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World Cup 2018

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Kaufee

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Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 5013

Posted: Jul. 1, 2018 - 10:59 PM ET #476

Good stuff Van! Like the play

barneybeans

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Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9982

Posted: Jul. 2, 2018 - 12:44 AM ET #477

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Brazil / Mexico -

Brazil come in off of back to back wins against CR and Serbia - both 2-0 in group play - but neither of those games were as comfortable as the scoreline. I actually feel like their best performance was their draw against Switzerland, and were unlucky with the draw.

This is not the Brazil of old. These are all players who now play in Europe, unlike Brazil sides of old that had players that still played with club teams in South America, and while unusual to see Brazil playing in more traditional formations - I have come around to thinking it favors them.

Brazil has only faced 4 shots on target through three games in the group, which is what this "new" Brazilian side is all about - get the clean sheet and let someone do a moment of magic and take a 1 to nil. Very European.

I have written a lot about Mexico in this thread, and no other team has been do or die according to their tactics and the tactics of their opposition. There was no luck in their wins and loss, just straight up 2 tactical wins and 1 tactical loss.

The way I see it - is that JC Osorio has only one option in this game - and that is to defend and counter like they did against Germany. And we all saw what happened there, so I do not count the Mexicans out here against Brazil.

But I do feel like this Brazil side is certainly more in form than the German side Mexico faced - and poses a speed advantage that Germany didn't have - and I am not sure how Mexico will deal with that for 90+ minutes. Marcello is a big loss for Brazil going forward - the most offensive defender possibly in the history of the sport - his absence should mean that Mexico could force and funnel play to come up the center rather than bombing the wings - which would make Brazil one dimensional - or slightly less multi-dimensional.

We saw today that these knockout games are a different animal than any type of club play. Lesser teams can play for extra time and PKs, it is an unfortunate part of all of this. I really think Mexico will feel like defending and countering (cautiously) is their only hope.

I think the best bet here is the under 2.5.

Brazil / Mexico under 2.5 -102 (2.55 units to win 2.5) - most likely outcome is Brazil 1-0 or a later goal for 2-0.

" I really think Mexico will feel like defending and countering (cautiously) is their only hope."

I'm counting on it.

Marcello out is a serious blow to Brazil but I think he may come in off the bench late in the match if necessary.

I just hope (for me and your UNDER) that Ochoa is not fazed after getting rocked a few days ago - even though two of those goals he could do nothing about. I am chalking up the 0-3 to the Swedes as a tactical loss as well. First goal was "almost" blocked by Ochoa, 2nd goal was PK and third was an own goal. Yes Sweden was solid and totally deserved the win but playing this match 10 times throwing out the ties I think Mexico wins 6.

Totally agree that laying the wood in one form or another against Japan is the way to go - decided to lay more $ and less goals taking BELGIUM -¾ -222.

Japan had some good luck over Senegal (I lost a ton of $) and barely hung on vs 10 men for 90 minutes vs Colombia. I thought Poland was way overrated and their group stage finish came as no surprise - so saying Japan's luck runs out tomorrow is not true - it already ran out vs a mediocre (IMHO) Poland.

Appreciate all your hard work and insight here and maybe since Brazil 2014 did not work out we'll catch up in the US in 8 years!

The pen is mightier than the pigs