KY DERBY PREPS DISSECTED

******KY DERBY PLAYS*******

Sometimes typing these plays out can be confusing.  I hope this doesn't come off as gibberish.

My plays will look similar to this and  I will play several 50 cent trifectas and a few $1 supers.   I'll invest in the pick three, four and double all ending with the Derby.  I will plays some exactas as well.  

A sampling of what some of the Trifectas will look like:

 15/8,16,18  (I will box this key, so put the 15 1st, 2nd & 3rd)....each bet is $3 for 50 cents

15/8,16,18/3,4,6,8,10,11,14,16,18,19 (again box if you like, each will cost $13.50)

15/8/all & 15/16/all & 15/18/all & 15/11/all ($9 each)

15/all/8 & 15/all/16 & 15/all/11 & 15/all/18 ($9 each)

8,16/15/all ($18 for 50 cents)

Supers:

I'm investing minimally in supers with 15 keyed over and under for second with 8,16,11,18,4,6,10 in that order.  Only using 6 & 10 for fourth.

Daily Doubles:

Race 10 I like #10 Brilliant Speed as my "A."

I will also use 6 Doubles Partner & 7 Data Link

I will play a 10/15 double and a 10/8,11,16,18 double

Then I will play  smaller 6,7/15 & 6,7/11,16,8,18 doubles.

Pick 3 starting in Race 9.

I found the ninth very tough so I'm spreading in the 50 cent pick 3.

I will have an "A" ticket with 6,7,9 and all my picks in the doubles and then a smaller "B" TICKET with all in this race keying Gemologist as a single with the three picks in the 10th.

Pick 4 starting in race 8:

I settled on four horses.  The 3&7 were "A" horses and the 9&10 were "Bs".

So a pick four which costs 50 cents with all those selections would look like this 3,7,9,10/3,4,6-9/6,7,10/15 and cost $36 for 50 cents. 

I will spread my A & B selections on several tickets as to cover more horses in different legs.

My last Derby winner was Monarchos more than 10 yrs ago, so it's been a long dry spell.  Please tread lightly and enjoy the Super Bowl of thoroughbred racing!

HB

HolyBull,

Thanks for all your analysis and input.  I respect your thoughts but to me Gemologist is an undefeated horse who has faced subpar competition compared to UR, Hansen, numerous other horses including Optimizer.  You never know if Optimizer is game or taking the day off but he has ran alot of races against the best.He is a closer who could easily fillout exotics.  So is Dullahan, prob the best deep closer in the field, throwin the Desormeux factor and you've gotta decent chance. 

CC on the other hand has never lost by more than a length and he is def my top 2. Would be shocked if he doesnt at least complete the fecta, with a damn good shot to win. I still believe Rags is the best horse.  He is the real deal.   Everyone not as crazy about him since he lost the Fla Derby, but I live 10 min from GulfStream and was at the Fla Derby...UR gotta bad trip and Padrino blocked him on the rail..not to mention Rags was already in the Derby so ya never know if he took the day off.

I do like Gemoligist post, but he hasnt ran with the best of the class like others have.  He doesnt even fill out my sf boxes, but that is just my opinion.  Up late still trying to figure a few things out. 

 One thing I do know for sure....Trinniberg is the biggest sucker play of the field, doubt hes in the top 10. Watch him lead the 1st half mile, then he will sellout and possible finish last. How can anyone expect a sprinter who never raced passed 7F to be a factor??? Ya Can't!!  He is the only horse I know for sure will not fillout exotics!  Best of luck to you today

Loose,

It's hard to argue against your points, because I think each is possibly spot on.  Like I've said numerous times, have three handicappers watch the same prep and you'll get three different views.  The absolute beautiful thing about paramutuel wagering!

One point I will make.  Trakus had EP running 28 more feet than UR in the Florida Derby, which would have been approx a couple lengths on the wire.  Now if what you said is true and they didn't have him wound up, then maybe he was best.  However, for my money EP will be ahead of him and get the jump at a much bigger price.

Stick with your picks, their very good ones, and best of luck today!

HB

Nice write ups. thx for the hard work. So the best possible result for you is 15,16,8,............10?

I would say 18 & 15 in the tri would be the most profitable result.

If Gemologist (15)doesn't show up today I will most likely be ripping most tickets.

HB

From the rail out:

Union Rags (4)

Bodemeister (6)

Creative Cause (8)

Daddy Nose Best (9)

Alpha (11)

Hansen (14)

Gemologist (15)

El Padrino (15)

Sabercat (18)

I'll Have Another (19)

For what it's worth, if it were me making this bet I would spend the extra money and use Take Charge Indy (3) as well.  I had to cut somewhere though.  Actually I would probably consider tossing Bode and using TCI instead.

Best of Luck!

HB

HolyBull, thanks for the awesome pony thread. 

My picks:  $10 WPS on 8.  $2 Tri-Box 4, 10, 11, 15, 16.

Good luck man. 

Joseph O stayed quite busy on him down the lane, but impressive nonetheless.  It's unique watching these distance races run on straight aways.  The best horse must win a large perentage of the time, which is not always the case in the U.S. because of the tight turns and trips.

HB

Great performance by I'll Have Another and all the connections.  That's one hell of a 3yo!  All the emotion was fun to watch.  It's such a great day!

SUPERB performance by Bodemeister.  Man o' man did he show up yesterday.  All week I was vocal about him not being able to rate, and I was 100% right.  What I didn't realize is how truly talented this guy is.   What a performance!  It's all conjecture now, but if Trinninberg were not in the Derby, Bode would have had a huge shot at the Triple Crown. 

As far as Gemologist goes.  Appeared rank at the start and just didn't want to relax for Javier. 

Thanks to everyone for making this a fun Derby season, I hope this thread helped to make someone a little profit.

Talk to you all in a week or so.

HB

Looking forward to it.  Any idea when DRF will release the preliminary PPs for the projected field?  I know it won't have recent works but essentially all the prior races are in the books at this point.

Here is where I will start:

1.  Who is very clearly running better as a 3YO than they did as a 2YO and by better I mean FASTER and with more power and energy?

2.  Who is running better as the distance gets longer?

3.  Who looks fresh, physically fit, and projecting forward to their best effort yet?

4.  Who looks like they can sit comfortably and without expending a lot of energy within a reasonable range of the projected pace AND get the distance?  Who will rely on a hail mary move from the clouds to pass 10-15 horses or so to hit the board if they can hit the board?