Dialed In 30-1 Derby Futures Bet.

OK, I had some time last night and I was watching some replays of the horses in today's race.    

Probably the most impressive horse to me was #4 Cool Blue Red Hot.   He made strong moves in both of his races although he had a hot pace in front of him both times.    He's also got the highest speed figure of any of these horses so far so that might be another sign that this horse might be good.

The #7 Halo's Thunder definitely might have some excuses for his bad performance in his last race.    He was the 10 horse and at the start,  the horse next to him was forcing him out toward the grandstand.    Another excuse may be that turf course at Calder.    I don't watch many races at Calder but I could not believe how bad that turf course looked that day.   It's listed as "good" in his past performances but it looked bad to me.   He may not have liked that.      This horse drops way behind at the start of his races.    Gulfstream is favoring early speed in routes at this distance so I don't know about this guy.   The blinks might help and there's not a lot of early speed in here but he's got to stay closer today I think.   He's been racing against good competition too so if todays competition is a little weaker which it may be,  than his chances go up.     I think he'll hit the top 3 at least.

The #3 Soldat,  after watching that Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf,  you gotta think he's got a great shot today.   He got beat by a huge closer in that race but Soldat was still running strong at the end.   And he ran well on dirt in his first two races.    He's probably going to be chalk though.

The #1 Financial Empire was running wide for most of his race but he almost got caught at the wire.    Made a good move on the turn though.    He's a young horse and he cost 800k so a lot of room for improvement just like any of these.

The #2 Dialed In,  as I've said before in this thread ,  I think the supposed trouble he had in that race is being overrated.    The announcer completely overreacted to the start and what happened on the turn and guys like Roused fell for it.      I guess a lot of the horses he ran against in that race are doing well in Maiden Special Weights so his competition that day may have been better than I thought.    He'll be chalk too.

I don't like the #6  Lauburu at all.    Don't think he's going to get the distance.   He was lucky to hang on at 7 furlongs.     But like the #1 , he cost a lot and he's a very young horse that's only had one race.

The #8 Mas Trueno had a decent race at Philly.   Not that impressive to me but the big thing here is that his first two races were on turf and there was a big improvement the first time he ran on dirt.    Horse might be better than it looks.  He scares me a little bit and he's going to be overlooked for sure.

The #5 Beamer ran a good race last time but it was 20k maidens at Tampa.    He's been in pretty weak races both times.    Might be a decent horse but I'll take my chances that some of the others have been running against better competition.

So to sum it up,  I'm rolling with Cool Blue Red Hot,  Soldat,  and Halos Thunder.    Halos Thunder is probably going to be the best value to win so I'll play him to win and I'll do some gimmicks with him and the other two.    

If Cool Blue Red Hot goes off at a nice win price which I doubt ,  I'll be all over him.   He's probably going to be one of the frontrunners in this race and like I said he's got a big move.      

Hope that helps.   

Here's another ARTICLE I found about this race.   

It talks about what the other horses that raced against Dialed In have done since.   

Jeremy Plonk's Countdown to the Crown has a feature on this race today too.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=61&sub=100923787&page=4

There is one very good reason to bet against DI and for that reason, look at the thread right below this (by the same author).

I suppose there will be a bunch of scratches now due to the wet track and I watched all those replays for nothing.   

Hang in there Roused no biggy.....

I'll take the money I had involved on Dialed in and put it in over at Santa Anita today for a bombs away special, I've been waiting for this horse in the last race RACE 8 (1) Lily Amore 20/1 ML to run so I'm catching em here for some small action, I'm screaming for turf for this horse but I'll take it here what the hell maybe I can catch lightning in a bottle due to a horse waiting scratch.

Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

Wow. Soldat. Battled back at the rail to win by 7.

Just saw the race replay.  Jockey on Soldat knew he had a class horse, so he was undeterred when the 5/2 shot dueled with him.  Surprised the rest of the field was comparatively so bad that they could not pass the tired horse from the duel. 

ok, just catching up here.

scratches when bet heavily because of wet/slop.  not like the derby has ever been run in slop/mud with turds like saver and little birdie winning.  i am sure nick has his reasons but seems  a little odd.  if he were 25/1 and nick knew he had no shot i could see it.  heavily hyped and scratched because of a wet track for a budding superstar seems strange. 

i have never been to Gulfstream.  do they have those old pay phones inside of phone booths?  straight to the holy bull huh.  this guy might need to pop out of a phone booth with a big S on his chest but hey he might do it.  who am i to say he can't get it done? 

Dialed In had another bullet work today.   

Dialed In (3-Year-Old Colt)

Date: January 24, 2011
Track: PALM MEADOWS TRAINING CENTER
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 47:40 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/21 - See the day's workouts

Roused --------------->   

https://www.courier-journal.com/article/20110127/SPORTS08/301270057/1002/sports/Holy+Bull+Stakes++key+Kentucky+Derby+prep++draws+field+of+9

Andy Buyer in today's DRF:

Boys At Tosconova was supposed to make his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull, but trainer Rick Dutrow said he withdrew him because “he wasn’t showing his usual high energy.” In his absence, the most intriguing colt in the field is one who, on paper, looks badly overmatched. Dialed In has raced only once, winning a maiden race at Churchill Downs in slow time. But visually the performance was electrifying, as Dialed In broke last and knifed through the field in the stretch to win a 6 1/2-furlong race. “It was unbelievable,” said trainer Nick Zito. “I was over the moon.” Zito is not over the moon about running such a lightly raced colt in a stakes race, but he has limited options and has to get the stretch-runner on the Derby trail somewhere.

If Dialed In can unleash his big late kick against this company, his name will go on the already formidable list of potential 3-year-old stars.

If Dialed In can unleash his big late kick against this company, his name will go on the already formidable list of potential 3-year-old stars.

© 2011, The Washington Post

Wouldn't it better to bet some horses that have all but locked in there places already in the field? Instead of hoping Dialed In gets in?

they put the pick5 from Gulfstream for Sunday in the Saturday Daily Racing Form so now I have the pps.  I would have to say rousy's horse has a shot here.  i don't know if it is a real good shot but a shot.  i say that because of the field as everything is relative.  this is a helluva purse and graded so i am surprised this is all that showed up and i am aware of the dutrow scratch. 

rousy - btw the way i am not hating.  i have nothing against you personally and hope you win if the horse earns it.  i think keyboard muscles are pointless and childish.  you gotta realize that your credibility is shot when you throw out locks and sure things and then claim you didn't bet them not to mention your hyping and doing cartwheels and backflips touting horses.  anyways . . .

5 - i am willing to say less than a 5% chance he could win

8 - he is what he is and a major jump up in quality of the circuit and company

3 - he may have already shown us what he is

2 - similar to 3

1 - was that delta just his day?  i don't like how he just ran evenly down the lane in inglewood but it was a G1 and he got an 86 so i wouldn't completely toss him

4 - kinda grinding out improving figs here so it is possible but will he explode past horses and jump up into the 90's fig wise?  doesn't look like he is sitting on a rocket launcher but maybe who knows

6 - this horse intrigues me if anyone has more info let me know.  i want to monitor the action he shows on the tote as well.  got a 94 popping his cherry on the main aqueduct dirt from off the pace.  faced winners in a solid stake and the fig was soft but he passed horses and came home late on this strip.  maybe he wasn't cranked for this and it was merely a prep. 

7 - likely chalk.  obviously he chased a tougie twice in a row now and certainly should not fold up here with that stamina built into him.  is he just kinda one paced though?  doesn't seem to pass many horses and doesn't seem to have lighting speed either.  both of those efforts were 5 horse fields and he was 7/1 and 15/1 so who was in those races?

9 - two biggest things in his favor are that he has only run once and came from off the pace and that this is one turn.  he needs a big step forward so i am not gonna say whether it will happen or not.  no other horse that he beat has come back to win.  we'll see.

did anyone ever notice that the horse is running the wrong way ----------------------------------------------->

are we in Europe?