish but I think we could be on the tip of a very very large drop over the next year...10k or lower could be very possible.
I only wish these options MMs would make contracts going out till 2009 on some alt energy stocks or tech stocks..if my thoughts end up being reality there will be some serious carnage..
RIMM at 200 BIDU at 200 FSLR at 100 AAPL at 140
That is just three names which could be cut in 1/2 or worse..
I bet another large lender goes under, or one drops completely out and it kills the stock (not a lender but a financial who has large risk)
Interesting discussion..and I havent even tapped into the global meltdown that would happen if the FED stopped pumping liquidity and short term rates went up as they should...
Guys, those who lived through the .com implosion and WCOM/ Enron debacle look at things differently than those who didnt. And the late 80s S&L debacle (which I remember just a little)
I dont think "There is NO way that XYZ would go under" or "this is just a dip in the markets". I dont rule out nearly ANY company which isnt a mamouth name like GE or MSFT or CSCO etc from going under.
That includes both IMB and CFC as large lenders..it wouldnt be the most shocking story and I also dont hesitate to think this lending issue could spill into larger financial institutions and have a LARGE effect..hell even Freddie Mac could get killed.
I know this seems bearish but I think we could be on the tip of a very very large drop over the next year...10k or lower could be very possible.
I only wish these options MMs would make contracts going out till 2009 on some alt energy stocks or tech stocks..if my thoughts end up being reality there will be some serious carnage..
RIMM at 200 BIDU at 200 FSLR at 100 AAPL at 140
That is just three names which could be cut in 1/2 or worse..
I bet another large lender goes under, or one drops completely out and it kills the stock (not a lender but a financial who has large risk)
Interesting discussion..and I havent even tapped into the global meltdown that would happen if the FED stopped pumping liquidity and short term rates went up as they should...
my brother is a sell side analyst, covers bond guarantors, reinsurance companies...ALL, SCA, ABK, MBI
these companies are trading like dotcoms right now and its real scary
from his analysis, no one really knows how deep this subprime/alt-a shit runs and thats the real frightening part of this whole thing and no one wants to be the one holding the bag...hence the freefall. the mkt is very afraid of this
basically lenders about a week or two ago told lendees "I'm not getting paid enough for the risk i'm taking" and thats that...its been a slow process but came to a head in the last 10 days.
also...this is a CONSUMER credit crunch, not a business credit crunch that we saw with WCOM and ENE collapses a few years ago. a consumer credit crunch has never happened before, and if it has, never to this magnitude and never with housing
so...be afraid, pick your longs very carefully and move your way into defensive names...cons durables, healthcare...better off in a 4.5% money market then worrying about any of this stuff
I think there are more "defensive" sectors than that though. I wouldn't touch financials, still. But I think tech is fine too. And I also do like healthcare.
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
wall/depeche
my brother is a sell side analyst, covers bond guarantors, reinsurance companies...ALL, SCA, ABK, MBI
these companies are trading like dotcoms right now and its real scary
from his analysis, no one really knows how deep this subprime/alt-a shit runs and thats the real frightening part of this whole thing and no one wants to be the one holding the bag...hence the freefall. the mkt is very afraid of this
basically lenders about a week or two ago told lendees "I'm not getting paid enough for the risk i'm taking" and thats that...its been a slow process but came to a head in the last 10 days.
also...this is a CONSUMER credit crunch, not a business credit crunch that we saw with WCOM and ENE collapses a few years ago. a consumer credit crunch has never happened before, and if it has, never to this magnitude and never with housing
so...be afraid, pick your longs very carefully and move your way into defensive names...cons durables, healthcare...better off in a 4.5% money market then worrying about any of this stuff
I think there are more "defensive" sectors than that though. I wouldn't touch financials, still. But I think tech is fine too. And I also do like healthcare.
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