Dialed In 30-1 Derby Futures Bet.

Locked it in today. Just had another nice workout.

Let us know who it is so we can have an easy throwout.      

The Derby just got one horse easier for the rest of us here.   

Oh the horse was in the Title sorry.   

Anybody got the past peformances for Dialed In's only race?    I couldn't find them.  

I was looking at the chart of his race and there was 3 other first time starters in there,  a couple horses that came from Hoosier,  one from Preque Isle Downs and 3 longshots who last raced at Keeneland.

He had a 75 Beyer for the race.   Without the trouble what would his Beyer have been?

Just trying to figure out how impressive that race actually was.    As far as the slow start,  how do we know for sure that it was actually a slow start or that he might just be a slow breaking horse?    Zenyatta broke slow every race.   That was her running style.   How do we know it's not the same for this guy.   A lot of horses break slow.

As far as the trouble he had on the turn,  I'm not sure that was much trouble at all.    Almost looked like it was just horses passing him.   The announcer said he "blew the turn" , but watch the race,  is that really true?    

I was impressed because this horse was green as hell and still won for fun. With experience, watch out. Love the breeding and connections too.

I love to breed too. That Green Monkey was the best horse ever to never to win a race.

Shit, wrong green. Projecting a horse to win a race 5 months away is for fools and idiots.

gl   roused.

30-1....that would be nice

Thanks, he might not even run in the race, but at 30-1, what the hell. Just watch the replay, the horse is gigantic. Almost Zenyatta like.

You know what...contrary to popular belief[, a  $10 investment is a rather cheap way of knowing[long odds that  they may be ] you called it, knowing you have  a 30-1 going in the gate that is now 7-1 on Derby day

I wouldnt do it often and he would have to be something special as you stated ,but Ive done it before and fell flat on my face, but would  do it again with the right horse. gl

Agreed   

The horse has ran and won 1 race against questionable maiden competition,   had a so so Beyer for a maiden win,   he has no idea who this horse is going to be running against or if he will run in the Derby at all. 

He says he "won for fun" but the horse won the race by 1/2 a length.   And I've already dissected the so called "trouble" he had during the race up above.    It might not have been much trouble at all.      

And there is a lot of luck involved in winning the Derby on top of it even if the horse is talented.

Maybe 100-1 or more would be fair value at this point.    30-1 is not nearly enough.   

75 beyer in the debut and late in the year no less at the end of the churchill meet when very thin.  garbage stiffs from PA tracks in the race (no offense against pennsylvania). 

hell if he were a monster he woulda been in against a solid crew and at least run an 85.  i'll take a looksie if he runs in the high 90's in a G1 or G2 in march or april.

how about smash? u forget him both horses cant win the derby

When I cap first time starters I always look at early ability. Seen enough million dollar babys flop. So this caught my eye. Uncle Sam in todays first race at Santa Anita had a bullet first work of 3f fst 35.2 Hg on the polly (Hollywood) That was his first work ever . Morning line 6-1 on the Baffort/Kaleem Shah horse. Horse bet to favorite. Kaleem got $$$, love the name "Uncle Sam" Pencil him in to win the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup Classic.

Horse did win nicely going a mile on the dirt. No easy feat. Race was scheduled for turf.

 

 

The Papplemouse was gigantic.

Smash was injured and his one race was impressive, but DI's blew that one away. Just watch the replay.

Grey I made one future bet in my life. I was at Lake Tahoe and up quite a bit so I put a $50 chip on Real Quite. Got 15-1 and this was before his last prep. Had no idea if the horse would even go to the Derby. FYI- Real Quite won the Deby at 15-1.

Uncle Mo looked great in the BC Juvenile....Im assuming he is still hot on the derby trail?? I havent been able to keep up with much racing the last couple months

Uncle Mo is the clear cut favorite and best horse at the moment, but Dialed's win was so impressive that its worth taking a shot. Won at Churchill too.

Nothing is going to stop this guy from betting on this horse.  

He ran right around par for a 2yo male and factoring in the trip he had and the fact that Zito doesn't tighten the screws first time out it was a nice effort.
How much he develops is anyone's guess.
Uncle Mo is head and shoulders above anyone else right now but who knows if he makes it to the gate in May.

rousy not giving you a hard time here but what path do you see Zito sending him on?  which graded stakes will he not only run in but hit the exacta in to get the required earnings to get invited?

i figure Nick is a NYRA and Gulfstream guy so it will be there.  he may give him an allowance race in January so unless he romps there it will be  for him to even be eligible.

He'll be in Florida.
There's a NW1x for him on 1/7 going 8f

ok, so down at Gulfstream this will be a one turn mile.  if he is considerably faster than his first figs suggest he should be bet off the board and draw clear down the lane.  still won't be a two turn effort much less a win.  so we'll see.  i am not saying he won't do it but there are still some hurdles her for him to even have a trip in a trailer booked for him to loiusville. 

There are hurdles with any 2yo. Zito's horses historically explode sometime during their 3yo season. It all depends on the timing for each individual horse..
 The horse's debut number was fine and falls right in line with good Zito 2yo debut numbers in the past.

it sounds like you are a bit higher on this guy then you are letting on.

even though this race coming up is on a friday I doubt it is a gimme for Zito.  if it is the first 8 furlong N1X for three year olds only at Gulfstream the field might be fairly large and there might be 6 or 7 horses coming off a "nice" maiden win.  let's see how he handles this first.  if he romps then good for him on to a G2.  if he barely wins or loses then it will be a tall order for him to all of a sudden explode and get in much less win the KY Derby. 

i agree that Nick takes his time.  some of those end up like Ice Box and Fly Down.  nice horses but simply not fast enough and by that i don't mean on the pace just ability overall.