Thank you Mickster. It is amazing to me how little people on this board actually know about how the line is made and why. hard8...you go on thinking that "the man" is setting traps for you to fall in if that is what you want to believe but those hotels were build by sure things, not chance. Using your theory, all one would have to do is look at the board, figure out what line doesn't make sense and then make the non-obvious play. Good luck with that. Vegas does not need to gamble. Vegas does not WANT to gamble. Vegas wants YOU to gamble and for every person that thinks Tenn plus the points is a lock, there is someone else who thinks the same about Vandy. Vegas is very happy taking 5% of all wagers made with no downside. If there were even money on both sides and the line never moved, vegas would love it. If you want to really understand how the line is made...do some research. The opening line for about 90% of the vegas sportsbooks is made by Kenny White's company, Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Casinos pay his group big money to come out with a line that holds. Good luck anyway.
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Thank you Mickster. It is amazing to me how little people on this board actually know about how the line is made and why. hard8...you go on thinking that "the man" is setting traps for you to fall in if that is what you want to believe but those hotels were build by sure things, not chance. Using your theory, all one would have to do is look at the board, figure out what line doesn't make sense and then make the non-obvious play. Good luck with that. Vegas does not need to gamble. Vegas does not WANT to gamble. Vegas wants YOU to gamble and for every person that thinks Tenn plus the points is a lock, there is someone else who thinks the same about Vandy. Vegas is very happy taking 5% of all wagers made with no downside. If there were even money on both sides and the line never moved, vegas would love it. If you want to really understand how the line is made...do some research. The opening line for about 90% of the vegas sportsbooks is made by Kenny White's company, Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Casinos pay his group big money to come out with a line that holds. Good luck anyway.
Take the poinst........fade the public.....everyone will be banging on Vandy. These offenses absolutely suck.........two of the worst in the country in points scored..........small play on the dog and a hug play on the under.........it's the best under play of the day!!
I like the call on that one. I thought the same thing when I had first seen the lines. Under for me on this one too.
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Quote Originally Posted by Irisheyez:
Take the poinst........fade the public.....everyone will be banging on Vandy. These offenses absolutely suck.........two of the worst in the country in points scored..........small play on the dog and a hug play on the under.........it's the best under play of the day!!
I like the call on that one. I thought the same thing when I had first seen the lines. Under for me on this one too.
I like Tenn because Vegas likes Tenn and Vegas makes money.
If you think that Vegas tries to set a line to get even action and make its living off the juice then your wrong. they like any other group of well funded investors are driven to make us much as they can.
Banks and Wall Street werent happy enough making intrest, so that got creative ....what makes you think Vegas is doing the same.
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I like Tenn because Vegas likes Tenn and Vegas makes money.
If you think that Vegas tries to set a line to get even action and make its living off the juice then your wrong. they like any other group of well funded investors are driven to make us much as they can.
Banks and Wall Street werent happy enough making intrest, so that got creative ....what makes you think Vegas is doing the same.
to say "this line is too low because people still don't believe in Vandy" is to completely miss the mark... the correct spread on this game should be 10+ points... do you think the books "still don't believe in Vandy"? the books don't believe or disbelieve... they post a line based on performances... but once in awhile (very rarely) you see a line that doesn't reflect the performance of the two teams... when it is off by this much, it is saying that the books are betting on UT... i say this because they have set a line where (as MANY PEOPLE HAVE POINTED OUT), there is only one intelligent bet you can make: Vandy! in other words, they set a line that is FORCING YOU to bet on Vandy...
do i really need to keep explaining this??? if the books WANT you to bet on Vandy... why the fuck would you bet on Vandy!?
the books are betting on Tennessee... i would advise you not to bet against them...
Not true. The books could care less which teams wins or by how much. Their only concern is getting even money on both sides so they can collect the vig with no risk. Now, if they can get the public on the other side of an obvious winner then that is icing on the cake. But first and foremost, the line is set to neutralize public perception. That the line is only 3 points with a large % of the public on Vandy, to me anyway, indicates that the line is low because there is a lot of pro action coming in on UT.
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Quote Originally Posted by lobosrule:
to say "this line is too low because people still don't believe in Vandy" is to completely miss the mark... the correct spread on this game should be 10+ points... do you think the books "still don't believe in Vandy"? the books don't believe or disbelieve... they post a line based on performances... but once in awhile (very rarely) you see a line that doesn't reflect the performance of the two teams... when it is off by this much, it is saying that the books are betting on UT... i say this because they have set a line where (as MANY PEOPLE HAVE POINTED OUT), there is only one intelligent bet you can make: Vandy! in other words, they set a line that is FORCING YOU to bet on Vandy...
do i really need to keep explaining this??? if the books WANT you to bet on Vandy... why the fuck would you bet on Vandy!?
the books are betting on Tennessee... i would advise you not to bet against them...
Not true. The books could care less which teams wins or by how much. Their only concern is getting even money on both sides so they can collect the vig with no risk. Now, if they can get the public on the other side of an obvious winner then that is icing on the cake. But first and foremost, the line is set to neutralize public perception. That the line is only 3 points with a large % of the public on Vandy, to me anyway, indicates that the line is low because there is a lot of pro action coming in on UT.
Big island....you are just flat wrong. You give Vegas WAY too much credit. If Vegas already knows who the right side is and they are setting a line to entice the public to take one side, then why don't the guys at Las Vegas Sports Consultants just quit their job and bet for a living. Easy right? With enough information and experience, it is pretty easy to come up with a line that will get equal money on both sides. It is much more difficult to pick which side is going to cash. SuckerBet....you got most it right but there is no such thing as an obvious winner.
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Big island....you are just flat wrong. You give Vegas WAY too much credit. If Vegas already knows who the right side is and they are setting a line to entice the public to take one side, then why don't the guys at Las Vegas Sports Consultants just quit their job and bet for a living. Easy right? With enough information and experience, it is pretty easy to come up with a line that will get equal money on both sides. It is much more difficult to pick which side is going to cash. SuckerBet....you got most it right but there is no such thing as an obvious winner.
I don't pretend to be some expert at all which is why when I see something that the bookies want me to see, I'm going on the side of the bookies. They know way more than I do and they sure don't screw up and make a line too low. I would say all day long that Vandy will beat the tar out of Tennessee because I've watched them both play, however the experts out there are telling me that this is going to be a close game and to get people to take Vandy, they are giving us a low spread. Over 70% of the online public tells me that whoever set this line knows something. This isn't a screw up, it says, take Tennessee. So I'll follow the book. Good Luck everyone.
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I don't pretend to be some expert at all which is why when I see something that the bookies want me to see, I'm going on the side of the bookies. They know way more than I do and they sure don't screw up and make a line too low. I would say all day long that Vandy will beat the tar out of Tennessee because I've watched them both play, however the experts out there are telling me that this is going to be a close game and to get people to take Vandy, they are giving us a low spread. Over 70% of the online public tells me that whoever set this line knows something. This isn't a screw up, it says, take Tennessee. So I'll follow the book. Good Luck everyone.
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