I've locked in two for the CLassic already in Dortmund 25/1EW and Destin 33/1 Win Only. Will probably add Nyquist before he runs next week around 12/1 EW. Those three should be it with Dortmund the biggest winner of the three if he can prevail.
Thoughts on Dortmund vs California Chrome please! Obviously Dortmund had a longer layoff then Chrome but I thought it was encouraging the way he came back a touch at the winner. I don't necessarily think Dortmund has to lead but he will be prominent. He was getting 5lbs from his rival so I'd have to think he needed the run a touch even if he had been training well. A bigger horse may just need more conditioning so there's every reason to be encouraged.
Mile
Limato is a very interesting contender here for Henry Candy. A brilliant sprinter I think he'd stay an easy mile on fast ground. At 10/1 he's not a bad pick but we've seen in the past that horses like that tend to be ridden held up and he'll need luck in running. He could go for the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint so there's some guessing involved but he WILL be there at the meeting and that has been confirmed.
Tepin did come over to the UK and won at the Royal Ascot meeting but that was a poor renewal of the Queen Anne. She only ran to 119 in my view and that is below Group 1 standard where the benchmark tend to be 124 for Champion Milers. Our older milers are nothing special but it's hard to know whether the 3yos The Gurkha and Galileo Gold will turn up at Santa Anita.
They clash in the Sussex Stakes this coming Wednesday and I'd imagine the program for both would be to be targeted at the Queen Elizabeth Mile at Ascot in October. Runners from that race to the Breeders Cup have a poor record so they are easy to pass here given their current prices of around 6/1.
Turf
We saw Highland Reel win the King George yesterday but he is nowhere near the very best of Europe's middle distance horses. Like the Mile division, we're experiencing subpar divisions amongst the older generations. That said, he is more then good enough to take in the Turf. At 8/1 he's not a bad bet though he could be asked to go to Australia and Japan where they have their own Group 1 races. He's won a Group 1 in Hong Kong, Europe, America so they may find the Cox Plate a tempting option in Australia before a tilt at the Japan Cup completing a clean sweep of all the major racing jurisdictions.
Harzand will go for the Arc and that will be that! The Grey Gatsby could be interesting at 16/1 as he's best over 10.5F in Europe. Doesn't quite stay a European 12f race well enough. He'll be held up though and will encounter traffic problems.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hi guys! May as well begin!
Classic
I've locked in two for the CLassic already in Dortmund 25/1EW and Destin 33/1 Win Only. Will probably add Nyquist before he runs next week around 12/1 EW. Those three should be it with Dortmund the biggest winner of the three if he can prevail.
Thoughts on Dortmund vs California Chrome please! Obviously Dortmund had a longer layoff then Chrome but I thought it was encouraging the way he came back a touch at the winner. I don't necessarily think Dortmund has to lead but he will be prominent. He was getting 5lbs from his rival so I'd have to think he needed the run a touch even if he had been training well. A bigger horse may just need more conditioning so there's every reason to be encouraged.
Mile
Limato is a very interesting contender here for Henry Candy. A brilliant sprinter I think he'd stay an easy mile on fast ground. At 10/1 he's not a bad pick but we've seen in the past that horses like that tend to be ridden held up and he'll need luck in running. He could go for the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint so there's some guessing involved but he WILL be there at the meeting and that has been confirmed.
Tepin did come over to the UK and won at the Royal Ascot meeting but that was a poor renewal of the Queen Anne. She only ran to 119 in my view and that is below Group 1 standard where the benchmark tend to be 124 for Champion Milers. Our older milers are nothing special but it's hard to know whether the 3yos The Gurkha and Galileo Gold will turn up at Santa Anita.
They clash in the Sussex Stakes this coming Wednesday and I'd imagine the program for both would be to be targeted at the Queen Elizabeth Mile at Ascot in October. Runners from that race to the Breeders Cup have a poor record so they are easy to pass here given their current prices of around 6/1.
Turf
We saw Highland Reel win the King George yesterday but he is nowhere near the very best of Europe's middle distance horses. Like the Mile division, we're experiencing subpar divisions amongst the older generations. That said, he is more then good enough to take in the Turf. At 8/1 he's not a bad bet though he could be asked to go to Australia and Japan where they have their own Group 1 races. He's won a Group 1 in Hong Kong, Europe, America so they may find the Cox Plate a tempting option in Australia before a tilt at the Japan Cup completing a clean sweep of all the major racing jurisdictions.
Harzand will go for the Arc and that will be that! The Grey Gatsby could be interesting at 16/1 as he's best over 10.5F in Europe. Doesn't quite stay a European 12f race well enough. He'll be held up though and will encounter traffic problems.
Frosted runs in the Whitney Handicap. Effinex will be a fair test for him.
Highland Reel has been spoken of as a possible for the Cox Plate. O'Brien has so many entries for the Melbourne Spring carnival it's hard to be confident. I doubt he will be aimed at Europe's top autumn races as he simply isn't good enough even if he did the King George.
I suspect they may want to try and win the BC Turf with Found again and try to create a global appeal for Highland Reel's stallion prospects by going for a Group 1 in Australia before Japan and Dubai. If he can do, it'll be an amazing achievement having won Group 1s in America, Europe, Hong Kong.
Frosted runs in the Whitney Handicap. Effinex will be a fair test for him.
Highland Reel has been spoken of as a possible for the Cox Plate. O'Brien has so many entries for the Melbourne Spring carnival it's hard to be confident. I doubt he will be aimed at Europe's top autumn races as he simply isn't good enough even if he did the King George.
I suspect they may want to try and win the BC Turf with Found again and try to create a global appeal for Highland Reel's stallion prospects by going for a Group 1 in Australia before Japan and Dubai. If he can do, it'll be an amazing achievement having won Group 1s in America, Europe, Hong Kong.
-Limato was beaten over 5F in the Nunthorpe but wasn't really a surprise. He's more of a 6-7F horse and ground went against him slightly. For Meccas Angel to be within a whisker of Dayjur's track record on softer ground is a huge compliment to her class. Right now, he could go for the SPrint Cup this week but my gut feeling is, his owner has made a pig's ear of his campaign. After the July Cup he should've gone Sprint Cup then Breeders but instead we were thrown a curveball when he was supplemented for the Nunthorpe.
That was against what his trainer Henry Candy wanted. Conflicting reports again now with news filtering through that if the ground is right, he could go for the Sprint cup after all after being ruled out. This is ground dependent. IF he goes for the Sprint Cup and win on fast ground then I make him a big player for the Breeders Cup as I'd expect him to be put away until Santa Anita.
-Ballydoyle plans: Seventh Heaven won the Yorkshire Oaks and it's said the big target is the Breeders Cup. I'd assume the Fillies and Mares Turf but I have my doubts. She'll go where the ground is quick but if there is an Indian summer through to autumn, I'd expect her to go to France for the Prix Vermeille before going to Ascot for the Champions Fillies and Mares race.
As it stands I don't think Ballydoyle has any big guns for the major turf races at Santa Anita.The juvenile turf races perhaps but the big Championship races, they lack ante-post propositions so they are a pass.
Of their options, I'd be keen on Found or Highland Reel for the Turf but if Postponed rocks up, it's game over imo. Solid 124 horse who I rate on par with Flintshire who I put at 122, a solid Group 1 yardstick in Europe on par with Highland Reel but not a top notcher. I'd doubt he has improved from his European performances at his age.
-In the Mile, Tepin has the older generation's number but any three yo has to be respected. Which horse that misses the Queen Elizabeth Mile at Ascot's Champions' Day gets my vote. Zelzal is the one I'm keeping an eye on.
Missed a lot! European news first...
-Limato was beaten over 5F in the Nunthorpe but wasn't really a surprise. He's more of a 6-7F horse and ground went against him slightly. For Meccas Angel to be within a whisker of Dayjur's track record on softer ground is a huge compliment to her class. Right now, he could go for the SPrint Cup this week but my gut feeling is, his owner has made a pig's ear of his campaign. After the July Cup he should've gone Sprint Cup then Breeders but instead we were thrown a curveball when he was supplemented for the Nunthorpe.
That was against what his trainer Henry Candy wanted. Conflicting reports again now with news filtering through that if the ground is right, he could go for the Sprint cup after all after being ruled out. This is ground dependent. IF he goes for the Sprint Cup and win on fast ground then I make him a big player for the Breeders Cup as I'd expect him to be put away until Santa Anita.
-Ballydoyle plans: Seventh Heaven won the Yorkshire Oaks and it's said the big target is the Breeders Cup. I'd assume the Fillies and Mares Turf but I have my doubts. She'll go where the ground is quick but if there is an Indian summer through to autumn, I'd expect her to go to France for the Prix Vermeille before going to Ascot for the Champions Fillies and Mares race.
As it stands I don't think Ballydoyle has any big guns for the major turf races at Santa Anita.The juvenile turf races perhaps but the big Championship races, they lack ante-post propositions so they are a pass.
Of their options, I'd be keen on Found or Highland Reel for the Turf but if Postponed rocks up, it's game over imo. Solid 124 horse who I rate on par with Flintshire who I put at 122, a solid Group 1 yardstick in Europe on par with Highland Reel but not a top notcher. I'd doubt he has improved from his European performances at his age.
-In the Mile, Tepin has the older generation's number but any three yo has to be respected. Which horse that misses the Queen Elizabeth Mile at Ascot's Champions' Day gets my vote. Zelzal is the one I'm keeping an eye on.
The Classic has seen some significant market moves. California Chrome is a deserving favourite after his PAcific performance. I still think Dortmund has scope but have to rate a huge doubt given baffert has Arrogate!!!
Arrogate blew me away. ticked all boxes on sectionals and final time. RPR gave him a rating of 131 and with the weight allowance, that makes him the one to beat if he can back it up. Looks the one to beat of all the Classic generation contenders.
The market has it spot on so there's no plays there for me. Destin and Dortmund were my two darts and both unlikely to be winning the Classic. Both probably won't turn up!
Dirt Mile could shape up to be a classic! if Dortmund drops down, i'd back him but he'll likely be a hot favourite so not much value to be had there.
Very taken by AP Indian's win on Saturday. I've backed him at 7/1 EW. Think he's a huge price. Looks progressive and very much happy with that bet.
The Classic has seen some significant market moves. California Chrome is a deserving favourite after his PAcific performance. I still think Dortmund has scope but have to rate a huge doubt given baffert has Arrogate!!!
Arrogate blew me away. ticked all boxes on sectionals and final time. RPR gave him a rating of 131 and with the weight allowance, that makes him the one to beat if he can back it up. Looks the one to beat of all the Classic generation contenders.
The market has it spot on so there's no plays there for me. Destin and Dortmund were my two darts and both unlikely to be winning the Classic. Both probably won't turn up!
Dirt Mile could shape up to be a classic! if Dortmund drops down, i'd back him but he'll likely be a hot favourite so not much value to be had there.
Very taken by AP Indian's win on Saturday. I've backed him at 7/1 EW. Think he's a huge price. Looks progressive and very much happy with that bet.
Huge Destin fan. They need to start over. Nonetheless, I like your bet. Pletcher has to be sick. It's just not his time right now. Baffert was due to win that after last year. I think Dortmund is garbage. Fools Gold. Arrogate I'm a huge fan of as well but I have to think he's due to bounce major. As I noted previously, watch out for a East Coast win on the West Coast. Thinking Mucho Macho Man. That's how it always works. People are saying there's no way Chrome can lose at Santa Anita and Beholder as well. Another major sentiment being bred is that no 3yr.old has a chance or now, if one does it's Arrogate. I like Exaggerator big time in there. He's ultra experienced and he has a major race-horse move. Getting back to Destin, he's got carrying speed just as much at every interval as the best. Whether he gets it done is another question. I bet Frosted loses this week and wins in California. I hate that horse. He disappointed me just about every race last year. My top in the Derby. I had a cold 100$ exacta Keen Ice to Frosted at the Spa. I bet no Pharoah every race till the Classic last year. It's OK the public could win his negative money. Frosted just stinks. He's horrible. I don't like Effinex this week. I'm expecting a new shooter to prevail. Effinex had his fun in the sun completing that bomb exacta. Melatonin interests me the most as well. As we just witnessed in back to back weeks, any horse with elite speed can win and be a superior animal that day. California Chrome is beatable. Think Bayern twice and Shared Belief (R.I.P.). Either way you have to bet some sort of unusual expectancy because that's who your competition is. All these speed figures are such nonsense and crap. These so called experts with their head in the form are losers. If you can't retain re-watch a race or if you don't know how to read past performances you're an idiot. I'm not a Baffert fan either but when I can recognize he has horse I won't hesitate to back him especially, his second entries. He's one of the best with them. Workouts are overrated as well to me. Let's hope every player makes it to the Classic unlike last year. If Frosted losses this week especially out of the money, his Classic odds go up and with a full field, I'll bet back him Trump like, HUGE!!!
Huge Destin fan. They need to start over. Nonetheless, I like your bet. Pletcher has to be sick. It's just not his time right now. Baffert was due to win that after last year. I think Dortmund is garbage. Fools Gold. Arrogate I'm a huge fan of as well but I have to think he's due to bounce major. As I noted previously, watch out for a East Coast win on the West Coast. Thinking Mucho Macho Man. That's how it always works. People are saying there's no way Chrome can lose at Santa Anita and Beholder as well. Another major sentiment being bred is that no 3yr.old has a chance or now, if one does it's Arrogate. I like Exaggerator big time in there. He's ultra experienced and he has a major race-horse move. Getting back to Destin, he's got carrying speed just as much at every interval as the best. Whether he gets it done is another question. I bet Frosted loses this week and wins in California. I hate that horse. He disappointed me just about every race last year. My top in the Derby. I had a cold 100$ exacta Keen Ice to Frosted at the Spa. I bet no Pharoah every race till the Classic last year. It's OK the public could win his negative money. Frosted just stinks. He's horrible. I don't like Effinex this week. I'm expecting a new shooter to prevail. Effinex had his fun in the sun completing that bomb exacta. Melatonin interests me the most as well. As we just witnessed in back to back weeks, any horse with elite speed can win and be a superior animal that day. California Chrome is beatable. Think Bayern twice and Shared Belief (R.I.P.). Either way you have to bet some sort of unusual expectancy because that's who your competition is. All these speed figures are such nonsense and crap. These so called experts with their head in the form are losers. If you can't retain re-watch a race or if you don't know how to read past performances you're an idiot. I'm not a Baffert fan either but when I can recognize he has horse I won't hesitate to back him especially, his second entries. He's one of the best with them. Workouts are overrated as well to me. Let's hope every player makes it to the Classic unlike last year. If Frosted losses this week especially out of the money, his Classic odds go up and with a full field, I'll bet back him Trump like, HUGE!!!
I'm locked in on Destin and Dortmund. I took a chance at their prices, Destin 33s before Kentucky Derby and Dortmund not long after at 25s. I've sat and watched all summer but one thing's for sure, there'll be a pace war up front.
I thought they went quick in the Travers and incredibly Arrogate was still able to gallop strongly to the line. Destin, for me was exposed. He had his ideal position tracking the pace but couldn't go with the front three when they began to race to the home straight. Just no excuse there for him and he's a write off in my view.
Have to disagree on Exaggerator. All the evidence says he is indeed ground dependent. Even if you look at his wins and concur he might need a strong early pace, he got that here too. As you say, the major consensus appears to be the Classic generation aren't that good and that appears to be the case with an improver Arrogate now heading the division decisively beating a field that seems to take it in turns in beating each other. Only Nyquist wasn't there.
Dortmund my other dart I think needs to be in front but you're right, he is exposed over 10F and at this level as it stands. I've read how he's sweated up and got a little bit coltish with someone even mentioning Baffert overdosing him on Thyroxine! lol.. Wasn't able to watch the parade but if true, there might still be some scope there. But realistically, I can't see Baffert sending Dortmund to the Classic in light of Arrogate's performance unless American Freedom steps down.
Mention of Shared Belief got me wondering what might've been :( Super horse and I rate him better then Chrome. Frosted I think we all know needs a long lay off between his races. He had a wind op early in his 3yo year and those horses often are best caught fresh. If I were Godolphin, I'd put him away until the big race.
Nice thoughts btw!
I'm locked in on Destin and Dortmund. I took a chance at their prices, Destin 33s before Kentucky Derby and Dortmund not long after at 25s. I've sat and watched all summer but one thing's for sure, there'll be a pace war up front.
I thought they went quick in the Travers and incredibly Arrogate was still able to gallop strongly to the line. Destin, for me was exposed. He had his ideal position tracking the pace but couldn't go with the front three when they began to race to the home straight. Just no excuse there for him and he's a write off in my view.
Have to disagree on Exaggerator. All the evidence says he is indeed ground dependent. Even if you look at his wins and concur he might need a strong early pace, he got that here too. As you say, the major consensus appears to be the Classic generation aren't that good and that appears to be the case with an improver Arrogate now heading the division decisively beating a field that seems to take it in turns in beating each other. Only Nyquist wasn't there.
Dortmund my other dart I think needs to be in front but you're right, he is exposed over 10F and at this level as it stands. I've read how he's sweated up and got a little bit coltish with someone even mentioning Baffert overdosing him on Thyroxine! lol.. Wasn't able to watch the parade but if true, there might still be some scope there. But realistically, I can't see Baffert sending Dortmund to the Classic in light of Arrogate's performance unless American Freedom steps down.
Mention of Shared Belief got me wondering what might've been :( Super horse and I rate him better then Chrome. Frosted I think we all know needs a long lay off between his races. He had a wind op early in his 3yo year and those horses often are best caught fresh. If I were Godolphin, I'd put him away until the big race.
Check out my post comment in another blog on here after the Travers. Destin did have a major excuse. He got used up and mangled by multi-horses in the form of being squeezed checked backed into cut off and slammed out of the gate in that first 1/16. It seemed that all of that washed him out. I know Gift Box nailed him quite a few times. And he tried jumping in the air into that first turn on a few occasions. Then he passes four colts racing into that first turn and on the back stretch runs as if he was coming home and J. Castellano who is the best dirt jockey in America goes to the whip into that final turn. He just didn't have horse that day for whatever reason. The colt hasn't had a normal training/race routine all year. I would not right him off. And I hope he at least gets into that gate for you come Classic time. Anything can happen. He runs in the Classic he should be 30-45•1. He could turn around and easily carry the same catch me if you can speed especially still being a colt. He carried his speed magnificently for 1 1/2 on Big Sandy. Watch him break intently and what proceeds and thereafter in the Travers. Nobody was going to beat Arrogate Saturday and that's the bottom line. B. Baffert too doesn't sound off or his body language doesn't exude the ultimate confidence that Arrogate's a world beater as some of his previous charges. I'm a huge Unbridled Song (R. I. P.) fan too. So I do believe he'll bounce next time out. Exaggerator really didn't get the pace setup. Their quite wasn't a pace dual. Lone speed on the lead is dangerous speed when it could be carried. The pace wasn't contested hotly. But he may be a bit tired and, may be a monster on the turf especially with his move. The horse does have speed as well. You don't rate off of a speedster and stay so close going 7 panels as he did. I just really think last year's crop was so weak. They beat nobody they don't even win and Pharoah beat nothing but a bunch of restricted colts, horses regressing and one-dimensional styles. The horse won one bad open company race. So I don't think Dortmund is anything more than an over hyped entry as was Frosted till he finally flashed potential for the first time mid-year. Keep in mind for as great as Frosted supposedly is, his racing record is atrocious for the existing sentiment he holds as supposedly being great. Real horse racing competition is what we're witnessing these 3 year-olds doing. This crop is tough as nails. Creator Nyquist Exaggerator Governor Malibu Destin Unified Arrogate and even Laoban and etc.'s. At least that's my take. Dortmund just continually seems outclassed in every significant race. I'm talking about Grade 1. He might belong in the race but he doesn't seal any deals and never has. Gun Runner too thus far. The amazing thing last week was, how did they know to mark Destin 10•1 Gift Box 12•1 then Connect gets let go at 12•1, Gift Box 21•1 and even Arrogate at 10-or-12•1. I just felt something was wrong with some of these entries. Especially Gun Runner and Creator both being written at 15-&-17•1. I knew with Arrogate and Gift Box at those prices one would need to fire and that one will. What a fine sensitive line that was. At 4•1 I did not like Connect but at 12•1 gosh. I felt something was bad about Destin too. Destin Gun Runner and Creator all three had the same running to betting lines and that sucked up all the money and interest along with Exaggerator. American Freedom seemed to be an overlay. Governor Malibu even money. Arrogate where he should of been. Gift Box Connect overlays. Laoban bounce candidate priced appropriately. Gun Runner and Creator underlays. Only about 4 horses changed positions during the course of the race. I don't think there was anything special about Gun Runner just the fact that he was a beneficiary of being allowed to hang there and not be passed up. There's still plenty of racing. You have the older division horses. Woodward Jockey Gold Cup Awesome Again. And Melatonin. I wouldn't write Win the Space off either. If Giacamo can win and 50-to-75$ horses in the Derby, so can any entry in a contentious field. Either way Good Luck! And I prefer and love grass racing. I'm going to review your lawn charges and watch them.
Thanks!
Check out my post comment in another blog on here after the Travers. Destin did have a major excuse. He got used up and mangled by multi-horses in the form of being squeezed checked backed into cut off and slammed out of the gate in that first 1/16. It seemed that all of that washed him out. I know Gift Box nailed him quite a few times. And he tried jumping in the air into that first turn on a few occasions. Then he passes four colts racing into that first turn and on the back stretch runs as if he was coming home and J. Castellano who is the best dirt jockey in America goes to the whip into that final turn. He just didn't have horse that day for whatever reason. The colt hasn't had a normal training/race routine all year. I would not right him off. And I hope he at least gets into that gate for you come Classic time. Anything can happen. He runs in the Classic he should be 30-45•1. He could turn around and easily carry the same catch me if you can speed especially still being a colt. He carried his speed magnificently for 1 1/2 on Big Sandy. Watch him break intently and what proceeds and thereafter in the Travers. Nobody was going to beat Arrogate Saturday and that's the bottom line. B. Baffert too doesn't sound off or his body language doesn't exude the ultimate confidence that Arrogate's a world beater as some of his previous charges. I'm a huge Unbridled Song (R. I. P.) fan too. So I do believe he'll bounce next time out. Exaggerator really didn't get the pace setup. Their quite wasn't a pace dual. Lone speed on the lead is dangerous speed when it could be carried. The pace wasn't contested hotly. But he may be a bit tired and, may be a monster on the turf especially with his move. The horse does have speed as well. You don't rate off of a speedster and stay so close going 7 panels as he did. I just really think last year's crop was so weak. They beat nobody they don't even win and Pharoah beat nothing but a bunch of restricted colts, horses regressing and one-dimensional styles. The horse won one bad open company race. So I don't think Dortmund is anything more than an over hyped entry as was Frosted till he finally flashed potential for the first time mid-year. Keep in mind for as great as Frosted supposedly is, his racing record is atrocious for the existing sentiment he holds as supposedly being great. Real horse racing competition is what we're witnessing these 3 year-olds doing. This crop is tough as nails. Creator Nyquist Exaggerator Governor Malibu Destin Unified Arrogate and even Laoban and etc.'s. At least that's my take. Dortmund just continually seems outclassed in every significant race. I'm talking about Grade 1. He might belong in the race but he doesn't seal any deals and never has. Gun Runner too thus far. The amazing thing last week was, how did they know to mark Destin 10•1 Gift Box 12•1 then Connect gets let go at 12•1, Gift Box 21•1 and even Arrogate at 10-or-12•1. I just felt something was wrong with some of these entries. Especially Gun Runner and Creator both being written at 15-&-17•1. I knew with Arrogate and Gift Box at those prices one would need to fire and that one will. What a fine sensitive line that was. At 4•1 I did not like Connect but at 12•1 gosh. I felt something was bad about Destin too. Destin Gun Runner and Creator all three had the same running to betting lines and that sucked up all the money and interest along with Exaggerator. American Freedom seemed to be an overlay. Governor Malibu even money. Arrogate where he should of been. Gift Box Connect overlays. Laoban bounce candidate priced appropriately. Gun Runner and Creator underlays. Only about 4 horses changed positions during the course of the race. I don't think there was anything special about Gun Runner just the fact that he was a beneficiary of being allowed to hang there and not be passed up. There's still plenty of racing. You have the older division horses. Woodward Jockey Gold Cup Awesome Again. And Melatonin. I wouldn't write Win the Space off either. If Giacamo can win and 50-to-75$ horses in the Derby, so can any entry in a contentious field. Either way Good Luck! And I prefer and love grass racing. I'm going to review your lawn charges and watch them.
Didn't proof read or edit my comments. Write and there instead of right and their. I'm somewhat literate. But more importantly yes, Shared Belief (R. I. P.) was amazing as was Bayern and I wasn't a Bayern fan or backer. That was such a good crop too with Wicked Strong and Tonalist. Another contentious bunch who beat up on each other late so yes, I do believe Chrome is not this Pegasus of a race-horse or incomparable. Shared Belief was scintillating! Who suffered legitimate bad racing luck in a few different variety of ways. California Chrome on Shared Belief's bad days wasn't going to pass him.
Didn't proof read or edit my comments. Write and there instead of right and their. I'm somewhat literate. But more importantly yes, Shared Belief (R. I. P.) was amazing as was Bayern and I wasn't a Bayern fan or backer. That was such a good crop too with Wicked Strong and Tonalist. Another contentious bunch who beat up on each other late so yes, I do believe Chrome is not this Pegasus of a race-horse or incomparable. Shared Belief was scintillating! Who suffered legitimate bad racing luck in a few different variety of ways. California Chrome on Shared Belief's bad days wasn't going to pass him.
Nice angles there with the market movers and drifters. Not that keen on dirt but do find the top Graded races fascinating. Love the turf. It's more humane for the horses. Dirt is tough and they often need Bute and Lasix to counteract the effects of dirt racing. Throw in the practices of bulking up yearlings and it's not a perfect surface for the horses.
Destin perhaps needs to mature more but the excuses for defeats are rather piling up at the moment. If he turns up, then great but I don't think Pletcher will overface him this year with next year in mind. You're right in that Arrogate wasn't obviously a stable star but there's no denying he looks progressive. He's obviously a "bounce" candidate but I thought his run was solid it's hard to pick holes in it. Time will tell!
Do have some ante-post (futures) bets coming up with the focus on the Arc de Triomphe and Champions Day as well as next year's Guineas! Harzand is the one I've gone for at 10s and he's in plenty of doubles (parlays) too so he's worth a lot if he can do. Has to get there first but hopeful of a decent showing. That race will be the first Sunday of October. I also have Minding at 25/1 as insurance but I don't think she lines up.
Almanzor is my Champions Stakes play at 20/1. Now 12s. He goes for the Irish Champion on 10th September and may clash with Harzand and Minding. One of the races of the season if all line up. Hoping for a very good run. He's fit, nice turn of foot but lacks context in his form as does HArzand and Minding. This race will sort the pecking order of each formlines. If he can go close or even win it, I'd hope connections will stick with the plan and head to Ascot on October 15th rather then be tempted by a tilt at the Arc.
Ribchester I've backed at 5/1 for the Champions Mile. The Gurkha, winner of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes likely is out having undergone surgery for "displaced colon"! that makes Ribchester the one to beat and he should have Galileo Gold's number. Older generation nothing to get excited about as they've been poor. Zelzal is the one I fear but same owners as Galileo Gold. He runs in the Prix du Moulin on 10th September so hopefully he runs well and his connections will tell us more! Would've liked to have backed him for Breeders Cup Mile but alas, not quoted. If connections hint at a Champions Mile tilt, I will be forced to add him as a saver. But if connections hint at the Breeders Cup, I'll have to hope the bookies introduce to the market at a minimum 10/1.
Next season's 2000 Guineas, Churchill 12/1, Senator 40/1, 200.0 are the two darts whilst in the 1000 Guineas, Roly Poly 33/1 (could turn up at Santa Anita), Fair Eva 14/1 and Rhododendron 40.0, 25/1 are my three darts. Those are our classic races over a mile. Long way off but love speculating on contenders at biggish prices!
Pleasure changing views
Nice angles there with the market movers and drifters. Not that keen on dirt but do find the top Graded races fascinating. Love the turf. It's more humane for the horses. Dirt is tough and they often need Bute and Lasix to counteract the effects of dirt racing. Throw in the practices of bulking up yearlings and it's not a perfect surface for the horses.
Destin perhaps needs to mature more but the excuses for defeats are rather piling up at the moment. If he turns up, then great but I don't think Pletcher will overface him this year with next year in mind. You're right in that Arrogate wasn't obviously a stable star but there's no denying he looks progressive. He's obviously a "bounce" candidate but I thought his run was solid it's hard to pick holes in it. Time will tell!
Do have some ante-post (futures) bets coming up with the focus on the Arc de Triomphe and Champions Day as well as next year's Guineas! Harzand is the one I've gone for at 10s and he's in plenty of doubles (parlays) too so he's worth a lot if he can do. Has to get there first but hopeful of a decent showing. That race will be the first Sunday of October. I also have Minding at 25/1 as insurance but I don't think she lines up.
Almanzor is my Champions Stakes play at 20/1. Now 12s. He goes for the Irish Champion on 10th September and may clash with Harzand and Minding. One of the races of the season if all line up. Hoping for a very good run. He's fit, nice turn of foot but lacks context in his form as does HArzand and Minding. This race will sort the pecking order of each formlines. If he can go close or even win it, I'd hope connections will stick with the plan and head to Ascot on October 15th rather then be tempted by a tilt at the Arc.
Ribchester I've backed at 5/1 for the Champions Mile. The Gurkha, winner of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes likely is out having undergone surgery for "displaced colon"! that makes Ribchester the one to beat and he should have Galileo Gold's number. Older generation nothing to get excited about as they've been poor. Zelzal is the one I fear but same owners as Galileo Gold. He runs in the Prix du Moulin on 10th September so hopefully he runs well and his connections will tell us more! Would've liked to have backed him for Breeders Cup Mile but alas, not quoted. If connections hint at a Champions Mile tilt, I will be forced to add him as a saver. But if connections hint at the Breeders Cup, I'll have to hope the bookies introduce to the market at a minimum 10/1.
Next season's 2000 Guineas, Churchill 12/1, Senator 40/1, 200.0 are the two darts whilst in the 1000 Guineas, Roly Poly 33/1 (could turn up at Santa Anita), Fair Eva 14/1 and Rhododendron 40.0, 25/1 are my three darts. Those are our classic races over a mile. Long way off but love speculating on contenders at biggish prices!
Found is now the hot favourite for the BC Turf. Teak tough, she ran her normal race and that was enough to take a below par renewal. I just wonder if the decline in the breed is impacting the overall standard required to win a European Group 1. Make no mistakes, this has been a shocking year for European racing.
The Classic generation has been poor whilst this crop of juveniles isn't inspiring anyone bar the potential of French colt Akihoko. In the Championship division, we have no clear sprint champion which isn't unusual given speed isn't in our DNA the same way it is in Australia and America. The miling division isn't great either and when Tepin can win a Queen Anne running to 120, that says it all. Ribchester will likely bid to be the Champion Miler in two weeks and he can probably do it but he has beaten in the Guineas. Another 120+ horse, he is another underwhelming champion.
Over 10F, Almanzor is the clear leader on his Irish Champion Stakes win and has the chance to prove it once again in two weeks on Champions Day. Over 12F, it looks as if Found is the top horse by default winning Europe's most prestigious 12F race needing only to run to 122+.
The point here is I'm not too keen on our chances at the Breeders Cup. In the BC Turf, Found and Highland Reel could both turn up for Aidan O'Brien and they look solid for sure and our best hope for a European win. They wouldn't tempt me into backing them as they'll likely start short prices.
Limato is probably our best chance in the BC Mile as he is a brilliant horse but hasn't won over a mile. The sharp turns and fast ground will suit him but if he is ridden to get the trip, he could encounter traffic problems.
Beyond that, every turf race looks muddled at this stage. I would be keen on Seventh Heaven for the Fillies and Mares Turf but she is pencilled in for Ascot in 2 weeks. However she wants fast ground and she is tempting at 8/1 currently.
Spainsburg and Intricately both have strong chances in the Juvenile Fillies turf. they aren't special but solid 110 rated fillies who should give backers a run for their money.
Found is now the hot favourite for the BC Turf. Teak tough, she ran her normal race and that was enough to take a below par renewal. I just wonder if the decline in the breed is impacting the overall standard required to win a European Group 1. Make no mistakes, this has been a shocking year for European racing.
The Classic generation has been poor whilst this crop of juveniles isn't inspiring anyone bar the potential of French colt Akihoko. In the Championship division, we have no clear sprint champion which isn't unusual given speed isn't in our DNA the same way it is in Australia and America. The miling division isn't great either and when Tepin can win a Queen Anne running to 120, that says it all. Ribchester will likely bid to be the Champion Miler in two weeks and he can probably do it but he has beaten in the Guineas. Another 120+ horse, he is another underwhelming champion.
Over 10F, Almanzor is the clear leader on his Irish Champion Stakes win and has the chance to prove it once again in two weeks on Champions Day. Over 12F, it looks as if Found is the top horse by default winning Europe's most prestigious 12F race needing only to run to 122+.
The point here is I'm not too keen on our chances at the Breeders Cup. In the BC Turf, Found and Highland Reel could both turn up for Aidan O'Brien and they look solid for sure and our best hope for a European win. They wouldn't tempt me into backing them as they'll likely start short prices.
Limato is probably our best chance in the BC Mile as he is a brilliant horse but hasn't won over a mile. The sharp turns and fast ground will suit him but if he is ridden to get the trip, he could encounter traffic problems.
Beyond that, every turf race looks muddled at this stage. I would be keen on Seventh Heaven for the Fillies and Mares Turf but she is pencilled in for Ascot in 2 weeks. However she wants fast ground and she is tempting at 8/1 currently.
Spainsburg and Intricately both have strong chances in the Juvenile Fillies turf. they aren't special but solid 110 rated fillies who should give backers a run for their money.
It looks to me California Chrome has the BC Classic in the bag! Travels, versatile regards tactically, in rude health, I cannot see him beaten. I invested in Dortmund at 25s a few months ago but he has been exposed as nowhere near Chrome's class. Arrogate looks a dark horse but he has to back it up.
It looks like a quiet BC meeting for me. No ante-post bets with serious win aspirations and short prices on the day isn't my style. GL to all playing this great meeting!
It looks to me California Chrome has the BC Classic in the bag! Travels, versatile regards tactically, in rude health, I cannot see him beaten. I invested in Dortmund at 25s a few months ago but he has been exposed as nowhere near Chrome's class. Arrogate looks a dark horse but he has to back it up.
It looks like a quiet BC meeting for me. No ante-post bets with serious win aspirations and short prices on the day isn't my style. GL to all playing this great meeting!
Thanks for posting this Giant.I don't like Found or Flintshire in the turf. Question, who would be your upset candidate. Ironicus ?
I expect Europe to dominate this even back at Santa Anita. Not a fan of this year's crop of horses. Postponed and Found unlikely to turn up and that leaves Highland Reel. Loves fast ground, tactically suited to AMerican racing as he like to make the pace. I backed Ironicus last time out and he only got going too late vs Miss Temple City. I would think the Mile is more likely his target??
Quote Originally Posted by Roused:
Thanks for posting this Giant.I don't like Found or Flintshire in the turf. Question, who would be your upset candidate. Ironicus ?
I expect Europe to dominate this even back at Santa Anita. Not a fan of this year's crop of horses. Postponed and Found unlikely to turn up and that leaves Highland Reel. Loves fast ground, tactically suited to AMerican racing as he like to make the pace. I backed Ironicus last time out and he only got going too late vs Miss Temple City. I would think the Mile is more likely his target??
Dirt Mile/Classic: Dortmund confirmed. No news on Frosted just yet. Would like confirmation he goes to the Classic as that means I get a free bet on him if I back him EW! Off a long layoff, he has no excuses and it's whether he's good enough. this will be the first time he races against very good opposition off a long layoff and we shall see how he goes.
Turf: Found came second on Champions Day and whilst her constitution is admirable, surely the BC is one race too many? Last season she took in the Irish Champion, Arc, Champions Stakes before winning the BC. If she turns up, she's the one to beat for sure. Highland Reel confirmed for this by O'Brien and should run well.
Mile: Limato looks our top hope and his trainer has just confirmed this. He has a great chance of posting a performance of 122 to take this. Problem is he's never won over this and will need luck in running if his jockey holds him up to "get the trip".
Fillies and Mares Turf: So Mi Dar misses this race as confirmed by John Gosden. That leaves Seventh Heaven as our top hope. Should run well but much hinges on tactics. If Ryan Moore has one of his dozy hold up rides, he's run into traffic problems! Good horse but suspicion she may find 10F on this sharp track a touch too much of a speed test.
Some news:
Dirt Mile/Classic: Dortmund confirmed. No news on Frosted just yet. Would like confirmation he goes to the Classic as that means I get a free bet on him if I back him EW! Off a long layoff, he has no excuses and it's whether he's good enough. this will be the first time he races against very good opposition off a long layoff and we shall see how he goes.
Turf: Found came second on Champions Day and whilst her constitution is admirable, surely the BC is one race too many? Last season she took in the Irish Champion, Arc, Champions Stakes before winning the BC. If she turns up, she's the one to beat for sure. Highland Reel confirmed for this by O'Brien and should run well.
Mile: Limato looks our top hope and his trainer has just confirmed this. He has a great chance of posting a performance of 122 to take this. Problem is he's never won over this and will need luck in running if his jockey holds him up to "get the trip".
Fillies and Mares Turf: So Mi Dar misses this race as confirmed by John Gosden. That leaves Seventh Heaven as our top hope. Should run well but much hinges on tactics. If Ryan Moore has one of his dozy hold up rides, he's run into traffic problems! Good horse but suspicion she may find 10F on this sharp track a touch too much of a speed test.
Can you please help me out in located any rating numbers that might be available for the contenders on BC day ?
Looking for this kind of rating that u mentioned ....
RPR gave him a rating of 131 and with the weight allowance, that makes
him the one to beat if he can back it up. Looks the one to beat of all
the Classic generation contenders.
The RPR ? ...Thanks for any help ...Foreign ratings would be fine if no Amercian rating as of yet ... Thanks !!!
Morn Giant ,
Can you please help me out in located any rating numbers that might be available for the contenders on BC day ?
Looking for this kind of rating that u mentioned ....
RPR gave him a rating of 131 and with the weight allowance, that makes
him the one to beat if he can back it up. Looks the one to beat of all
the Classic generation contenders.
The RPR ? ...Thanks for any help ...Foreign ratings would be fine if no Amercian rating as of yet ... Thanks !!!
A decision has yet to be taken on whether the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe heroine will run at Santa Anita next month, but the master of Ballydoyle has raised the intriguing possibility of a clash with the likes of California Chrome in the 10-furlong Classic on dirt.
Found was last seen losing little in defeat behind Jean-Claude Rouget's Almanzor in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, a run which came just 13 days after her victory at Chantilly.
She followed a similar path 12 months ago, and lowered the colours of Derby hero Golden Horn in the Turf at Keeneland.
O'Brien told At The Races: "I'm not sure she'll be entered in the Filly & Mare, she might be entered in the Turf and she might be entered in the Classic. The lads will decide when the dust settles, see how she is and how everything is, I think.
"She's a great mare, she travels strongly and she stays well. She is gutsy and determined and she's brave.
"Obviously it (Classic) is totally into the unknown, but the lads will talk about that and see what they want to do. But she is a great mare, really.
"She might retire after this year anyway, so it's getting to the end of her runs, but we'll see how she is during the week, she seems to be in good form."
Sky Bet gave Found a 14/1 quote for the Classic behind 5/6 favourite California Chrome while she is 3/1 for the Turf.
Truly bold from Coolmore!!!
A decision has yet to be taken on whether the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe heroine will run at Santa Anita next month, but the master of Ballydoyle has raised the intriguing possibility of a clash with the likes of California Chrome in the 10-furlong Classic on dirt.
Found was last seen losing little in defeat behind Jean-Claude Rouget's Almanzor in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, a run which came just 13 days after her victory at Chantilly.
She followed a similar path 12 months ago, and lowered the colours of Derby hero Golden Horn in the Turf at Keeneland.
O'Brien told At The Races: "I'm not sure she'll be entered in the Filly & Mare, she might be entered in the Turf and she might be entered in the Classic. The lads will decide when the dust settles, see how she is and how everything is, I think.
"She's a great mare, she travels strongly and she stays well. She is gutsy and determined and she's brave.
"Obviously it (Classic) is totally into the unknown, but the lads will talk about that and see what they want to do. But she is a great mare, really.
"She might retire after this year anyway, so it's getting to the end of her runs, but we'll see how she is during the week, she seems to be in good form."
Sky Bet gave Found a 14/1 quote for the Classic behind 5/6 favourite California Chrome while she is 3/1 for the Turf.
Upside, the RPR is the Racing Post Ratings. Racingpost.com Like all ratings it is subjective! I normally have my own ratings for the top turf races but the RPR is a good guide.
Upside, the RPR is the Racing Post Ratings. Racingpost.com Like all ratings it is subjective! I normally have my own ratings for the top turf races but the RPR is a good guide.
Roused, had a superb weekend the previous week in Canada. Erupt is a big player for the Turf along with Highland Reel. As mentioned above, Found going for the Classic is something her owners have done before. Bolshy call but actually makes sense. She has an iron constitution and goes on all ground. Dirt is an unknown but couldn't rule her out.
Frosted taken out the betting with several bookies for Dirt Mile so looks like Classic is the target
Roused, had a superb weekend the previous week in Canada. Erupt is a big player for the Turf along with Highland Reel. As mentioned above, Found going for the Classic is something her owners have done before. Bolshy call but actually makes sense. She has an iron constitution and goes on all ground. Dirt is an unknown but couldn't rule her out.
Frosted taken out the betting with several bookies for Dirt Mile so looks like Classic is the target
Upside, the RPR is the Racing Post Ratings. Racingpost.com Like all ratings it is subjective! I normally have my own ratings for the top turf races but the RPR is a good guide.
Can you please help me out if possible with any rating you can send me in regards to the contenders on BC days ??? Yours would be fine ... I will check racingpost.com as well ... Thank u bro !
Quote Originally Posted by giant_causeway:
Upside, the RPR is the Racing Post Ratings. Racingpost.com Like all ratings it is subjective! I normally have my own ratings for the top turf races but the RPR is a good guide.
Can you please help me out if possible with any rating you can send me in regards to the contenders on BC days ??? Yours would be fine ... I will check racingpost.com as well ... Thank u bro !
Truly bold from Coolmore!!!
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