Posted:
#726
Only 4.6 Units on the final Van? Don't you remember the Covers betting rule of "the bigger the game, the bigger the bet"?
Awesome stuff. Thanks for all the work 
World Cup 2018
Posted:
#727
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
France / Croatia.....
France / Croatia.....
If you would have told me these two teams would have met in the final at the beginning of the tournament, I think I would have been pissed that I don't have any future money on either. I missed France at 9-1 (but posted it) at the beginning of the knockouts, and I eyeballed Croatia at 40-1 at the beginning. If you go back to page 1 of this thread, I included Croatia in the second group of teams that had a chance to win, although I think they are in big trouble here.
Lets talk about the obvious first.... Croatia will be asked to play what amounts to their 5th game in 15 days. That is a lot - no matter what they players say - or what the press says. Will it be the deciding factor? I doubt it, but it leads in to what France will likely do - which is move Croatia from side to side and put some miles on their legs.
France gameplan against Belgium was pretty flawless. They isolated Nacer Chadli as the weak Belgian link, and like in NBA or NFL - they said if Nacer Chadli can beat us - go ahead - but we are going to cover all the rest of your stars. Check out the following passing map from the Belgium / France match - and keep in mind that Nacer Chadli is a guy who played on the worst team in the EPL, and barely got on to the field - you think France knew all of this?
It is the 4th image in the series.....
https://twitter.com/11tegen11/status/1016775803261149186
That is surely not the shape that Martinez wanted for Belgium - but it is the shape that France forced on them.
Why could France do this? Because of their dominating midfield. Kante for me might be the best player of the tournament, and Pogba and Matiuidi have been nothing short of excellent also. Matuidi was out on his feet at the end of the last match - but everything points to him playing tomorrow.
Croatia's midfield has been arguably right there with France when it comes to their success - maybe even more important. Rakitic, Modric, and Brozovic have been spectacular at controlling games the same way France has.
But where they differ is in speed of passing and pace of runners - and Croatia really struggled in the first half against England with pace. Vida and Lovren were in last man situations several times with speedy England moves - and Mbappe and Greizman should have lots of success making outside in moves. I fully expect Giroud to continue to be a hold up guy - not really concerned if he scores or not - just interested in him feeding or starting moves that will involve Greizman and Mbappe. If Croatia play anything resembling a high line - which they flirted with in the first half against England - they are toast.
I fully expect France to isolate Strinic on the left side - in the same way they did with Chadli on the right. He is the weak link. Go ahead and beat us Strinic - but you are going to have to possess the ball in your own half and beat us down the flanks - because your midfield is going to be unavailable to you. This is not only a good defensive strategy for France - but the turnovers it creates unleashes the quick passing and pace that should prove Croatias downfall.
France have only conceded in 2 out of 6 games so far. Their defenders are good - not great - but with Kante acting as basically a 5th defender when under attack - they are stellar.
This is a bit of an unusual match in that there are two old school traditional strikers on the pitch - who will be largely playing the same role - hold up play and feed teammates and clean up anything that presents itself.
France lost the final 2 years ago against Portugal at home in the Euros, and I rarely give these things much importance - but I like having the side that is focused for sure. They are not going to take anything for granted here - they have a second shot and if they lose - it wont be because they took Croatia lightly.
I am going to take a chance on a multiple goal win tomorrow. Feel free to bet France at -.5 instead of what I am doing. I think there is a decent chance that France rolls them. I think they score early, which will cause Croatia to chase - and the fatigue catches up with them and France piles on late.
France -.5 -105 (90 minutes) (2.625 units to win 2.5)
France -1 +190 (90 minutes) (2 units to win 3.8)
Predicted final France 3-0
GL all.
I see you have added a psychological angle to your analysis! Needless to say, I agree. Thanks for all the hard work. And good luck to us all.
Posted:
#728
Van, Appreciate all the hard works for this thread, helps a lot of rookie for soccer! Already up for the whole 1 month tourney but well, all we want is to win the last bet of the world cup which is the france! Again win or lose thanks for picks and looking forward on your next thread maybe Copa 2019 or Euro 2020. Well hopefully we see some nfl and other soccer threads. Best of luck and lets get that france a winner!
Posted:
#735
Van I think the two midfields are a bit more closely matched and that Croatia nets one at some point. So although I am on France in 90 I am not as confident as you are, biting my nails a bit (until we see how play unfolds) and I hope you're right.
too bad this is all coming to and, feels like the last day of an awesome vacation, everyone sad to have to pack, get on the plane and leave this paradise that should happen every 3 years instead of 4.
USA a lot easier to get to than Brazil, South Africa and Qatar in 4. Maybe see you then...
Once again awesome insight, thanks for the analysis and let's get this today.
LES BLEUS!!!!
The pen is mightier than the pigs
Posted:
#738
Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:
$ pouring in on Croatia down to +320
Is that a significant move from +425 was the highest I saw. I think it is. She it at +300 20 min ago
Late money is definitely on Croatia.
You can easily get +115 now for France in 90.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#739
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:
$ pouring in on Croatia down to +320 Is that a significant move from +425 was the highest I saw. I think it is. She it at +300 20 min ago
Late money is definitely on Croatia.You can easily get +115 now for France in 90.$ pouring in on Croatia down to +320 Is that a significant move from +425 was the highest I saw. I think it is. She it at +300 20 min ago
I think this is public money moving the line down. Final game and public want a bigger return on their bet.
Posted:
#740
Van or somebody, could you explain the difference in these 2 lines?
I have france minus 1/2 +105 on the spreadline and i have france +110 on the money line. My question is why take france minus 1/2.
I dont bet soccer and dont understand the advantage of playing the spreadline over the money line. If the game draws, you are gonna lose either bet, right? so why take 5 dollars less on every hundred. what am i missing?
Thanks
cd
Posted:
#741
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:
Van or somebody, could you explain the difference in these 2 lines?I have france minus 1/2 +105 on the spreadline and i have france +110 on the money line. My question is why take france minus 1/2.I dont bet soccer and dont understand the advantage of playing the spreadline over the money line. If the game draws, you are gonna lose either bet, right? so why take 5 dollars less on every hundred. what am i missing?Thankscd
same bet take +110,this is asked and answered 100 times a year. The pools of money are separate so some times there is a few dollars worth of discrepancy.
Van or somebody, could you explain the difference in these 2 lines?I have france minus 1/2 +105 on the spreadline and i have france +110 on the money line. My question is why take france minus 1/2.I dont bet soccer and dont understand the advantage of playing the spreadline over the money line. If the game draws, you are gonna lose either bet, right? so why take 5 dollars less on every hundred. what am i missing?Thankscd
The pen is mightier than the pigs
Posted:
#742
Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:
same bet take +110,this is asked and answered 100 times a year. The pools of money are separate so some times there is a few dollars worth of discrepancy.
same bet take +110,this is asked and answered 100 times a year. The pools of money are separate so some times there is a few dollars worth of discrepancy.
Thanks for the help Barney. I never bet soccer, so would have never seen the answer. Thanks again
Posted:
#744
Croatia is really hard done by in that first half. On the balance of play, they deserve to be ahead, if at least not even.
France is all over the place. No gameplan. No organization. They haven't dealt with the Croatian press at all, and can't string together any passes - it has been all longballs.
I hate the set pieces at this tournament. France goal, Croatia goal, Handball for PK, and PK all set pieces.
France must make adjustments or else they will be at risk in the second half.
Definitely not at all what I expected, and although I am winning my bet, it is undeserved at this point.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Posted:
#747
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Croatia is really hard done by in that first half. On the balance of play, they deserve to be ahead, if at least not even.France is all over the place. No gameplan. No organization. They haven't dealt with the Croatian press at all, and can't string together any passes - it has been all longballs.I hate the set pieces at this tournament. France goal, Croatia goal, Handball for PK, and PK all set pieces.France must make adjustments or else they will be at risk in the second half.Definitely not at all what I expected, and although I am winning my bet, it is undeserved at this point.
Croatia is really hard done by in that first half. On the balance of play, they deserve to be ahead, if at least not even.France is all over the place. No gameplan. No organization. They haven't dealt with the Croatian press at all, and can't string together any passes - it has been all longballs.I hate the set pieces at this tournament. France goal, Croatia goal, Handball for PK, and PK all set pieces.France must make adjustments or else they will be at risk in the second half.Definitely not at all what I expected, and although I am winning my bet, it is undeserved at this point.
2nd half has started with the same mometum for Croatia... does croatia get the equalizer, does france hit on the counter... France's lack of composure on the ball in 2H is shocking
Posted:
#748
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Croatia is really hard done by in that first half. On the balance of play, they deserve to be ahead, if at least not even.France is all over the place. No gameplan. No organization. They haven't dealt with the Croatian press at all, and can't string together any passes - it has been all longballs.I hate the set pieces at this tournament. France goal, Croatia goal, Handball for PK, and PK all set pieces.France must make adjustments or else they will be at risk in the second half.Definitely not at all what I expected, and although I am winning my bet, it is undeserved at this point.
Croatia is really hard done by in that first half. On the balance of play, they deserve to be ahead, if at least not even.France is all over the place. No gameplan. No organization. They haven't dealt with the Croatian press at all, and can't string together any passes - it has been all longballs.I hate the set pieces at this tournament. France goal, Croatia goal, Handball for PK, and PK all set pieces.France must make adjustments or else they will be at risk in the second half.Definitely not at all what I expected, and although I am winning my bet, it is undeserved at this point.
I have Croatia so I totally respect that because I am ready to blow a gasket! Basically every penalty kick has gone against me during this tourney! 
Anyway I think, with all the technology we have they should calculate the chance of scoring when they award a penalty... I am sure they could figure out some algorithm or something there because most times (except when they missed a clear trip on basically a Swedish breakaway vs Germany... which is the epitome of a PK) PK's are a flopping joke!
Posted:
#750
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Completely agree, Vanz. No game plan no nothing. It feels like France is hanging on just like England. Sharp money coming in on Croats must have known something.
Completely agree, Vanz. No game plan no nothing. It feels like France is hanging on just like England. Sharp money coming in on Croats must have known something.
bb, like I stated earlier, to me it was square money. Someone in this thread already made a comment about how line movement is likely square money. I found it and I'll put the comment below.
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:
Thanks my man, great pick. Line movement in world cup soccer doesn't mean very much because so much of the betting comes from squares. In sports where sharp whales are a large proportion of the total bets made it means a lot more. A toast to VAN
Thanks my man, great pick. Line movement in world cup soccer doesn't mean very much because so much of the betting comes from squares. In sports where sharp whales are a large proportion of the total bets made it means a lot more. A toast to VAN
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