KY DERBY PREPS DISSECTED

Ok, we are deep into the final furlong!

The Grade II Jerome, Grade III Lexington & Grade III Derby Trial all produced no Derby starters, so we will pass (thankfully) on all three.

HB

The Grade I Blue Grass, 1 1/8th @ Keeneland on 4/14/12.

Three participants will step in the gate from the Blue Grass.  They are Dullahan, Hansen & Prospective.

Dullahan broke very smartly and made his way to the inside by the first turn.  Saved ground to the final turn, weaved his way up the rail on the turn and then tipped between horses as they turned for home, finally wearing down the leader from well out into the track.  Visually, this was a performance for me.  We talk about "plodders" all the time, that's what I see in this guy.  At best.  He didn't appear to be flying at the end, he just somehow gets up.  His trip was perfect, but Desormeaux was really asking him in the lane.  There were 16 total cracks of the whip from the top of the stretch as he needed many reminders to stay busy.  Kent went lefty turning for home and as Dullahan started to veer out a bit in mid stretch he went to some steady right handed cracks. This could have been a very taxing prep. I really think the surface played a huge role in the prep as well.  But I can't argue with anyone who says this effort will translate to a good performance 5/5.

Hansen too broke very smartly, easily got to the rail and cut out very fast splits for the poly without being harshly contested.  He appeared to rate (to an extent) while under a big hold by Dominguez.  Gung Ho made a move at him at the top of the stretch but he was repelled quickly as Dominguez went to the whip (I counted six times in the lane).  Hansen stayed down on the rail and had no response once Dullahan came up to him and quickly by him, albeit well out into the track.  I'm not 100% convinced Hansen saw Dullahan coming, and I couldn't say it would have mattered anyway. 

Prosepective was asked for speed leaving the gate and couldn't keep pace.  He was wrangled to mid pack where he checked sharply midway through the turn.  He made a bit of a move up the back stretch, was caught in between and behind horses turning for home.  Once he found the clear, he did little to inspire any closing ability as West Coast shipper Holy Candy walked by him for fourth and turfer Howe Great stayed on for fifth.  I've heard it said he didn't like this track.  I think the problem with this guy is running style.  He wants to stalk, not close.  Not a good running style for this Derby.

So let's dig a little deeper in this prep.  Neither Dullahan or Hansen needed to win here to move to the Derby.  Both needed to represent well, but I would say Dullahan probably needed to show a good late kick and finish well.  Hansen was going regardless.  I think this effort was taxing on Dullahan and less so on Hansen.

Everyone looks for excuses in PPs and I think Hansen has a few.  Chew on this if you will.   Hansen has yet to have a fast track in 2012.  His last fast track was his win in Juvie at Churchill.  He has matched (plus a little) his top Beyer at 2 three times.  There's is no denying he could easily be sitting on a 10pt.+ jump.  He could also get used in the pace and regress to the 80s.

Based upon what I've seen with these animals I will leave Prospective off all my tickets and maybe use Dullahan on the very bottom of exotics, but he is likely a toss for me as well.  Hansen is a must use and I wouldn't be shocked if he gives an amazing effort on Saturday.

https://www.drf.com/events/blue-grass-stakes-keeneland

HB

 

I like to use front runner in exactas but they are so hit & miss.............last one I really liked was Lion Heart, I thought that exacta was cold with SJ. I can see Hansen holding on for a piece. My cousin loves Hansen & will be betting him across the board, I can not but will put him in the exotics.

The finale, The Grade I Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8th @ Oaklawn 4/14/12.

Our final three starters are likely favorite Bodemeister, and longshots Sabercat & Optimizer.

Bodemeister broke to the outside from the far post.  Angled in and stayed in the three path around the first turn, and made the lead all on his own while cutting out quick splits of :23 flat and :46 2/5.  Mike Smith really didn't rate him much as Bode appeared to have a very high cruising speed all around the track.  They maintained a clear advantage to the top of the stretch where his stablemate made a minor run at him.  Bode got six reminders from Smitty andwas just too good today continuing to skim the rail to the wire while lengthening and being very hard ridden.  This was an awesome and very hard effort that was needed to make the Derby. 

Sabercat broke between horses and was content to sit towards the back of the pack while saving ground.  He picked up substantial ground before entering the turn for home and appeared set to make a big challenge.  After turning for home in the three path it seemed as though Nakatani was trying to veer from Secret Circle who was struggling in the lane.  Finally when he got clear in the final 100yds or so he came with somewhat of a late move to win a photo for third.  Nakatani hit him repeatedly in the lane, but the trip wasn't exactly the cleanest in the final furlong and a half. I think this one will actually relish the extra ground and be a benefactor of the pace duel.  He is possibly one to watch.

Optimizer, basically gained nothing from this performance.   John Court got him pinched back in the first 150 yards, then raced three wide while in the clear for the first six furlongs.  He was even wider in the turn for home and showed zero interest in the lane.  He is unbettable off this effort, however in his Rebel he was a very fast closing second, so I wouldn't rule out clunking up for a small piece.  However, he did skim the rail in the Rebel the whole way, and I don't see Court working out a similar trip Saturday.

Sabercat was in the Rebel as well and when I watched the head on he impressed me a bit.  He broke dead last, but had no where to go in the lane after making a very fast mid move, but looked like he really wanted to run by horses in the final furlong.  This guy is very interesting, because they knew in November of 2011 that he was in the Derby so they took a very cautious route to get here.  He wouldn't surprise me at a HUGE price.

Bode is the real deal.  No doubt about that.  If he wins and wins convincingly we could be gearing up for a Triple Crown winner.  However, he needed to win Arkansas to get there and this was not an easy effort.  It had to take something out of him and he won't get it this easy with Trinniberg and Hansen.  Post draw will be ENORMOUS for Bode.  He absolutely cannot draw inside of those two (IMO).  I like Sabercat alot and will certainly use him on many of my tickets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKLikwjF28s

HB

 

HolyBull...  Thanks for all your Hard work and Analysis.  It has been very informative.  I've been keeping up the last couple of weeks of this thread.  Very nice.  Will start to post.  Enjoy the talk from you, PTB, Johnny and the others.

After reviewing all the preps this is how I have the horses ranked before the post draw tonight.  This is all subject to change, but where my head is at right now.

I ranked them A, B, C, D & X.  Think of betting a super.

My "A" 3yos (2) are (in order of preference):

Gemologist & Creative Cause

My "B" 3yos (7)are (again in order of preference and based on price):

Hansen (more like a B+), El Padrino, Sabercat, Union Rags, I'll Have Another, Alpha, Bodemesiter (more like a B- or C +), Take Charge Indy.

My "C" 3 yos are (based on preference):

Daddy Nose Best.

My D 3yos are (in preferred order):

Went the Day Well & Liaison (not sure why, but still considering)

My "X" 3yos (7) are:

Trinniberg, Optimizer, Dullahan, Done Talking, Daddy Long Legs, Prospective, Rousing Sermon.

Some of my thoughts right now.

1) I am struggling with all three Florida Derby horses.  I have El Padrino ranked highest based on value and ground lost, but I am perplexed with both UR & TCI.

2) It's a bit nuts I'm tossing Dullahan, but I think after watching his Blue Grass I foresee a big regression.  Desormeaux went to the whip a minimum of 16 times, and I can't see him easily surpassing many of the talented colts ahead of him.

3) Creative Cause only felt the whip twice.  That SA Derby was a prep in every sense of the word.  He should fire big Saturday.

4) Gemologist (making a leap here) ran into a stiff head wind in the Wood.  I think he's got the perfect foundation to make that next leap into stardom, maybe Triple Crown stardom.

5) El Padrino and especially Sabercat will be key horses for my exotics.  Maybe even used a bit on top.

I leave you with this video and say, wouldn't it be poetic if Gemologist & Creative Cause battle a 1 1/4 down the Churchill stretch like there Sires did in the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic.  Tiznow and Giant's Causeway were two great race horses! 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2-ZyphIANI

HB

HB.. I'm on several horse racing blogs and this by far has been the one of the most enjoyable reads.

I settled on CC two weeks ago and have been trying to stay open minded.  I too like both of your A horses.  regardelss of outcome well done and thanks for sharing.  In my busy life of kids, wife work, coaching kids sports etc, nothing is more relaxiing or enjoable than to handicapp a horse race!

 

good stuff, after the read i looked back again at

I echo your sentiment and can very much relate to it.

HB

yes, so true. I was on" vacation"last week for my kids school vacation week and anyone with kids knows it is no vacation. I look forward to the races this weekend

alpha, gemoligist, unions rags are my top group then Hansen, Sabercat and Daddy nose best GL HB...this could all change after the post draw

Umm...this was great!  Thanks.  I am slightly less confused now.

Based on the post position draw and ML odds I will be upgrading El Padrino to one of my "A" horses.  The 16 post and 20-1 is just too juicy to pass up.

Hi Holybull! Just a question: in your mind given stamina doubts regarding both Trinniberg and Hansen do you think they will be ridden to "get" the trip? Surely with stamina doubts on those two they could be ridden to conserve their energy at the business end of the race rather then be ridden to contribute what is looking likely a frantic pace?

I'm not big on US racing but the way I'm reading the form, the two plus Prospective, Take Charge Indy and Bodemeister look likely amongst the leaders with Creative Cause and Gemologist likely ridden prominently with Union Rags, Dullahan and Alpha held up in rear.

Thus I'm seeing Bodemeister sustaining a fast gallop and burning them all off with Creative Cause not far behind running on past beaten horse and Alpha or Union Rags flying up the home straight to finish strongly. Cracking thread btw and thoroughly enjoyed it!

Keep it up and good luck!

GC

Giant,

It's a fine analysis and scenarios that are very likely to materialize on Saturday.

One point:

1) I wouldn't be so quick to put Trinniberg and Hansen in the same class.  I think Hansen has a much better chance to be rated and he got a post outside all of the speed so it may be easier for him to settle just enough to go longer. How much longer is the question. Trinniberg as you mention is a hopeless cause and has never been two turns, therefore stamina will indeed be his undoing.

2) You are correct on your analysis of the second and third tier of horses, as those should be their positions in the race.  If Bodemeister can maintain that high cruising speed from behind horses he is certainly the one to beat. I however am going to try and beat the favorite, so I see several flaws to make my very "biased" opinion.  I see a 3yo with a shaky foundation for a race of this caliber (no races at 2yo, no real battles down the stretch). I also see a horse that has never successfully rated and come from behind. He drew inside all the other speed so that task just becomes twice as difficult.

Best of luck on Saturday!

HB

HB- Spot on analysis. I think El Padrino can hit the exotics at a big price as his numbers are as good as gemologist and his price will be double. You know I love Bode but your assessment is 100%. The post is fine if he can rate but that is a big question mark because if he can not then he will be forced to go with the speed outside. I still think he is top 4 but he will have to be very special to win. The key is finding which horse will hit his peak and stay out of trouble. I think Union will peak but whether he gets the trip is ???? I think Gemologist will have an ideal trip but is he fast enough?? I don't think so but he will be in the top 5.

Fat,

We all look at these races and the paths the horses take so differently, which is why it's so great.  I read all your counterpoints last night and it made me go back and look at Gemologist again.  It helped me to understand your perspective, yet feel good about Gem if he drfits to 7/8-1.

The only point you made I disagreed with was about him not running in the Florida Derby.  I could turn that around and say:

1) El Padrino was a very viable option to put there.

2) He went to NY and Hansen dodged him.

I wasn't a Gemologist supporter until I viewed the preps.   For my money he's sitting on a monster.  More so, I think the connections know it, and I base that on the way he was ridden in NY.  Castellano rode him like he was 1/9 and then found himself in a horse race.

Look forward to more discussion. 

HB

Holybull comparing Gemologist vs a horse I am high on Union Rags is a very difficult comparison. Gemologist and Union have identical numbers this year (thoro) and are both fine animals. I think Gem is more likely to get the better trip. It comes down to Pletcher vs Matz. I just can't remember the last time a horse has improved third off the bench for Pletcher. It is just not his style. A 2 or 98 beyer is not going to be good enough to win the derby although it could get you 2nd. Matz never gets his horses to fire first off the bench and they almost always improve. Gemologist dodged Union IMO which I don't blame him as he needed the money. I'm not sure what Hansen's situation was but I believe they wanted to get him back to kentucky and ready for the derby. Synthetic tends to prepare a horse well for dirt (street sense) as it can be more tiring. Plus he wouldn't have to travel after the race and he didn't need the money. I can't fault you for liking Gemologist.
I just don't think Pletcher has his horses sitting on big ones third off the bench so I would disagree on that.

I love Creative Cause. I will do a tri with most of the horses you mentioned, but my big bet will be Creative Cause across the board.

It seems like I always hit the across the board bets in Derby but miss my tri by 1 horse every year. Shifting the money this year to "across the board".

Good luck. I will be at the Derby. Love it this time of year in Louisville (where I am at)

I give Union Rags a lot of respect and cannot deny the fact he finished in front of a few horses he will be facing in the derby. So I am expecting him to be right there at the end. I just think Gemologist sticks out from the rest.

He has won 2 two turn races at Churchill as a 2yr. old. Started out his 3yr. old campaign with the type of improvement and progression you want to see in a horse heading into the derby. i think people are going to be surprise how easily he wins.

Trump card for Gem is, hes fast out of the gate.

Couple that with the post they wanted,and a good stalking style.

I couldn't agree more.  Exactly the way I see it right now.

HB

You guys know he did come home in 13 and change? and 25 plus for the quarter before that. Those are not derby winning numbers. Maybe he will win, I HIGHLY doubt it. Win easy? The only horse capable of winning easy is Bode

HB I just sent you a message. Check it out when you get a minute