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YPPT Method (College Football Edition)

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Prospect
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Posted: #51
After watching this system for 3 weeks now, all I can say is if you had bet evenly across the board, you would have won money. No system is perfect, but this is a nice tool to get an idea of how 2 teams stack up against each other.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

Let me be clear here, you will NOT get these results using statfox stats.

These stats exclude ALL games against DIV-AA teams for each team.

VGPOP, are you doing the D2 exclusion numbers by hand or is there somewhere you can get the stats already calculated without D2 games in them?  Thanks for the hard work...

 
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Posted: #53
Is ECU still a legit pick then at -5.5?
 
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Posted: #54
VG thank you for taking the time to post.
 
Captain
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Posted: #55
memphis is the play line is now up to high!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #56
this is another good rating system, thanks, i appreciate it.
 
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Posted: #57
BOL, will take a few of these this week
 
Prospect
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Posted: #58
Thanks for the posting your score predictions VGPOP !!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #59

VGPOP,

Can you do a breakdown on how you calculate today's NCAAF game w/ECU & Memphis?  If you can show step by step, I would truly appreciate it.

Thanks

Kudos!

 
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Posted: #60
great job man. thanx
 
Captain
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Posted: #61
EC 31 - 18 = - 13 pt diff .. Opening line - 3 1/2 which qualifies the 7 or more needed to make EC a play , but the line movement here scares me .. I'm buckin the system and taking Memphis .. Anyone with me ..
 
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Posted: #62

Thanks for the info.

 
Legend
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

WEEK 9 Predictions

Game1    ECarolina    31    Memphis    18
Game2    Ncarolina    10    VirginiaTech    31
Game3    Wvirginia    29    Sflorida    18



For the people wondering, what are the predictions with statfox stats.

East Carolina 30, Memphis 20
North Carolina 13, Virginia Tech 31
West Virginia 24, South Florida 22

Obviously, the biggest difference is the game between West Virginia/South Florida.

System with correct stats + excluding DIV AA scores: 29-18 (West Virginia by 11)
System with inaccurate stats + including DIV AA scores: 24-22 (West Virginia by 2)

If you look at South Florida schedule, they have played two DIV AA teams:

vs Wofford: 40-7
vs Charleston SO: 59-0

Those two blowouts skew theirs stats, and that's why you see a 2 point "defeat" counting all games.

That's exactly what I am trying to avoid here and find out if there's true value calculating this way.
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by GameCocknRoll:

Thanks for the posting your score predictions VGPOP !!!!!!!!!!!!


if you go to the original thread posted in the NFL forum the calculations are posted in there numerous times, go check that out.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #65
I got West VA 32, USF 22 when I used statfox straight up. Wonder why thats different from your 29-18.  Looks like Im not even using the 'innacurate' stats right.. haha
 
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Posted: #66
there are a lot of good plays this week

Cincinnati, ohio, penn state, and maybe florida just to name a few.

What do you guys think?
 
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Posted: #67
Thanks for the Info roughshod31 and VGPOP  
 
Prospect
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Posted: #68
The system seems to have struck again, congrats followers! And thanks Rough and VG again! 
 
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Posted: #69
The system seems to have struck again, congrats followers! And thanks Rough and VG again! 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:



For the people wondering, what are the predictions with statfox stats.

East Carolina 30, Memphis 20
North Carolina 13, Virginia Tech 31
West Virginia 24, South Florida 22

Obviously, the biggest difference is the game between West Virginia/South Florida.

System with correct stats + excluding DIV AA scores: 29-18 (West Virginia by 11)
System with inaccurate stats + including DIV AA scores: 24-22 (West Virginia by 2)

If you look at South Florida schedule, they have played two DIV AA teams:

vs Wofford: 40-7
vs Charleston SO: 59-0

Those two blowouts skew theirs stats, and that's why you see a 2 point "defeat" counting all games.

That's exactly what I am trying to avoid here and find out if there's true value calculating this way.


I think this is why we are seeing more games this week because of you removing these games. Hopefully it just means more wins!
Is that the only change you have made to the formula? (I am trying ideas on my sheet to make the scores a bit more accurate)
Great job. Thanks!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #71
Thanks for another winner! Even pretty close with the score on this one VG....
 
Prospect
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Posted: #72
1st off Thank you guys for all your hard work trying to make us all winners.
I would like to add my .02 worth. Using the games we have I did my stats.  I use on those games and rated them how I will bet them. Just wanted  to post them and see if I can help. If it helps I will post what I use. Now understand these are games that we already have. I just use my stats to pick what I think is the best bets.
 
Neb ------  Best bet 10*     
PennSt--- Best bet 10*                    
Iowa St--- Best bet 10*              
Iowa St M/L  5*
Tex.--- 3*
M/F---3*
Tcu--- 2*
Iowa---2*
 
Staying away from;
W. Mich/Kent St
M/O/ Toledo
LAMoroe/Troy
W.Va./S.florida
The rest of the games just don't fit in my system but I'am still betting some of  them
 
Prospect
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Posted: #73
hey luckierod,

what other criteria do you use to pick games besides this YPPT method? I am curious and want to improve my system.
 
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Posted: #74

hey luckierod,

what other criteria do you use to pick games besides this YPPT method? I am curious and want to improve my system.

 


I'am not sure it works yet but I just take the teams that have better yards defense and better points defense and close SOS. I don't use any offensive stats. It works well in the bowl season over the last few years. Its seems like if you get a dog like Iowa St, they end up winning out right. I use it in the pros too, seattle is a very strong pick there. I'am just trying it now with the picks Rough and VG already gave us. Their system seems very good, I wanted to see if I can make my picks alittle stronger.

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #75
My local has W.Virgina at -3.  What's the consensus? 
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