KY DERBY PREPS DISSECTED

The Grade II Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16th at Gulfstream Park 2/26/12.

The 2012 debut of early favorite and Juvie runner up Union Rags.

I think pretty much everyone expected a more testing spot for UR, but the Pletcher trained Discreet Dancer was no match after setting very soft splits.  Quality of the field would have to be drawn into question at least a bit, because after splits of 24 2/5, 48 & 1:12, UR rolled right past this field at will under a handride.  Either the field was somehwat weak or he was just that good!

https://www.drf.com/events/fountain-youth-stakes-gulfstream-park

HB

The Grade III Gotham, 1 1/16th on the Aqueduct Inner on 3/3/12.

Two Derby Contenders were produced from this field, Juvie winner Hansen and Illinois Derby winner Done Talking.

Let's take Hansen first.  I think this prep confirms a few things.  First and foremost he WILL NOT rate.  What I mean by this is, you won't find him five lengths off the lead. He will be within two lengths(at most, more likely much less) from the front runner. He's going to run very fast splits and let that speed take him as far as it can.  That just may be good enough too, because this guy has a very fast cruising speed.   The only reason he was not on the lead in this prep was the post position as he was parked in the 12.   Wide on both turns and drew off nicely in the lane.  He recorded a 95 Beyer on a track listed as "Good." Competition can be questioned in this spot, but he showed the ability to handle adversity in a large field.  I give the prep an "A-" for Hansen.

If the track is playing to speed on Derby Day I think this guy will be tough as nails with the foundation he's put together.  A main concern will be how fast Trinniberg goes.  If Trinniberg goes :23 & high :46, then Hansen should be able to hang around.  If Trinniberg hits :45 / low :46 all hell could be breaking loose at the the quarter pole.  I think it is a 100% must that Hansen draws outside of both Bode & Trinniberg.

Off his Juvie and this race alone Hansen scares me.  There's not a lot in his Dam's profile to suggest he will or won't get 1 1/4, but I wouldn't readily dimiss a Tapit of having enough stamina to standalone.

Done Talking, first off the bench in 2012, got no play in the window after a fast closing fourth in the Remsen at 2yo.  Showed no interest in the early stages, though the jockey asked for some run at the start.  Never really engaged in the race at any point and would be difficult for me to consider him at all based on this prep.  He finished an even 10th with a 59 Beyer.

https://www.drf.com/events/gotham-stakes-aqueduct

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The Swale Stakes, 7F @ Gulfstream Park on 3/10/12.

Trinniberg is the only contender for the field, as his connections, unfortunately, have caught Derby Fever.

This was Trinniberg's first race of his 3yo campaign.  He wins easily with an easy first split of :22 3/5, and quick second split of :22 1/5 and jogged away from a field of horses who don't appear to be sprinters of a high caliber.  There was never any serious pressure for the son of Teuflesberg who has never raced beyond one turn to date.  I imagine no scenario (other than Willie falling off) where Trinni doesn't have the lead through four and possibly six or seven furlongs (pushing it).  I can imagine them scraping him off the track when he finishes a very badly beaten 19th or 20th.

With all the great opportunities for sprinting 3yos, I find it hard to believe these connections would risk the well being of the horse in such an improbable spot.

https://www.drf.com/events/gulfstream-park-handicap-gulfstream-park

https://static.drf.com/horse/charts/gp2012031010.pdf

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The Grade II San Felipe, 1 1/16th @ Santa Anita on March 10th.

Four contenders participated, Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Liaison and Rousing Sermon.

Bodemeister had a great start and achieved a perfect stalking trip behind American Act into the first turn.  They cut out a fast, but not blistering, first quarter by Santa Anita standards and then set a more moderate pace throughout the middle parts of the race.  In Bode's second time around two turns and first time against winners he got a perfect trip and appeared understandably unseasoned in the lane as he bore out in the last 1/16th.  He didn't embarass himself with the effort, but appeared overmatched when Creative Cause switched leads and found another gear in the final 100 yards.

Creative Cause was very confidently handled.  Three wide in the first turn and four or five wide on the turn for home.   He appeared to struggle a bit with his lead at the top of the stretch and bore out.  He finally switched over in the final 150 yards or so and kicked away confidently from Bode.  Bode got a 101 and CC a 102 Beyer for their efforts.

Liaison, found his way to the rail after a sluggish start.  Had no kick entering the lane and was the benefactor of a rail skimming trip as he got up for fourth. 

Rousing Sermon, started slow and also found his way over to the inside to save ground.  Although he showed more kick and was wider than Liaison, his turn of foot was less than inspiring in this effort.

I take a few things from this prep:

1)  "I'm not sure" Bode wants to go by horses.  You won't know until he looks Hansen in the eye, because that's the first one he's going toe to toe with.

2) Creative Cause was one million times the best horse in this race.  I'm not sure Bode is making up three to four lengths in two months, because that's what it would have been had they gone another 3/16ths.

3) From my perspective, Liaison is unbettable in the top four spots.  I handicap based on past performances, these replays and other factors.  I just can't see a thoroughbred being that bad at Santa Anita and then completely reversing his form because the venue has changed.  Could that happen with Baffert?   Sure it could.  But you have to take a stand somewhere and Liaison will be off my tickets unless something changes in the next five days.

4) I will continue to consider Rousing Sermon underneath (for now), but this was quite a dull effort.

https://www.drf.com/events/san-felipe-stakes-santa-anita

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The Grade II Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16th on March 10th.

Our only contender was John Oxley and Mark Casse's, Prospective.

The son of Malibu Moon showed good tactical speed from the gate. Hugged the rail for the first six furlongs. When asked at the mid point engaged the leader and took the lead entering for home.  It was all he had to hold off longshot Golden Ticket, and it seemed to be more a battle of attrition in the the end.

I don't see his place in the race on Saturday.  He will sit a meaningless 10th or so and never menace based on this effort.  He showed no signs of wanting more than a mile in this effort.

I said in an earlier post that this one appeared to want to close, however it's tough to see him wanting more ground considering he didn't run away and hide from this field late.

Prospective will be a toss for me. 

Not much more to say about this one.

https://www.drf.com/events/tampa-bay-derby-tampa-bay-downs

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The Grade III Palm Beach, 1 1/8th @ Gulfstream 3/11/12 on the TURF.

In his first start of 2012 on turf Dullahan made strong middle move and was parked very wide on the turn for home.  The pace was moderate so the effort is strong, but it's extremely difficult to say whether or not the performance will translate to dirt.

Not a lot of seasoning gained from an effort like this, but his supporters will claim he had plenty of that at 2yo and his Blue Grass caught him up to the field.

I can't chastise his supporters (Not that I would anyway) for liking this first step for one of the Derby Favorites.

https://www.drf.com/events/palm-beach-stakes-gulfstream-park

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The Grade III Spiral @ Turfway, 1 1/18th on Poly 3/24/12.

Wen the Day Well was our lone Derby Starter from this field. 

I want to clear one thing up about this horse.  There are not many similarities between this 3yo and last year's Derby Winner AK.  Other than connections and they both won the Spiral, similarities pretty much stop there.

This guy may like the turf, but he wasn't necessarily bred for it, and it's not like he doesn't have some experience over the dirt.  He raced twice on dirt and was rather average both times.

This performance was good, but what strikes me, is that after quick splits early, nobody was coming at him in the lane.  I seriously question the level of competition he has faced.  Not only in the spiral either. 

In the Spiral he showed good tactical speed and excellent turn of foot on the final turn and in the stretch, but they went the mile split in :26 1/5.  It appears he may appreciate the extra distance, but frankly I'm not sold on the talent level.   Motion is an outstanding trainer, but I'm pretty sure this guy is no AK.

Good luck if you like him, but at best he'll find his way into the exotics for me.

https://www.drf.com/events/vinery-spiral-stakes-turfway-park

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The Grade III Sunland Derby, 1 1/8th 3/25/12 @ Sunland.

Only Steve Assmussen's Daddy Nose Best moved on to the Derby from this field.

It's really a shame Isn't He Clever didn't recover from this effort because he would have been a must use for me.  Anyway I digress.

I have a hard time liking DNB off this effort.  I just think he was the beneficiary of two awful rides.  First, Bejarano running Castaway into the ground by dueling with Ender Knievel and then an extremely premature move by Contreras on Isn't He Clever.  After blistering early splits and that awful judgement by Contreras, DNS just barely got up int he shadow of the wire.

The Beyer is there (100).  The closing is there. The rider is perfect (Gomez).  The warrior trait is what I'm not seeing from this effort.

He's probably a use for me, because of the running style, but I'm going to be dismissive, because of this effort.

https://www.drf.com/events/sunland-derby-sunland-park

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Ok.  This has been somewhat exhausting, but a great exercise as I think I'm getting a good feel for this field.  Hope this is helping others too.

I have 12 preps left, three of which have zero Derby Starters.  I plan on taking three on each of the next three days.  I hope this field is starting to come together for you.  It is for me.

Throw outs at present:

Trinniberg, Prospective, Liaison.

Out of contention for the "win" :

Daddy Nose Best, Rousing Sermon. Went the Day Well, Done Talking.

Leaning towards tossing:

Daddy Long Legs.

Most impressive prep to date (thru 3/24/12):

Creative Cause San Felipe.  Crushed Bode on this day, just crushed him!

Talk to you all tomorrow!

HB

Atlas, I have an opinion on the Blue Grass that I have yet to read anywhere else.  I'm not saying I'm right, but I don't think Hansen saw Dullahan come down the outside.  I'm not sure the outcome would have changed, because Dullahan appeared to easily make up the ground, but he was so far out in the track I don't think Hansen saw him.

I need to be careful, because I quickly dismiss good poly efforts, and easily excuse dull poly efforts.  I don't want to make arguments for or against horses.  Trying to be as unbiased as possible.

I must say I am extremely skeptical of how effortlessly Dullahan did it in the final 1/8th.

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Ok here come the big boys!

First up is the Grade I Florida Derby, 1 1/8th 3/31/12 @ Gulfstream Park.

Three key contenders made their final preps in this race.  Co-favorite Union Rags, Take Charge Indy & El Padrino.

Take Charge Indy made the lead and cut out moderate fractions and finished well.  He rode the rail from the first turn all the way to the wire.  One thing I noticed, Borel actually let two horses stick necks in front of him on the turn for home.  It was a strange move, but TCI rated nicely and then easily regained the lead and held off Reveron under right handed urging (I counted seven cracks of the whip, all right hand).  If the race were another 1/8th of mile I'm not sure anyone was getting to TCI.  I think you can dissect his race two ways.  1) He skimmed a golden rail, set moderate splits and looked better than he was on a speed favoring track.  2) He was the best horse who got a real nice trip and showed a nice ability to rate and this was a useful prep.  A useful prep, nothing more or less. 

Union Rags was very confidently ridden into the first turn.  It appeared as though Leparoux was content on staying three wide and not getting caught on the inside.  He was wrangled back about five off the pace and content to sit until midway through the final turn.  When he was finally asked it took him at least an 1/8th of a mile to really kick into gear.  I saw four cracks of the whip and they were late in the game, because Leparoux couldn't get him in the clear. I'm not sure whether to look at this effort and say he's just not that good, or say Leparoux screwed this up with his over confidence.  Sure he was coming late and "they" will say he finished up so great.  However, this prep doesn't woo me like it does some.  I also think Leparoux is a problem come Saturday.  I think jockeys who are ahead of him will out class him to the wire.  Tough call.

El Padrino was parked four plus wide in the first turn and four wide on the final turn.  He showed better tactical speed than UR but it did not appear he had the same kick.  This could be a product of a much wider trip or just less talent.  Though four wide he had clear sailing once they turned for home and he felt the whip nine times under Castellano.

My opinion of this prep is that you need to upgrade UR & EP for their efforts on a speed favoring track with very wide trips (especially EP), but I would not carelessly dismiss TCI as a speedster who will get used up in the expected fast pace.  This was a strong prep and he shouldn't be discounted because he benefited from the Gulfstream rail.

These are three key contenders (not that you didn't know this already).

The quality of this video feed is much better than previous posts.  I would suggest you get your replays from NTRA or Youtube rather than DRF.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwNRvqJzqP8

HB

The $2,000,000 UAE Derby, 1 3/16th @ Nad Al Sheba 3/31/12.

Daddy Long Legs was the winner and only participant in the Derby Field.

There's truly not a ton to say about this effort.  He rated nicely off the pace setter, tipped out past that one and lasted to the wire.  It's hard to like him off this effort as he appears to sputter in the lane and he was never really looked in the eye at any point.  I don't think this kind of effort gives a horse the kind of seasoning it needs to win the Derby.  Additionally he only raced once at 3yo and that's not necessarily the foundation you're looking for when reaching down in the final furlong at the Twin Spires.  Not to mention the circus act you'll have in the saddle.

I will probably toss him based on his prep, his breeding and his lack of a solid dirt effort.  However, I will caution you.  He does have the following unique characteristics:

1) He's run and won longer than anyone else in the field @ 1 3/16ths.

2) He's raced and won in the largest and second largest fields of anyone in the race (14 & 15 horse fields). (Note: three other horses raced in 14 horse fields). 

3) He has the second most earnings in the field. (Hansen has most)

This guy's a complete toss for me, but wouldn't blame anyone for throwing him in the bottom somewhere.

https://www.drf.com/news/2012-dubai-world-cup-entries-uae-derby

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The Grade II Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8th @ Fair Grounds on 4/1/12.

After the defection of Mark Valeski only Rousing Sermon remains.

He's a closer plain and simple.  If you think the pace will collapse to a monumental extent then he should be on your tickets. 

In this race he saved ground on the first turn but was wide and like seven wide on the back stretch and turn for home.  An awful ride.  However, even if he saves ground it doesn't appear as though he's going to get to the top two in this race and Hero of Order was 100-1, so "come on."

I would consider him for the bottom of the super and it would be a stretch for the bottom of the tri.  The other huge issue I have with his inclusion is his lack of a competitive Beyer.  Just not in the ball park and I don't think Lezcano will make up the 10-12 Beyer points it's going to take to win here.

I may include him in the very bottom of exotics, but most likely another who is probably a toss for me after watching all his preps.

https://www.drf.com/news/fair-grounds-hero-order-wins-shocker-109-1-louisiana-derby

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The Grade I Wood Memorial, 1 1/8th @ Aqueduct on 4/7/12.

Some serious substance to this race with Gemologist and Alpha slugging it out to the wire.

Gemologist was very quick out of the gate and confidently handled, but raced very wide into the first turn.  Five wide to be exact and was very intent on contesting near, not necessarily on, the pace.  He seemed to be pulling Javier early.  He settled in comfortably on the back stretch while still out into the track but rated a few lengths back of the leader.  They went :23 flat and relaxed a bit to :47 2/5 for four furlongs.  Gemologist made an additional three wide move to gain the advantage turning for home (while getting additional resistance form the Lumber Guy) and then dove down to the rail.  I counted a minimum of six right handed cracks of the whip and at last one lefty for Gemologist.  He appeared to get a bit lazy as Alpha collared him with about qoo yds to go, but then it looks as though he digs back in and starts to extend a bit at the wire.  I don't think Alpha was ever going by him.  The Beyer came back a 98.  A short jump off his first 3yo race where he got a 95 going one turn.  His final 100yds was reminiscent of his sire's Breeder's Cup wins where he digs deep. 

Alpha checked badly midway through the first turn.  It cost him a bit of position, but I would guess he was going to be pulled back a bit anyway.  He made a move midway up the back stretch to pull even with Gemologist, and then waited for something to open up inside.  When nothing opened inside Dominguez took him three wide and followed right behind Gemologist.  Alpha appeared to hang a bit in mid stretch, but under some serious left handed cracks (I counted 11 in all) he made up three or four lengths on the leader but ended up a well beaten neck.

This effort is very close to an A+ for me, especially with the Lumber Guy coming back to win and headed for the Preakness.  However I am a bit concerned over the time of the race.  From four furlongs on, they pretty much crawled home.

I don't think Alpha was ever going by Gemologist, but I wouldn't rule out this being a very key race and both hitting the board on Sunday.

I am a HUGE Gemologist fan after watching this effort. 

Tiznow on top and Mr.P down low.  How can you not be a little excited about his prospects?

https://www.drf.com/events/wood-memorial-aqueduct

HB

The Grade III Bay Shore, 7F @ Aqueduct on 4/7/12.

Trinniberg the only Derby contender.

This effort does not require a long analysis.  Unfortunately this 3yo does not belong in the Derby and his connections (although it is their right) are likely ruingin what could be a prosperous summer sprinting campaign.  He easily got the lead in a first quarter that was slower than the Wood and a four furlong split that was equal to the Wood.

He will 100% have the lead and it will be for approximately seven furlongs.  The million dollar question is, does he destroy the chances of others, that is what we all need to answer.

A very interesting pearl I heard while listenign to the race.  Durkin states that they ran an opening quarter "into the wind."  You rarely hear him mention wind, so it was significant, and I think this is relevant because maybe it explains the slow second half of the Wood.  At least that's what I'm selling.  Anyone buying?

Trinniberg is a toss.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtwKMIfrX2E

HB

The Grade III Illinois Derby, 1 1/8th @ Hawthorne on 4/7/12

The only Derby Starter from this field will be Done Talking.

Another horse where if you are convinced the pace will collapse, this guy will have a chance to clunk up for a small piece, but he is not a quality enough horse from what I've seen to be near the top two spots in this race (again third & fourth are reaches as well).  I mean serious reaches.

Done Talking broke from the 13 post.  He had a tardy beginning and immediately moved to the inside where he began to accelerate a bit to just behind the middle of the pack.  He saved ground around the track and came up the inside (two path to be exact) as they turned for home.  He grinded his way through the final furlong and got up past horses that were basically going in reverse.  The final three furlongs of this race was run in over :40 seconds, and it's not like they blitzed the first six furlongs.  Not in the same universe of some others and I don't care about surface or anything else.

This guy would be impossible for me to use.

Done Talking is a toss for me.

https://www.drf.com/events/illinois-derby-hawthorne

HB

The Grade I Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8th @ Santa Anita on 4/7/12.

I'll Have Another, Creative Cause & Liaison all contested this race.

I'll Have Another got a good early stalking position and saved ground with the jock very high in the saddle early (strangely high on him).  It appeared as though the leader was getting away from him, but IHA waited until Creative Cause engaged him on his inside.  Once that foe came up his inside IHA kicked into gear and was three wide turning for home, outside of CC.  He appeared to bore out a little in stretch, but kept to task with several left handed reminders.  He prevailed in the shadow of the wire over a very game Creative Cause.

Creative Cause broke smartly and was taken to the back of the pack saving ground.  He made an inside move of the winner on the turn for home and engaged that one in a long stretch duel.  I only see Rosario on replay hit him twice, he may have hit him a couple more times in the final yards, but it's difficult to see because he was between horses.  I think there is more bottom to this horse and I don't think the 1 1/4 will be a problem at all.

My opinion is, if CC had drawn outside instead of the rail, he wins this race.  Not that this race matters, but he looked like the better horse, but these two are very close in talent.

I think Liaison is a toss for anything significant.  One thing I will say is that he appeared to not want to go inside of horses down the lane.  Once he got outside of horses he passed the last three finishers very quickly and finished a dull 6th, but he showed no move in the middle part of the race that tells me he wants any part of Saturday.

Beyer figures for this race did come up a bit short, but CC already shows he belongs and IHA certainly wouldn't be a shock either. 

A thing to keep in mind is that IHA absolutely needed to finish first or second to make it to the Derby, so now doubt he was 100% on "go."  CC only needed to continue to progress with a good effort because his spot in the gate was solidified.

I couldn't criticize anyone for thinking these two will have a major say on Saturday.  For my money I will place CC slighty ahead of IHA.

https://www.drf.com/events/santa-anita-derby-santa-anita

HB