All Forums | College Football

YPPT Method (College Football Edition)

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 70157
Posts: 360
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 915
Posted: #76
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #77
Hey VGPOP, I know you are opposed to the statfox stats but were do you go to find the most accurate stuff?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 763
Posted: #78

Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:



For the people wondering, what are the predictions with statfox stats.

East Carolina 30, Memphis 20
North Carolina 13, Virginia Tech 31
West Virginia 24, South Florida 22

Obviously, the biggest difference is the game between West Virginia/South Florida.

System with correct stats + excluding DIV AA scores: 29-18 (West Virginia by 11)
System with inaccurate stats + including DIV AA scores: 24-22 (West Virginia by 2)

If you look at South Florida schedule, they have played two DIV AA teams:

vs Wofford: 40-7
vs Charleston SO: 59-0

Those two blowouts skew theirs stats, and that's why you see a 2 point "defeat" counting all games.

That's exactly what I am trying to avoid here and find out if there's true value calculating this way.

How do you adjust SOS if you remove these games?  Obviously it would improve the SOS number for South FLorida and reduce score for West Virginia...

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 92
Posted: #79
Is anyone even looking at the Virgina Tech game?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 129
Posted: #80

[Quote: Originally Posted by DaBoyz2009] Is anyone even looking at the Virgina Tech game?


This is a system( yppt)thread we already have the games that fit the system, VT is not one of the games

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 129
Posted: #81

Is anyone even looking at the Virgina Tech game?

This is a system thread[yppt] we have the games that fit, VT is not one of them

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 49
Posted: #82
VG, this is great info. Thank you. Do you continue to follow the 7pt line difference as the lines change during the week? ie- Something is a play on Tuesday that is not a play Saturday morning and vice versa?
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by manifesto:

How do you adjust SOS if you remove these games?  Obviously it would improve the SOS number for South FLorida and reduce score for West Virginia...

Wrong.

Sagarin SOS has been updated as well, and in fact South Florida SOS is better than West Virginia, and still system picked them to lose by DD.

 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #84

VGPOP I don"t see where you are figuring the home field advantage in your predictions. On the West Virginia vs South Florida game for example, I have USF winning by 3 pts.

 West Virginia 21 South Florida 24

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #85

I also agree with manifesto that the Sagarin's strength of schedule ratings include both Div 1-A and Div 1-AA schools (245 teams).  So I would be careful using stats that disregard playing the Div 1-AA schools but using a SOS that does include them. 

Please believe me when I say that I am not knocking the system or your efforts.  I am just trying to help develope the best system in which we can stick it to the man.

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by 3rdLeg:

I also agree with manifesto that the Sagarin's strength of schedule ratings include both Div 1-A and Div 1-AA schools (245 teams).  So I would be careful using stats that disregard playing the Div 1-AA schools but using a SOS that does include them. 

Please believe me when I say that I am not knocking the system or your efforts.  I am just trying to help develope the best system in which we can stick it to the man.



Let me repeat again, Sagarin rating for SOS have been updated as well, meaning, all games against DIV AA teams have been removed.


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #87
 So then VGPOP I assume you know Sagarin's rating calculations as well and you are using them to remodel the SOS system?
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by 3rdLeg:

 So then VGPOP I assume you know Sagarin's rating calculations as well and you are using them to remodel the SOS system?


You don't know how Sagarin calculates his SOS?

Have you been to his website? He gives clear explanation for this.

Here, in case you missed it....

 The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced by each team in the games that it's played so far.  The schedule difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 763
Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:



You don't know how Sagarin calculates his SOS?

Have you been to his website? He gives clear explanation for this.

Here, in case you missed it....

 The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced by each team in the games that it's played so far.  The schedule difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game.


POP, you left this out:

In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 245 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations.

Both Wofford and Charleston Southern are in the rated 245, so that would lead me to believe they are included in South Florida's Sagarin's SOS number.    If you take out the stats for these two games, you have to adjust the SOS number.  In this case it would lower it which in turn would cause South Florida points to go down and WV points to go up.   Having said that, even if SF's SOS went down 5 points, it would only move the points on each side by 1.5.   Still not enough to make it a play with Statfox calcs and just makes the play better for your calcs....

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2003
Posts: 3476
Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:



Isn't that the trend this season in football?




Favs in college have covered 50.35%
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by manifesto:

POP, you left this out:

In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 245 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations.

Both Wofford and Charleston Southern are in the rated 245, so that would lead me to believe they are included in South Florida's Sagarin's SOS number.    If you take out the stats for these two games, you have to adjust the SOS number.  In this case it would lower it which in turn would cause South Florida points to go down and WV points to go up.   Having said that, even if SF's SOS went down 5 points, it would only move the points on each side by 1.5.   Still not enough to make it a play with Statfox calcs and just makes the play better for your calcs....



I don't know why West Virginia and South Florida game is giving you such a headache.

Two things are happening,

Either you have a system that is spitting South Florida cover or you are doing what you think is the system that I have and is getting the incorrect info.

South Florida have played this season: (number in parenthesis is the current rating each team has)

The home court advantage is: 3.27

Wofford (44.51)
@ Western Kentucky (46.35 + 3.27 HCA = 49.62)
Charleston SO (38.67)
@ Florida State (76.26 + 3.27 HCA = 79.53)
@ Syracuse (64.51 + 3.27 HCA = 67.78)
Cincinnati (66.78)
@ Pittsburgh (68.68)

South Florida's opponent's ratings = 44.51 + 49.62 + 38.67 + 79.53 + 67.78 + 66.78 + 68.68 = 415.57 / 7 (total teams faced) = 59.37

When you go to Sagarin's page, what do you see for SFLA SOS? 63.26

59.37 is not the same as 63.26.

Obviously, Sagarin calculates its SOS on the games played so far.

Meaning, when they faced Wofford in their first game, Wofford's ratings was different than now in week 9.

When they faced Western Kentucky in their 2nd game, WKentucky's ratings was different than it is now in week 9.

etc, etc, etc.

How am I able to remove ALL games played against DIV AA teams to keep the absolute accurate stats for Sagarin's SOS?

Before Roughshod31 even though of his system, I was keeping track of Sagarin's week-by-week ratings for my studies.

I've done that every year since like 1998.

I keep every week stored in Excel, organized, and I compared how teams were in the week before.

As far as I know, Sagarin doesn't have a website that you can go back and look what was the rating of Florida in week 3 this season. (If you or anyone have found such a website, please let me know!)

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by thawv:



Favs in college have covered 50.35%


I personally decided to select plays that differ by at least +/7 points to even consider playing this system.

Last week, there were 21 such plays and the breakdown were

8 Favorites
13 underdogs
These plays were 15 wins - 5 losses - 1 PUSH.


This week, there are 22 such plays

17 favorites
5 underdogs

That's just how the matchups developed.

It's a system after all. It's not a system to forcefully select to pick at random 50% favorites, 50% underdogs.

That's now how systems worked.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:



South Florida have played this season: (number in parenthesis is the current rating each team has)

The home court advantage is: 3.27

Wofford (44.51)
@ Western Kentucky (46.35 + 3.27 HCA = 49.62)
Charleston SO (38.67)
@ Florida State (76.26 + 3.27 HCA = 79.53)
@ Syracuse (64.51 + 3.27 HCA = 67.78)
Cincinnati (66.78)
@ Pittsburgh (68.68 + 3.27 HCA = 71.95)

South Florida's opponent's ratings = 44.51 + 49.62 + 38.67 + 79.53 + 67.78 + 66.78 + 71.95 = 415.57 / 7 (total teams faced) = 59.83

When you go to Sagarin's page, what do you see for SFLA SOS? 63.26

59.83 is not the same as 63.26.




I forgot to add Sagarin's HCA to Pittsburgh, and it was the wrong calculation.

In blue, is the correct info. You get the idea.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #94
ahhh!!!!

Total is 418.84 / 7 = 59.83.

That's why you have a computer program do this to you. Calculating by hand is tedious and error-prone.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 763
Posted: #95
POP, thanks for the explanation now I see your point.
 
Quick question - when you are dropping the stat numbers from the D2 games, are you doing that by hand or is there a site that has the stats for team less their D2 opponents?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 158
Posted: #96
Great Job VG...Appreciate you sharing all the hard work...it is appreciated!!! Wondering if you've seen any trends with how the system performs in predicting Favs vs Dogs? Out of last weeks 15-5-1, what was the breakdown between the two groups?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #97
VGPOP I don't mean to keep kicking a dead dog but you have confused the hell out of me.  In your example you are mixing in some of the teams ratings with some of the teams SOS ratings and saying it's not coming up to South Florida's SOS rating of 63.26. Of course it's not because you are using two different fields of data. I am saying that if you use each teams ranking the week it was played, adding the home field advantage if so needed (Also home field advantage changes from week to week) this will give you Sagarin's ranking which includes all teams in both divisions. Don't blow a gasket because I totally respect your efforts. I am just trying to get on the same page with you.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2008
Posts: 18
Posted: #98

SO FAR UR SYSTEM IS LOOKING GOOD,IM NOT HERE 2 ,IM HATE HERE 2 CONGRADULATE!!!!!! OHH YEA THANX 2 UR PAL ROUGH ALSO

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2008
Posts: 1299
Posted: #99
 I follow YPPT also.  Like your work bro. 
 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41904
Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

.

  • East Carolina -3.5
  • West Virginia -3.5
  • Cincinnati -15
  • Central Michigan +5
  • Iowa -17.5
  • Miami -7
  • Florida State -7.5
  • Northern Illinois -10.5
  • Georgia Tech -12
  • Iowa State +7.5
  • Western Michigan +2.5
  • Nebraska -13.5
  • SMU +17
  • Boise State -34.5
  • Toledo -5
  • Michigan -7.5
  • Texas -9.5
  • TCU -33
  • Penn State -14.5
  • San Diego State -17
  • Florida International -3.5
  • UL Monroe +16.5
  • Kansas State +28
  • Florida -15
  • New Mexico State +44


New additions in blue....
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.