KY DERBY PREPS DISSECTED

PTB I said nothing about final time.

Fat,

I agree that every split after the first really was slower than what you'd like.  My "excuse" is that he, and Alpha for that matter, did it into a head wind.  A head wind significant enough for Durkin to mention it in his call of the Bay Shore.

I was coming up with Gemologist either way based on what I've seen from these horses, but I like him much better at 6/7-1 and I wasn't getting that if he came home in a :12 final furlong.  Which for what it's worth the final furlong was probably with the wind.

I'm not judging wind by any means, just using it as an excuse to justify the horses slow splits.

HB

Great job on this HB, was very insightful 

Here is an impressive time & something that solidified me to play him.

PTB you are comparing apples to oranges. First off Big Brown finished in 13 after going 45.4 and 1:10.
Secondly Animal Kingdom was closing into those times so he was actually going faster then the splits read. Gemologist was on the lead during most of the splits so they are closer to his actual closing splits.
Thirdly I don't compare synthetic times to dirt times. If you want to compare times you can compare times on that same day...
Aqueduct April 7th
Carter H. 7 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds And Up | STAKES | Open
Times in 100ths: :23.67  :46.98  1:10.15      1:22.32

Comely S. 1 Mile | 3 Year Olds | STAKES | Open Fillies
Times in 100ths: :23.73  :47.25  1:11.74      1:36.53

1 Mile | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Open
Times in 100ths: :23.49  :46.89  1:11.41      1:36.91

Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial S. 1 1/8 Miles | 3 Year Olds | STAKES | Open
Times in 100ths: :23.04  :47.57  1:12.54  1:37.74    1:50.96

Now there are no races that a mile and 1/8 so I cant get a direct comparison and a track can change throughout the day. Horses in the big races were able to close pretty strong.
The 1 mile allowance race was ran faster through 1/2 mile, and mile and had very similiar closing splits.
The comely with Alibi(who is one of the favorites for the oaks) finished better then Gemologist. I'd prefer to see my derby horse finish up better then a filly.

I see where you're going Fat, but I could argue we are comparing one turn and two turn races as well.

Also, I hear you about finishing, but Gemologist was rating pretty comfortably on a hot pace and finished up with just enough.

It's a tough call and I could give 10 reasons why everyone of the top choices isn't winning tomorrow.   I think there's plenty more in the tank for Gem, and that's just a guess based on what my eyes saw.

HB

 

Fat,

Hit me with that email when you get the chance please.

HB

Yeah I agree the pace was fast that day. Especially if it was into the wind. I think the 1 mile races are two turns at Aqu?? anyways I sent you email. Are you still looking at Alpha? I think I'm using him in exotics

Got your email thanks!  Shot you one back, did you get it?

AQU 1 mile is one turn.  Watch replay of Lumber Guy's Jerome.  Race 9 4/21.

Certainly using Alpha, but underneath only. 

HB

What do the sheets have winning the derby guys, do you mind sharing?

I guess those one turn miles are kind of useless then. Shocked Believe you can won the oaks. I did not have her on my tickets unfortunately. Big day tomorrow

PTB- Thoro likes indy, pad, gem, rags plus dully

Early Derby odds and double prices.  Pay more attention to how horses are bet in the double as it is a much better reflection of how the horses will be bet.  For the most part these early win pool odds are bogus.

1. Daddy Long Legs: (26-1); $1,788.60

2.Optimizer: (31-1); $2,415

3. Take Charge Indy: (7-1); $617.20

4. Union Rags: (6-1); $208.60

5. Dullahan: (10-1); $370.60

6. Bodemeister: (8-1); $276.20

7. Rousing Sermon: (18-1); $2,436.60

8. Creative Cause: (12-1); $389.60

9. Trinniberg: (40-1); $2,239.80

10. Daddy Nose Best: (14-1); $483.20

11. Alpha: (22-1); $537.80

12. Prospective: (69-1); $2,588.60

13. Went the Day Well: (20-1); $867.30

14. Hansen: (7-1); $662

15. Gemologist: (8-1); $338

16. El Padrino: (34-1); $937.20

17. Done Talking: (34-1); $2,735.80

18. Sabercat: (39-1); $1,676.20

19. I’ll Have Another: (17-1); $731.20

20. Liaison: (60-1); $3,224.60

HB 

Padrino was bet hard in the double.............

PTB,

 

Sent you a friend request.  PM your email to me.

HB

Any official plays HB?

I will post later tonight or early a.m.  Putting it all together now.

Long story short, I will be using Gemologist, Creative Cause and El Padrino as my three key horses on top of several others.  I will also use Sabercat (mostly underneath) more than any other price horse.

More to come later.

HB

Nice write up fellas...looking forward to seeing the final plays....GL

Awesome! Dont get to the pony forum much, but really like your threads and insight. Solid stuff man.

Sounds like a decent tri and superfecta with the horses you listed.

Let me know if you got that.

HB

A little discussion before I submit my plays.

 These threads have all been fun and informative with a lot of healthy discussion.  It's an improbably difficult race, but at some point you have to draw a line with (or through for that matter) certain horses.

I ended up really focusing most of my plays through Gemologist.  As I said in earlier posts I think there's a lot more to him than what we've seen thus far. I hate to get ahead of myself, but if he wins tomorrow, let's just say the next five weeks will be crazy!  However, he needs to get by the RUn for the Roses first.

I used four other key horses:

El Padrino, because I think he has more tactical speed than some of the other closers and will get an earlier crack at the leaders from an excellent post position.

Creative Cause always runs his race and I think they got a tremendous prep in him last time without leaving his best race on the track.

Alpha, because frankly I'd feel real stupid if I left out the horse that took my top selection down to the wire in the Wood.

Sabercat, I like his preps, I like that Assmussen knew they were in the gate back in November.  Everything the last six months has been about tonight for this guy.  I don't think he can wear roses, but I think he can get up in the exotics to inflate our prices.

As far as those I have left off:

Along with Bodemeister, Union Rags has the best figures(all types of figures) in this field.  I woudln't talk anyone off him, but the combination of excuses and Leparoux has me soured on his prospects.  I will use him minimally.

I think Bodemeister left his best race in Arkansas and his ability to rate is an issue I could never get past.  If he repeats his last and rates he'll be ultra tough.  I think the unseasoned son of Empire Maker finishes out of the super.  Used him very sparingly.

I thought Daddy Nose Best had the perfect setup in his last and I wouldn't call what he did closing.

I'll Have Another has done everything right.  My problem is I can't see Mario Gutierrez from the 19.  The jock has not embarassed himself at all, but this is the Kentucky Derby and you're breaking from the parking lot.  Too much to ask.  Again used him very very minimally.

I completely tossed Dullahan.  Potentially a mistake, but it comes down to this.  Put all the turf breeding and the fact he never finished better than fourth on dirt issues aside.  He is going to be at the very back of the this field and this field has some of the best 3yos I think we've seen in a long time.  I just don't think he's good enough to pass an entire field of horses this caliber.  Let alone the other shortcomings I mentioned.  I won't invest one nickel on Dullahan.

I also tossed Went the Day Well, because the Spiral for my money was very week and his Gulfstream races were subpar.  I think this is a case of owners with Derby Fever,

Hansen I used more than some, because he's a warrior and Ramon rode Juanita today to a big upset over 1/2 Plum Pretty.  Juanita is a front runner that Ramon got to rate a bit, and well, that just got me to thinking.  His post really helped too.

I used Take Charge Indy on the bottom and middle of a couple tri's, but when it comes down to it I just don't see this horse making the leap necessary to make an impact and Borel is killing the price a bit.

All the others were tosses except for one or two spots where I hit the "all" button incase I'm dead nuts right about Gemologist.

My final advice is, don't be talked off your horse no matter what.  Any of 13 horses would not be a shock.  So best of luck and I look forward to reading a thread where someone crushed the 2012 KY Derby!

HB

A possible Pletcher exacta.................

If you had that we'd be looking up at PrimeTimeBoys' Hotel and Casino.