Dialed In 30-1 Derby Futures Bet.

if he doesn't win convincingly then in order to even be eligible for the KY Derby he would have likely three chances to take down a Graded Stakes between 1/7 and early May.  so two things stand out to me:

1. if he doesn't look good does he even get placed in a graded event next out?  if not then he is down to two more attempts to get the earnings

2. what are his chances of hitting the board in these graded events if after his first two races he hasn't shown any great ability

ok, got some time on my hands today so i went to the Gulfstream site.

1/30 - Holy Bull G3 one turn mile

2/26 - Davona Dale G2 one turn mile

2/26 - Fountain of Youth G2 nine furlongs

3/12 - Palm Beach G3 nine furlongs (turf)

4/3 - Swale G2 seven furlongs

4/3 - Flordia Derby G1 nine furlongs

Those are all the graded events at Gulfstream for three year olds only and not fillies.  one is on turf and one is a sprint so not typical Zito preps for the Derby.  NYRA has some options as well.  however, the two top horses from the NYRA circuit will be involved here as well along with lord knows how many other horses that we have seen or haven't seen yet. 

he could do it but just getting there is going to be a challenge unless we see something special on 1/7.

good data

however, a 2YO running a race in June is a helluva lot different than one in November.  we both know they are growing up quick so when those races you point out took place is an important part of that puzzle. 

this dialed in guy making debut late in the year when the crews are suspect is another reason why my antenna is up and my red flag is ready to be thrown. 

ok

my point i suppose ultimately was that the debut was not very good much less great and it is a major longshot that he will win and he could very well not even get in the starting gate.

where is rousy?

he/she is supposed to lay out the campaign to us after he wins this spin on 1/7 by ten lengths.  prolly be a formality to just go through the motions and win a couple of graded stakes. 

I had I Want Revenge (57-1 I think) and Eskendereya (28-1 I think) the past two years.  Sounds like a lie, but it's not.  I posted here when I bet them.  That being said, I'll still dabble in futures.  Very exciting to watch those horses get rolling as the Derby approached.  Derby Day......not so much.

I've never seen Roused pick a winner with odds over 2-1,  the chances of him being right about this are about 1,000,000 to 1.   

The Churchill announcer goes nuts about this horse during his call and Roused falls for it.  

 Roused

Wow, why all the hatred ? Listen, just like when I watched Zenyatta's first race, Dialed In's was just as visually impressive. Again, I love the connections and the breeding. Just have to make sure he gets the earnings to get in.

Not hate Roused.       If the horse wins the Derby,  you can rub it in mine and a few other peoples faces.    

I think you're going way overboard based on a maiden race but I've definitely been wrong before.   

Dialed In

Date: January 4, 2011
Track: PALM MEADOWS TRAINING CENTER
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 47:90 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/37

Interesting workout ....BEST of 37 today......gonna hurt some odds....

Intresting: I didnt expect these two horses to compete against eachother in the hal's hope on saturday

He's definitely in with a lot better horses this time.

Past Performances   

Quote Originally Posted by JimRockford:

Derby Future Bets = Sucker Bets

Agreed 100%, it's like buying a lottery ticket!