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YPPT Method (College Football Edition)

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Prospect
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Posted: #101

Hey VGPOP....your work and dedication is very admirable! 

Well done!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #102
 
Veteran
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Posted: #103
 
Veteran
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Posted: #104
 
Prospect
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Posted: #105

Must give Roughshod some well deserved props as well for getting this thing rollin'!!

 

 
MVP
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Posted: #106
Good stuff


The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
Prospect
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Posted: #107

VG I am impressed by your research, your work, and your willingness to share the picks with the forum.  I hope you win with these college picks, cuz I will be on some of them!

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #108

VG, what are your thoughts on how the difference between NCAA and NFL Sagarin ratings impact this system? For example, in NCAA, the highest rating is 81.02 and the lowest is 58.26, making the highest about 39% higher. But, in the NFL, the highest rating is 26.07 and the lowest is 10.33, making the highest 152% higher.

Both systems apply SOS in the same manner, but that seems flawed especially given that there is more parity in the NFL than NCAA (Div A) Football. Perhaps the NFL variation becomes smaller week by week. But, right now it seems off the charts. A great example - try capping Browns/Redskins. A 3 TD Browns win seems unrealistic.

So which do you think needs fine tuning - NFL or NCAA?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #109

The Florida / Georgia game is one I would avoid, despite the YPPT system.  Tebow has not been the same since his concussion.  There is a major revenge factor going for Georgia after last year's blowout and Meyer's late game timeouts.  That game of course was Florida's revenge for UGA's stunt the previous year in this game where they intentionally overcelebrated after a TD on Richt's orders, drawing a penalty.  Florida is not as good as they were last year, in my opinion. 

As VG said we still have to handicap every game. 

 

 
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Posted: #110

  • East Carolina -3.5
  • West Virginia -3.5
  • Cincinnati -15
  • Central Michigan +5
  • Iowa -17.5
  • Miami -7
  • Florida State -7.5
  • Northern Illinois -10.5
  • Georgia Tech -12
  • Iowa State +7.5
  • Western Michigan +2.5
  • Nebraska -13.5
  • SMU +17
  • Boise State -34.5
  • Toledo -5
  • Michigan -7.5
  • Texas -9.5
  • TCU -33
  • Penn State -14.5
  • San Diego State -17
  • Florida International -3.5
  • UL Monroe +16.5
  • Kansas State +28
  • Florida -15
  • New Mexico State +44                   looks good
 
Prospect
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Posted: #111
hey VG,
There's another way to predict the winner that is much easier than doing the spreadsheet.  On the SOS website, the last column (predictor) can be use to estimate the point difference between the two teams. 
for example on Thursday's game.

N. Car = 71.46
VA Tech = 91.10

The difference is 19.46 or 20 so Va Tech should win by 20 pts.

Just wanted to share what I learn recently.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #112
Seems like a nice cross reference at the very least.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #113
This is the best system in the entire forum.  I cannot wait to see how this plays out the rest of the year.  I'm thinking 75%!  Does this system's projections apply to OVER/UNDER's?  Please advise guys.  This is truely remarkable and I love the comment about BACK TO THE FUTURE!
 
Veteran
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by luckierod:

1st off Thank you guys for all your hard work trying to make us all winners.
I would like to add my .02 worth. Using the games we have I did my stats.  I use on those games and rated them how I will bet them. Just wanted  to post them and see if I can help. If it helps I will post what I use. Now understand these are games that we already have. I just use my stats to pick what I think is the best bets.
 
Neb ------  Best bet 10*     
PennSt--- Best bet 10*                    
Iowa St--- Best bet 10*              
Iowa St M/L  5*
Tex.--- 3*
M/F---3*
Tcu--- 2*
Iowa---2*
 
Staying away from;
W. Mich/Kent St
M/O/ Toledo
LAMoroe/Troy
W.Va./S.florida
The rest of the games just don't fit in my system but I'am still betting some of  them
      THANK YOU for your work here    Yu Make it easy 
 
Rookie
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Posted: #115

 Thanks,  VGPOP............and to all contributors for the work & info. 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #116
Is there a thread still alive with last weeks numbers or could repost or send. I'm very impressed with the system and the 15-5 record last week. I'd like to see which 5 games missed and try to fiugre out why/what that means for this week.

thanks again for all the hard and willingness to share. We need more SMART people like you around...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #117

VGPOP, first thanks for everything.  This may be a stupid question, but what's the system's record for the year??

 

 
Veteran
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Posted: #118
Thanks VGPOP and Roughshod. Will there be a systen thread for NBA and NCAAB?
 
Veteran
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Posted: #119
 VGPOP thanks and GL always............
 
Prospect
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by Monsta:

VGPOP, first thanks for everything.  This may be a stupid question, but what's the system's record for the year??

 


GOOD question.  I know I would be interested in knowing.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by skan:

hey VG,
There's another way to predict the winner that is much easier than doing the spreadsheet.  On the SOS website, the last column (predictor) can be use to estimate the point difference between the two teams. 
for example on Thursday's game.

N. Car = 71.46
VA Tech = 91.10

The difference is 19.46 or 20 so Va Tech should win by 20 pts.

Just wanted to share what I learn recently.

I've used this exact method weeks prior without a great deal of success.

I also noticed per your example, that you didn't figure in home field advantage.  Unless that's already factored
 
Prospect
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Posted: #122
[Quote: Originally Posted by Brisco79] Is there a thread still alive with last weeks numbers or could repost or send. I'm very impressed with the system and the 15-5 record last week. I'd like to see which 5 games missed and try to fiugre out why/what that means for this week.

thanks again for all the hard and willingness to share. We need more SMART people like you around...
 
Look on the Pro forum we just started this on the college forum  I think it will be in the first 15 pages
 
Prospect
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Posts: 108
Posted: #123

Quote Originally Posted by skan:

hey VG,
There's another way to predict the winner that is much easier than doing the spreadsheet.  On the SOS website, the last column (predictor) can be use to estimate the point difference between the two teams. 
for example on Thursday's game.

N. Car = 71.46
VA Tech = 91.10

The difference is 19.46 or 20 so Va Tech should win by 20 pts.

Just wanted to share what I learn recently.

You can also just bet the moneyline on huge favs. But, that's lazy betting. You have to start crunching numbers. It's already alot that we're relying on someone else to gauge SOS. Get off the couch and start combing over stats.

The Florida spread is big. But, when get down to the real numbers, it's not crazy when you consider their offense+defense will net over 200 more yards. Tebow is not the whole team. Their defense is sick. Giving up 214 yards per game, while opponents are normal putting up 374 yards per game. That's excluding the junk Div AA game. Only Alabama and Texas even come close to that disparity. And, they're not even that close. Everyone talks about USC's D, and they're not even in the same league.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #124
[Quote: Originally Posted by luckierod] [Quote: Originally Posted by Brisco79] Is there a thread still alive with last weeks numbers or could repost or send. I'm very impressed with the system and the 15-5 record last week. I'd like to see which 5 games missed and try to fiugre out why/what that means for this week.

thanks again for all the hard and willingness to share. We need more SMART people like you around...
 
Look on the Pro forum we just started this on the college forum  I think it will be in the first 15 pages

 

START ON POST 262 of the pro forum

 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1440
Posted: #125
I'm going to try this this week, not as a starting point, but as a way to double-check games I have already capped and am strongly considering. 

For instance I will play on Penn St, Georgia Tech and New Mexico St.
I will hold off on a few I was leaning on, like Indiana.  After all, not making bad bets counts the same as making good ones.  And I may revisit going with West Virginia, which I was a little paranoid about.

Thanks for all the hard work!  
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