Posted:
#26
My somewhat of a concern with Meantime is the distance, he being out of Shackelford.
TRIPLE CROWN-Where we at now & The Belmont
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by mikeyp1:
I think I have this stat correct.....Lee is 11/2-3-2 with $943,000 in purse money....not exactly "minor award" status. His CD is .3.40 and DI is .77....not "plodder" numbers.
He has a great shot to win the Belmont. As much as like Lanerie, after thinking about it, the switch to Irad at Elmont makes big sense.
OK Mikey, maybe plodder was not the right term? But only 2 wins in 11 races with 5 "minor awards" is not a win machine! Zero wins in 2017? Not sure on that. I'll be tossing Meantime and Patch on the win end too, settling for 2nd-3rd is not my cup of tea.
But WTH does a newcomer know? I digress to the experts.
Thanks Jr
Posted:
#31
still ten or 11 days to go for the 1/1/2 belmont stakes... think i saw irap said no, but list is still 14 or so... irish war cry a definite ? mike i thought lanerie rode lookin at lee great 2x, but then the light bulb came on... creator won the the belmont with irad ortiz last year..not taking sides but lookin at lee got more grade 1s on his chart and,although he hasnt fared well against classic empire, i would certainly trust him off this 3 week freshening before alot of these 3yr olds.. he was again running late in the preakness. was glad to see true timber entered off his front running 3rd in sir barton, we need some pace.....
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Posted:
#36
With the defection of Conquest Mo Money and the scratch of True Timber(fever) Meantime is now the controlling speed of this race. We know CE can't really press him and keep him honest because he won't last, to that point neither can Irish War Cry if they decide he runs. Mike Smith maybe able to walk thru opening fractions, this race produces strange results and i think Meantime is sitting on a monster race here especially with how the pace projects at this point.
Posted:
#38
I feel a little "nuts" for going here....but....how's this logic? The Japanese ship and run well all over the world.......except the US thus far. At some point in time, they will win one of these races. This is a better horse than Lani.......has probably more tactical speed than any foreign horse that's tried this. Mile and a half races are the goal in Japan, so this colt appears to have been pointed to this race for some time. I can see this one laying close......really close to the lead and the breeding will take over at the eighth pole. This is the time to try it, cause I see this crop of 3 yo's as ordinary. I'll be using him with Tapwrit and Irish War Cry. Thoughts?
Posted:
#39
Epicharis has only run in Japan and Dubai, the horse that beat him in the UAE Derby went to Louisville and danced out of the gate, went back to Europe and didn't win his next race either. 3rd place finisher in the UAE was Master Plan, his next NA start was the Peter Pan and he got trounced. So IMO to think Epicharis can get to Belmont a week out and be ready to fire big enough to win under a jockey who knows nothing of the track and will likely only have 1 mount that day is an awful big ask. But you're not the only person I've seen with this opinion so GL to you on you're wagers.
I personally like Meantime and Tapwrit, will likely also use Gormley and IWC in my P4s. IWC is a total puzzle instead of trying to figure I'll likely just use him
I personally like Meantime and Tapwrit, will likely also use Gormley and IWC in my P4s. IWC is a total puzzle instead of trying to figure I'll likely just use him
Posted:
#40
Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:
Epicharis has only run in Japan and Dubai, the horse that beat him in the UAE Derby went to Louisville and danced out of the gate, went back to Europe and didn't win his next race either. 3rd place finisher in the UAE was Master Plan, his next NA start was the Peter Pan and he got trounced. So IMO to think Epicharis can get to Belmont a week out and be ready to fire big enough to win under a jockey who knows nothing of the track and will likely only have 1 mount that day is an awful big ask. But you're not the only person I've seen with this opinion so GL to you on you're wagers.
I personally like Meantime and Tapwrit, will likely also use Gormley and IWC in my P4s. IWC is a total puzzle instead of trying to figure I'll likely just use him
Epicharis has only run in Japan and Dubai, the horse that beat him in the UAE Derby went to Louisville and danced out of the gate, went back to Europe and didn't win his next race either. 3rd place finisher in the UAE was Master Plan, his next NA start was the Peter Pan and he got trounced. So IMO to think Epicharis can get to Belmont a week out and be ready to fire big enough to win under a jockey who knows nothing of the track and will likely only have 1 mount that day is an awful big ask. But you're not the only person I've seen with this opinion so GL to you on you're wagers.
I personally like Meantime and Tapwrit, will likely also use Gormley and IWC in my P4s. IWC is a total puzzle instead of trying to figure I'll likely just use him
I know that these horses are historically bad wagers......I wish they had gotten a Belmont jock to ride him for certain. I've got friends in London who said Thunder Snow was bet by several quality punters before his Derby debacle......their reasoning that this was a subpar crop of American 3 y.o.'s......you mentioned that he came back to lose his next race.....it was a good 2nd behind Churchill (one of the best 3 yo's in Europe) in the Guineas......and it was at least 5 lengths back to the 3rd horse. That all being said, the price has got to be right. Will wait to see how he takes to the surface. Great card at Belmont on Saturday. Best of luck.
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:
Everyone is aware that Lookin at Lee has ZERO wins at 2 turns and is 0 for his last 9.
Playing him in the Derby is one thing at 33-1 but playing him in the Belmont at odds that are likely to be 6-1 or under is really a bad wager, whether he wins or not.
Everyone is aware that Lookin at Lee has ZERO wins at 2 turns and is 0 for his last 9.
Playing him in the Derby is one thing at 33-1 but playing him in the Belmont at odds that are likely to be 6-1 or under is really a bad wager, whether he wins or not.
Been thinking about the 0 for 9 stat you sited. However, the guy is improving and might not have yet run his race. With IOrtiz on him, I like the angle in my capping. I think these are points to consider.
While I haven't come close to capping this race...today, Monday, way too early, I gotta think.....
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by soonboomer:
I feel a little "nuts" for going here....but....how's this logic? The Japanese ship and run well all over the world.......except the US thus far. At some point in time, they will win one of these races. This is a better horse than Lani.......has probably more tactical speed than any foreign horse that's tried this. Mile and a half races are the goal in Japan, so this colt appears to have been pointed to this race for some time. I can see this one laying close......really close to the lead and the breeding will take over at the eighth pole. This is the time to try it, cause I see this crop of 3 yo's as ordinary. I'll be using him with Tapwrit and Irish War Cry. Thoughts?
I feel a little "nuts" for going here....but....how's this logic? The Japanese ship and run well all over the world.......except the US thus far. At some point in time, they will win one of these races. This is a better horse than Lani.......has probably more tactical speed than any foreign horse that's tried this. Mile and a half races are the goal in Japan, so this colt appears to have been pointed to this race for some time. I can see this one laying close......really close to the lead and the breeding will take over at the eighth pole. This is the time to try it, cause I see this crop of 3 yo's as ordinary. I'll be using him with Tapwrit and Irish War Cry. Thoughts?
FOLLOW THIS HALF-A$$ logic....the case for Epicharis.....
- He's won four of five races lifetime against top Global competitors
- His only loss was to THUNDER SNOW, he of KY Derby freak out, who, I still believe, if TS had his head right that day, would have competed.
- Thunder Snow ran last weekend in the 2000 Guineas...one of the top 3-year old races in Europe. He had the lead heading for home until CHURCHILL passed Thunder Snow to win by 2L.
- CHURCHILL is the Number One ranked European and Japanese 3-year old. You will see him in the BC in 2017.
- Partly because he will be racing in long distance European affairs for the rest of his career, in all likelihood, Epicharis is the only one of all the entrants that has trained for the Belmont distance.
- This from Brian Zipse, Editor of horseracingnation.com; "Zipse at the Track." "The Belmont was always the Goal - While Epicharis is clearly the best three-year-old dirt horse in Japan, and was his nation's automatic qualifier for the Kentucky Derby, it was not the Run for the Roses that his connections had their collective eyes on. Rather the Belmont was always the goal. Even when they went to Dubai to run in the $2 million UAE Derby, they let it be known that it was the final leg of our Triple Crown that would be next for him. Let me ask you this -- How many American horses are pointed for the Belmont? No, for U.S. horses it is all about the Derby, with the Belmont left for Triple Crown survivors and late developers. The fact that the Belmont was always targeted for by Epicharis is an advantage that should not be overlooked."
Posted:
#45
More Epicharis.......
- His sire is Gold Allure,son of Sunday Silence, who won the 1989 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and ran second in the Belmont Stakes to Easy Goer.
- THE KNOCK.........A 77-day break. No horse in the past over 30 years has won the Belmont off such a long break.Freak Rags to Riches’ was on a 36-day break before her Belmont win. However, consider that Cloud Computing was just the 4th horse in the past 34 Preakness races to win that race,.
Posted:
#46
AB...."So IMO to think Epicharis can get to Belmont a week out and be ready to fire big enough to win under a jockey who knows nothing of the track and will likely only have 1 mount that day is an awful big ask. "
Before you dismiss jockey Christophe Lemaiire....
- He won the BC JUVE Turf on Flotilla in 2012 at Santa Anita...a tack on which he never competed prior to the race.
- He won the Secretariat, one of the top 3-year old races, in 2012 on Bayir at Arlington Park.
- He has won major stakes races in his home country of France, in Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai, UAE, and Great Britain. I don't think Belmont will scare him.
- wins include the Melbourne Cup, Grand Prix de Paris, 2000 Guineas, Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Hong Kong Cup, Japan Cup, Japan Cup Dirt, Dubai Sheema in addition to his 2 US wins.
- Lemaire is a world class jock probably as good as anyone on in the US top 5 to 15 jocks
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