I just bet $100 on Machen at 40-1 on bet us-- normally dont play futures but this horse will be under 10-1 if he wins his derby prep at the FG-- already 2-2 in romps

Good luck, but if Mo, Dialed, Factor, Comma  and Honor show up, he will be well over 20-1

I doubt that Dialed In would have beaten Soldat if Dialed In hadn't scratched from that allowance race at Gulfstream. 

I know it was a wet track,  but Soldat has done very little wrong in his career so far.     He's already ran against a huge field also in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and done well.    He's got the early speed to get a good trip in the Derby.

And who's to say the track won't come up wet on Derby day.  

And he hasn't really run a dirt race on a dry track yet so you can't be sure that the wet track is the reason he's running so well.    He might just be a great horse.


Soldat is 30 to 1 at BetUS.


I don't bet futures.       If I did,  I might throw some on Soldat.

I'm not big on speed figures but just for comparison.  


Soldat had a 102 Beyer in that allowance race.

Dialed In had a 96 Beyer in the Holy Bull.

Soldat's big win in slop earns him shot at Fountain of Youth

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – “Can you get me the long range forecast for Florida Derby Day?”

That was a smiling Kiaran McLaughlin’s first comment in the winner’s circle after his 3-year-old prospect Soldat had skipped through the slop to a convincing 10 3/4-length victory over Cool Blue Red Hot and five other 3-year-olds in Friday’s nine-furlong allowance feature. The performance thrust Soldat, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up, right into the thick of any current discussion regarding potential Kentucky Derby candidates.

McLaughlin was hoping to find out “now rather than later” whether Soldat, already a Grade 3 stakes winner on grass, could be as effective on dirt as he has been on turf. And while he couldn’t have been happier with the result, McLaughlin admits the only thing he knows for sure is that Soldat is going to be a tough horse to beat down the road over a wet racetrack.

“That was an impressive race but it was wet out there so how he handles a fast track might still be a question,” said McLaughlin. “The one thing I do know for certain is that the track was brown, not green today, so that’s good. Staying the distance was a question going in but he was pressured all the way by a nice horse and was still able to pull away. And I just loved the way he galloped out.”

Soldat, who was ridden by Alan Garcia, received a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure for his second career victory on Friday, 18 points higher than the number he got for his second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup.

McLaughlin said he would definitely target the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 Fountain of Youth here on Feb. 26 for Soldat’s next start.

That allowance race at Gulfstream was a mile 1/8th.   The Derby is a mile 2/8ths.

There was 13 horses in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.    Not as many as the Derby obviously but there was still heavy traffic in the run to the first turn in that race and Soldat was right up there close and came out of it in good shape.   And he had something left at the end and was passing horses.

I doubt that Dialed In would have beaten Soldat if Dialed In hadn't scratched from that allowance race at Gulfstream. 

I know it was a wet track,  but Soldat has done very little wrong in his career so far.     He's already ran against a huge field also in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and done well.    He's got the early speed to get a good trip in the Derby.

And who's to say the track won't come up wet on Derby day.  

And he hasn't really run a dirt race on a dry track yet so you can't be sure that the wet track is the reason he's running so well.    He might just be a great horse.


Soldat is 30 to 1 at BetUS.


I don't bet futures.       If I did,  I might throw some on Soldat.

Never bet derby futures  

I watched replays of both of Soldat's maiden races last night and those tracks were not that WET at all, especially in his second race up in Saratoga , that track looked like it was almost dry.    His first race at Belmont the track was sealed and there was moisture but nothing like what he was running in at Gulfstream.    It was bright and sunny both races.

He finished second in both those races at 5 and 5.5 furlongs,  probably not his distance and the first two races of his career.    Durkin even said in the Saratoga race that he was running "greenly".


So what I'm saying is that I don't think a dry track is going to be a problem for him.

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. - Dialed In, sensational winner of the Grade 3 Holy Bull in just his second career start, worked five furlongs in 59.75 seconds at Palm Meadows on Friday under exercise rider Maxine Correa. The drill was the first for Dialed In since Feb. 11.

“He worked great and looked really good doing it,” said trainer Nick Zito. Correa, the trainer said, “had plenty of horse.”

Dialed In is running on Sunday in an allowance at Gulfstream with 4 other horses .    

LINKS    

Yeah, saw it in the DRF. Can't wait.

Best of Luck

Thanks Crusha.
Yeah, not betting at all, but will be watching with great interest. First two turn race and short field. Just stay healthy.

race 4 at GP on 3/6 just opened my form.  this is a goddamn disgrace to racing.  the other horse Zito entered could possibly run with him but he hung like a snot at a one turn mile.  the other three . . . well let's be polite by saying they are complete stiffs.  this is a joke carding a race just for this horse shame on him if he doesn't win by 10 geared down.  i'm not picking on Dialed In I just don't see why he can't run in a race already on the calendar?

no way in hell you can give him credit for "beating older horses" after this one.  they might be older but they might as well be walking ponies. 

the concern from the beginning was if he is fast enough and talented enough.  no excuses today and any that are put forward are garbage.  this makes me take a much more skeptical look at the Holy Bull and Risen Star by extension. 

Yeah, was not too impressed, but will get sweet odds for the Fla Derby. You had to be crazy to bet him at 1-5. Small field and slow pace.

He could have just "bounced".     He ran huge in the Holy Bull and had a killer workout before this race, 5F 59.4

It happens.   Horses don't give their best race everytime, unfortunately.

Plus the slow pace and chasing a 4 yr old who is also a pretty good closer.

I also have a feeling , like others have said, that Lezcano was trying to help him win the last 1/16th.   

BOUNCING   

Although after reading that,  most of it doesn't fit Dialed In.   

This is why the Derby future bets are a bit of joke.  If Dialed In finishes third or worse in the Fla Derby he will likely still got to the KY Derby and his odds will be right around that 30-1.

I am not buying any bounce theories or any other excuses from Camp Zito.  Hound, I know you re not making an excuse from him I am just saying there are no excuses here.  the horse had plenty of time to prepare for this race and come down from the Holy Bull.  Jesus Christ the race was literally created by Zito so how can he "bounce"?  this was an 80 MPH fastball right down broadway to Albert Pujols.  Pujols smacks it over the center field fence and Dialed In did not do that.

Let's take a looksie at the cast of characters assembled for this travesty.  now, bear in mind DI is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th choice on the futures tote board right now for the G1 Kentucky Derby.  The 3 was the winner and a fairly solid horse.  I bet him in his last race and i was disappointed as he hung down the lane.  nice horse but far from a monster.

The 1 horse was prolly 75/1 on the tote I don't remember.  In his last race he tried a G3 at Tampa.  He was 99/1 on the tote and finished last of 10 losing by just under 27 lengths.  in his race before that at Calder (far inferior to GP we would all agree) he coughed up the lead in a starter allowance race and was bet to 5/2.  prior to that he has showed nothing.   
the 2 horse has green blood and sure enough they had him on the lawn in his first three races.  he popped his cherry on the green but it was at a garbage track and he barely edged them.  they realized despite his daddy he wasn't a good turf horse and ran him in some solid races but he didn't make any noise.  his last race was off a one year layoff at GP and he finished 7th losing by 13 lengths. 

the 5 horse hey he's in great form he just beat 16K optional claiming foes at Tampa.  they were N1X conditioned as well.  so in his last two he has faced a bunch of 1/20 types.  Yippeee!  prior to that race he could not get by N2L 30K horses at Churchill. 

Now these are the horses facing Dialed In for a prep race for the KY Derby for one of the top betting choices.  Are you kidding me? 

Boys it was a complete disgrace.  I think Dialed In can run long no doubt in my mind about that.  But, is he fast enough and good enough to win a G1?  That I am not so sure about.  Maybe he is a Fly Down type horse tons of stamina but not fast enough. 

We are all so lucky as we will get another one of these joke races with Uncle Mo coming up.  My gut tells me the field in that one will be a bunch of nonsense as well.  the only way to send the message is to hit them with the handle.  don't play it in any fashion at all no doubles, pick 3's, or pick 4's. 

i forgot to include some thoughts about this stellar performer the 1 from this race.  the comments in his last two races:  "Showed little" and "Gave way late".  boy they should erect a statue of Dialed In outside of GP for being able to muscle his way past this 1 horse on Sunday. 

Just to add some more on "The Bounce Theory".

A lot of people think that when a horse runs huge in his first race off a layoff, the horse will bounce the next race.

Dialed In was off more than 2.5 months before the Holy Bull.   And don't forget that he was behind more than 15 lengths in that race at one point early.   He made a huge run and blew away Gourmet Dinner, Mucho Macho Man,  Sweet Ducky.    

Atlas, no I'm not making excuses for him but he does have some.  We'll see what happens in the Florida Derby.     He's only had 3 races in his life.  A little regression from his Holy Bull race was probably not that abnormal to be honest with you.   Can't overreact to one race. 

 

i have to disagree.  his second race was as you said after a comfy break so i look at that as a scenario where you do expect a big effort since he had a lot of time to recover.  sure enough he did run big and the tote board reflected that as we were all a bit surprised at how much action he got on the tote.

on Sunday this was 2nd off the shelf for a horse that has physically matured a lot in the last 4 months.  the trainer literally hand picked the date, distance, and conditions.  2nd off the layoff i think he should have moved forward and he got more ground to work with for a horse with an obvious deep closing style.  i see what your saying but i feel he had the entire thing put on a tee for him and he shoulda made progress. 

Florida Derby will be interesting.  I know I come across with a negative tone about many of these horses but I think it's prudent to be skeptical especially when I see things pretty clearly happen or not happen on the race track.  Believe me as a fan I would love to see some superstars really blow us away and impress us.  I think it would be great for the game.  Unfortunately we only have one superstar right now and she is across the pond:  Goldikova. 

Wow, kind of suprised about the passion/reaction here. It was just one race, first time two turns, slow pace and off a layoff. Again, the Derby is the goal.