I know I'm in the minority on this one, but I will be shocked if he is the post time favorite.......assuming Mo runs. I think Mo will be three clicks lower than the rest of the field, if not more (like 7/2 and then 5 or 6-1). His back class lays over this field and there isn't one other three year old that could compare if he ever regains close to that form. Plus that 108 Beyer over the track is a huge advantage.....HUGE!
Crazy I know, but I can't get past the fact that this field would get crushed in almost any other Derby field.
Another observation. I wouldn't throw any contender out who arises from the preps in the next two weeks. This has every right to be a "Charismatic" type year.
Roused, this isn't a shot at your future wager, only an observation re: the betting line. I think Dialed In has every right to improve off that Gulfstream form and certainly in with a gigantic shot.
Great info Bull, ya I also feel that this has the type of a "Charismatic" kind of horse that could win the Derby. I feel that the post time favorite will go no lower than 5-1. In 2006 they also thought that it would be wide open also as I believe the morning line favorite was Brother Derek. Not sure on his odds, but Barbaro won as his odds were 6-1 on the race. As for the pace type I think it all hinders on if The Factor gets to run in the race. If he does we might see somthing insane ala 2005 when they ran the half at 45 sec and 3/4 at 1:09 and change as I see them trying to catch him and by this I mean other pace setters. If the factor does not run, I believe that the winner will be someone who will be stalking the pace and hold of the closers. Just my two cents for now as the Derby is still many more days ahead and we have to see who the 20 official runners will be.
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Quote Originally Posted by HolyBull:
I know I'm in the minority on this one, but I will be shocked if he is the post time favorite.......assuming Mo runs. I think Mo will be three clicks lower than the rest of the field, if not more (like 7/2 and then 5 or 6-1). His back class lays over this field and there isn't one other three year old that could compare if he ever regains close to that form. Plus that 108 Beyer over the track is a huge advantage.....HUGE!
Crazy I know, but I can't get past the fact that this field would get crushed in almost any other Derby field.
Another observation. I wouldn't throw any contender out who arises from the preps in the next two weeks. This has every right to be a "Charismatic" type year.
Roused, this isn't a shot at your future wager, only an observation re: the betting line. I think Dialed In has every right to improve off that Gulfstream form and certainly in with a gigantic shot.
Great info Bull, ya I also feel that this has the type of a "Charismatic" kind of horse that could win the Derby. I feel that the post time favorite will go no lower than 5-1. In 2006 they also thought that it would be wide open also as I believe the morning line favorite was Brother Derek. Not sure on his odds, but Barbaro won as his odds were 6-1 on the race. As for the pace type I think it all hinders on if The Factor gets to run in the race. If he does we might see somthing insane ala 2005 when they ran the half at 45 sec and 3/4 at 1:09 and change as I see them trying to catch him and by this I mean other pace setters. If the factor does not run, I believe that the winner will be someone who will be stalking the pace and hold of the closers. Just my two cents for now as the Derby is still many more days ahead and we have to see who the 20 official runners will be.
Disagree Bull. Dialed In will be favorite. He beat the best field of any Derby Prep. You have Zito and Leparoux. Also, he has one over the surface.
The only way Dialed In is the favorite is if square bettors who see the morning line and the Florida Derby win spend enough on $2 tickets to compensate for the big gamblers who won't risk big bucks on less than 7-1 on a horse that will be sitting 17 lengths off the lead.
When is the last flying closer that was a Derby favorite. That is your clue for Dialed In's final odds.
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Quote Originally Posted by Roused:
Disagree Bull. Dialed In will be favorite. He beat the best field of any Derby Prep. You have Zito and Leparoux. Also, he has one over the surface.
The only way Dialed In is the favorite is if square bettors who see the morning line and the Florida Derby win spend enough on $2 tickets to compensate for the big gamblers who won't risk big bucks on less than 7-1 on a horse that will be sitting 17 lengths off the lead.
When is the last flying closer that was a Derby favorite. That is your clue for Dialed In's final odds.
Rousy - I respect you for posting this and putting your neck out on the line. a lot of guys/gals never do that in here but they sure take shots at others you might feel like hell now cuz he flopped but hey horses flop all the time in this game.
1. the horse as we suspected simply was not fast enough or good enough. turns out those damn Beyer figs were accurate!!!
2. he also seemed to be "all out" to close into a 9 furlong distance. so he didn't really have it to close into a 10 furlong race especially with in this case 18 other horses out there kicking up dirt and praying for their life. he needed the whole stretch in the Florida Derby to nip a bomber so it wasn't exactly the recipe for a horse begging to go longer. plus, all that stuff about what they paid at auction you can take that and throw it out the window. it may work at times but it is hardly reliable.
just a little piece of advice - this game is WAY, WAY smarter than you and all of us for that matter so if you can avoid "calling your shot" like you are Babe Ruth and proclaiming any horse is a "lock" then I'm sure you won't attract any smacks in the face from the guys in here. you really have brought it on yourself
i believe some of us told you this last summer when you "emptied your savings account" to bet on a gal in one of those G1's at The Spa. I remember it was the race Blind Luck won and your gal folded. either way maybe you bet it or you did not. it's mighty tough to be Babe Ruth and calling your shot in this game
i got nothing against you. i'm just realistic about this game.
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Rousy - I respect you for posting this and putting your neck out on the line. a lot of guys/gals never do that in here but they sure take shots at others you might feel like hell now cuz he flopped but hey horses flop all the time in this game.
1. the horse as we suspected simply was not fast enough or good enough. turns out those damn Beyer figs were accurate!!!
2. he also seemed to be "all out" to close into a 9 furlong distance. so he didn't really have it to close into a 10 furlong race especially with in this case 18 other horses out there kicking up dirt and praying for their life. he needed the whole stretch in the Florida Derby to nip a bomber so it wasn't exactly the recipe for a horse begging to go longer. plus, all that stuff about what they paid at auction you can take that and throw it out the window. it may work at times but it is hardly reliable.
just a little piece of advice - this game is WAY, WAY smarter than you and all of us for that matter so if you can avoid "calling your shot" like you are Babe Ruth and proclaiming any horse is a "lock" then I'm sure you won't attract any smacks in the face from the guys in here. you really have brought it on yourself
i believe some of us told you this last summer when you "emptied your savings account" to bet on a gal in one of those G1's at The Spa. I remember it was the race Blind Luck won and your gal folded. either way maybe you bet it or you did not. it's mighty tough to be Babe Ruth and calling your shot in this game
i got nothing against you. i'm just realistic about this game.
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you might feel like hell now cuz he flopped but hey horses flop all the time in this game. 
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