Posted:
#751
Mbappe first teenager to score in the WC since some footballer named Pele
World Cup 2018
Posted:
#752
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
France / Croatia.....
France / Croatia.....
If you would have told me these two teams would have met in the final at the beginning of the tournament, I think I would have been pissed that I don't have any future money on either. I missed France at 9-1 (but posted it) at the beginning of the knockouts, and I eyeballed Croatia at 40-1 at the beginning. If you go back to page 1 of this thread, I included Croatia in the second group of teams that had a chance to win, although I think they are in big trouble here.
Lets talk about the obvious first.... Croatia will be asked to play what amounts to their 5th game in 15 days. That is a lot - no matter what they players say - or what the press says. Will it be the deciding factor? I doubt it, but it leads in to what France will likely do - which is move Croatia from side to side and put some miles on their legs.
France gameplan against Belgium was pretty flawless. They isolated Nacer Chadli as the weak Belgian link, and like in NBA or NFL - they said if Nacer Chadli can beat us - go ahead - but we are going to cover all the rest of your stars. Check out the following passing map from the Belgium / France match - and keep in mind that Nacer Chadli is a guy who played on the worst team in the EPL, and barely got on to the field - you think France knew all of this?
It is the 4th image in the series.....
https://twitter.com/11tegen11/status/1016775803261149186
That is surely not the shape that Martinez wanted for Belgium - but it is the shape that France forced on them.
Why could France do this? Because of their dominating midfield. Kante for me might be the best player of the tournament, and Pogba and Matiuidi have been nothing short of excellent also. Matuidi was out on his feet at the end of the last match - but everything points to him playing tomorrow.
Croatia's midfield has been arguably right there with France when it comes to their success - maybe even more important. Rakitic, Modric, and Brozovic have been spectacular at controlling games the same way France has.
But where they differ is in speed of passing and pace of runners - and Croatia really struggled in the first half against England with pace. Vida and Lovren were in last man situations several times with speedy England moves - and Mbappe and Greizman should have lots of success making outside in moves. I fully expect Giroud to continue to be a hold up guy - not really concerned if he scores or not - just interested in him feeding or starting moves that will involve Greizman and Mbappe. If Croatia play anything resembling a high line - which they flirted with in the first half against England - they are toast.
I fully expect France to isolate Strinic on the left side - in the same way they did with Chadli on the right. He is the weak link. Go ahead and beat us Strinic - but you are going to have to possess the ball in your own half and beat us down the flanks - because your midfield is going to be unavailable to you. This is not only a good defensive strategy for France - but the turnovers it creates unleashes the quick passing and pace that should prove Croatias downfall.
France have only conceded in 2 out of 6 games so far. Their defenders are good - not great - but with Kante acting as basically a 5th defender when under attack - they are stellar.
This is a bit of an unusual match in that there are two old school traditional strikers on the pitch - who will be largely playing the same role - hold up play and feed teammates and clean up anything that presents itself.
France lost the final 2 years ago against Portugal at home in the Euros, and I rarely give these things much importance - but I like having the side that is focused for sure. They are not going to take anything for granted here - they have a second shot and if they lose - it wont be because they took Croatia lightly.
I am going to take a chance on a multiple goal win tomorrow. Feel free to bet France at -.5 instead of what I am doing. I think there is a decent chance that France rolls them. I think they score early, which will cause Croatia to chase - and the fatigue catches up with them and France piles on late.
France -.5 -105 (90 minutes) (2.625 units to win 2.5)
France -1 +190 (90 minutes) (2 units to win 3.8)
Predicted final France 3-0
GL all.
Total garbage writeup.
France very fortunate to win.
You gotta take your lucky wins when you can - but Croatia deserved much better.
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Posted:
#753
Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:
I will say that Pogba through ball to mBappe on the counter is precisely their game plan to get one against the run of play
Why would you ever take Kante out... I guess the yellow card but wow
I was thinking the same thing when they subbed Kante - but the sub actually worked. Kante defends deeper than Nzonzi - so I assume they wanted to cut off some of the midfield success Croatia was having higher up the pitch.
Either way, all the second half goals came after the sub.
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Posted:
#762
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:
Van,
Van,
Just want to say thank you
I had France to win world cup when it was $10.00 for $2K
I was about to hedge but saw you and diamond jack was on france. Decided add more on france -1.
Must admit it was lucky win but i knew france would win once they survived onslaught
Thanks for ur input
Glad to hear it!
Fortune favors the brave.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#763
Quote Originally Posted by JTmonayyy:
Excellent write-up and result for your final pick. Thank you for an amazing read on the tournament. You are one of the brightest stars on this entire forum.
All the best VZ! 
Thanks.
All the best to you as well.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#764
For those interested....
Expected goals (without the penalty included) were France .31 and Croatia .9.
Incredible we had 6 goals today.
And the passing map for Croatia is nothing like what I expected. France totally failed at forcing the play. Croatia were in charge and dictated play overall.
https://twitter.com/11tegen11/status/1018549813544091648
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#766
Van just wanted to say thanks for everything.
Had a LARGE bet on France 7-1 pre-tourny that I'm just giddy about but made a good chunk on the side from your picks/analysis.
Thanks for all you do and all your posts and insight. As some older/since banned 
posters might say, this tourny was super "HYPE" 
Posted:
#767
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Vanz, the fatigue was very real. France was luck to stay ahead long enough for the Croats to let go of the rope. England failed on that front bur France went for the kill once they smelled blood in the second half. Thanks again.
Vanz, the fatigue was very real. France was luck to stay ahead long enough for the Croats to let go of the rope. England failed on that front bur France went for the kill once they smelled blood in the second half. Thanks again.
France should consider themselves very fortunate that they were ahead. There would have been a very different result otherwise.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#768
Quote Originally Posted by NoodleArmHCG:
Van just wanted to say thanks for everything.
Had a LARGE bet on France 7-1 pre-tourny that I'm just giddy about but made a good chunk on the side from your picks/analysis.
Thanks for all you do and all your posts and insight. As some older/since banned posters might say, this tourny was super "HYPE"
Happy to hear it noodlearm.
Best of luck!
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#769
I joined this betting forum just to show you my appreciation.
I lurk all over the internet on various different betting forums to complement my own understanding of the game and my own predictions. This thread was a pure goldmine. Every time I went against your suggestion I lost money(e.g. I fell for the England hype and lost money on england vs croatia). Turns out you're simply much better at betting than I am despite me having years of betting experience because EVERY TIME I listened to your predictions I won money. You're so spot on you should sit in the fotball studio instead of the clowns on tv...
THANK YOU for making my experience more fun with a small surplus at the end of an exciting and hard-to-predict World Cup! Now I can afford a weekend trip to Berlin for Oktoberfest!
Best regards.
Posted:
#771
Quote Originally Posted by asayake:
I joined this betting forum just to show you my appreciation.
I lurk all over the internet on various different betting forums to complement my own understanding of the game and my own predictions. This thread was a pure goldmine. Every time I went against your suggestion I lost money(e.g. I fell for the England hype and lost money on england vs croatia). Turns out you're simply much better at betting than I am despite me having years of betting experience because EVERY TIME I listened to your predictions I won money. You're so spot on you should sit in the fotball studio instead of the clowns on tv...
THANK YOU for making my experience more fun with a small surplus at the end of an exciting and hard-to-predict World Cup! Now I can afford a weekend trip to Berlin for Oktoberfest!
Best regards.
Wow. Very kind. These are the reasons I post in the first place.
Enjoy Oktoberfest! Have been a few times, mostly in the Munich area but once in Cologne also.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#773
Vanzack, finishing strong!! Great thread my man! It’s been a daily read for me the last month and I’m really going to miss it.
After your write up, I did not hedge the France future. Kaufee is partying hard today!!
Thank you and thanks for all the other winners, VZ! I wish I could buy you a beer!
Cheers
Posted:
#774
Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:
Vanzack, finishing strong!! Great thread my man! It’s been a daily read for me the last month and I’m really going to miss it.
Vanzack, finishing strong!! Great thread my man! It’s been a daily read for me the last month and I’m really going to miss it.
After your write up, I did not hedge the France future. Kaufee is partying hard today!!
Thank you and thanks for all the other winners, VZ! I wish I could buy you a beer!
Cheers
Thanks Kauffee - enjoy the winnings!
Good to hear from a fellow old timer here at covers.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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