sharp post!
. however, and i thought about this before too, what if i get lucky and win $30 k that week, and if he doesn't pay me, then what? 
and i hate his ass... today is one of those super hot days i'm having, supposed to be a 7-1 day, yet he did not pick up his freaking phone
. so what can i do? yeah, go drink some and knock myself out, i guess. might not be much money there, but wrote down for $300 each game already... 
Hi,
I only posted twice or so in here when Vanzack asked how bookie lines are made. Back then, a friend of mine told me to look in here. I generally don't like boards very much because there is no valuable information for me, but topics like this always interest me. In fact, I am writing a book right now about the life as a professional gambler and the hilarious thoughts of people in "betting boards" will be a big part of it... it's the expectations of people, defined by the media/internet, that make them fail.
So, to answer your question: Yes, I am a professional gambler. At least thats what the title would be if my job had one. I do nothing else all day, I have no other job, its my only income, and it has been for seven years now.
I know of three other people in my country (Germany, that is) who do it, too. There was a report on tv once that said around a dozen people do it professionally here, and I think that number is pretty accurate (thats 12 out of 83 Million).
I didn't really want to answer all your other questions in some small sentences because if you are really interested, you deserve the whole story, and some one-liners will not help you at all. Ask me more precisely and I will try to answer.Still, here are the answers that you demanded, though I doubt they will help you at all.
AND HOW DID YOU DO IT?
Just do it.
HOW LONG DID IT TAKE YOU?
I'm still learning. In fact, the others are, too. One of my colleagues does it for 18 years now and we can still help each other almost daily.
ANY TIPS?
Many. Most important: Accept that fun in gambling and the need for thrill are the first things you have to lose.
BANKROLL AMOUNT?
I don't have a clue.
ONLINE BETTING ?
Yes.
cya, Mart
Like Denzel said in American Gangster:
"The loudest one in the room is the weakest one"
I second that, a statistical edge is what you need and computer programs are obviously the way to get it because no matter what some people think, adding some score averages on paper and won't get you to a better prediction than the bookies have... and exactly that is what you need. You have to get away from simple "won bet vs lost bet" thoughts if you really
As for working in teams, yes, its useful and I think it helps. But only as far as exchanging information, giving different insights on a problem (how to calculate certain things). As far as betting betting, everyone has to decide his own fate.
One of the worst things to do is to rely on a "betting consensus" or anything like that. This may sound wrong to the average gambler at first, but let me show you what I mean.
We have 3 cappers, A, B and C. A wins 56% of his bets, B wins 54%, C wins 50%.
So we have: A_winning 0.56, A_losing 0.44, B_winning 0.54, B losing 0.46, C_winning = C_losing 0.5
Lets say a game is played between Team 1 and 2... Team 2 eventually wins the game
Bets: A: 1, B: 2, C: 2. The Consensus is 2-1 for Team 2.
A is wrong, B and C are right. So we have 0.44 * 0.54 * 0.5 = 0.1188
A bet on Team 1 (1-2 Consensus) would bring you to 0.56 * 0.46 * 0.5 = 0.1288. Thats actually a higher chance. A outweighs both B and C.
Let me take this even further. There are 8 possible combinations (again, 2 wins the game)
A 1, B 1, C 1 (Consensus: 1) 0.44 * 0.46 * 0.5 = 0.1012
A 1, B 1, C 2 (Consensus: 1) 0.44 * 0.46 * 0.5 = 0.1012
A 1, B 2, C 1 (Cons: 1) 0.44 * 0.54 * 0.5 = 0.1188
A 1, B 2, C 2 (Cons: 2) 0.44 * 0.54 * 0.5 = 0.1188
A 2, B 1, C 1 (Cons: 1) 0.56 * 0.46 * 0.5 = 0.1288
A 2, B 1, C 2 (Cons: 2) 0.56 * 0.46 * 0.5 = 0.1288
A 2, B 2, C 1 (Cons: 2) 0.56 * 0.54 * 0.5 = 0.1512
A 2, B 2, C 2 (Cons: 2) 0.56 * 0.54 * 0.5 = 0.1512
If you add up all "Consensus: 2" combinations, you get... tadaaah: 0.55. Thats 55%... less than the 56% by just tailing A.
In other words, if you want to rely on someone else when betting, rely on only one person. Anything else will not help you.
Someone in here said that professional gamblers would never post in this board. As I'm here, you see that that's not true. What is true though is the fact that noone who really has an edge would ever post his picks openly. And there is a reason for that, which is not that I wouldnt like to see other people winning consistently, too: Its the simple fact that if I post my edge, it will be gone. Bookies just adjust. Bets are nearly never won comfortably... Find out the average margin of won bets (ie points in the NBA), and you will be surprised how close it is. Changing every line that is made by just one point will result in a dramatical change for me (and many other people to rely on bookies making mistakes). The average bettor wouldnt realize if every line was moved in a random direction by 1 point, but for me, it is the difference between gambling (hitting 50%, throwing a dice) and making a comfortable living.
Missing a sentence there...
You have to get away from simple "won bet vs lost bet" thoughts if you really want to be successful. Won and lost bets depend on the line you get (you might lose a total bet with a 193 total, but win it with 194), whereas a pure number will always show you how good you are. "5-1 ATS" is nothing ... if you won all 5 by 1 point, but lost one by 10 points, you lost all your bets by 2 points on average... thats bad betting that will eventually come back to hurt you.
Cya, Marty
Established in 1995,
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