Maybe this is me being a pain in the arss...but can we keep this thread to VGPOP's games and understanding his method to come up with them. If you have other idea's put them in a different thread. This is by far the best system to identify games that a lot of us have seen....add our own handicapping/homework and we should be able to pick a lot of winners.
You people putting up your wham bam thank you maam theories need to go read the 700+ comments on the NFL thread to understand just how much work has gone into this. Let's not dilute with crap.
Thanks!!
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Maybe this is me being a pain in the arss...but can we keep this thread to VGPOP's games and understanding his method to come up with them. If you have other idea's put them in a different thread. This is by far the best system to identify games that a lot of us have seen....add our own handicapping/homework and we should be able to pick a lot of winners.
You people putting up your wham bam thank you maam theories need to go read the 700+ comments on the NFL thread to understand just how much work has gone into this. Let's not dilute with crap.
Maybe this is me being a pain in the arss...but can we keep this thread to VGPOP's games and understanding his method to come up with them. If you have other idea's put them in a different thread. This is by far the best system to identify games that a lot of us have seen....add our own handicapping/homework and we should be able to pick a lot of winners.
You people putting up your wham bam thank you maam theories need to go read the 700+ comments on the NFL thread to understand just how much work has gone into this. Let's not dilute with crap.
Well since you just joined covers and only made 3 post 1 being this one, will you not take over AS THE TREAD DIRECTOR. If some one has something to add to the picks that might make picks better they should post it . Everyone here is trying to help,not being a pain in the arss
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[Quote: Originally Posted by Airmail26]
Maybe this is me being a pain in the arss...but can we keep this thread to VGPOP's games and understanding his method to come up with them. If you have other idea's put them in a different thread. This is by far the best system to identify games that a lot of us have seen....add our own handicapping/homework and we should be able to pick a lot of winners.
You people putting up your wham bam thank you maam theories need to go read the 700+ comments on the NFL thread to understand just how much work has gone into this. Let's not dilute with crap.
Well since you just joined covers and only made 3 post 1 being this one, will you not take over AS THE TREAD DIRECTOR. If some one has something to add to the picks that might make picks better they should post it . Everyone here is trying to help,not being a pain in the arss
Hey VGPOP do you add HFA after you get the results from your calculations? because i'm under or over your totals by 1 or 2 each time....Or do you round off to get a realistic score.
And i must say this is a wonderful tool that helps to determine winners with some capping skills..
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Hey VGPOP do you add HFA after you get the results from your calculations? because i'm under or over your totals by 1 or 2 each time....Or do you round off to get a realistic score.
And i must say this is a wonderful tool that helps to determine winners with some capping skills..
Some people have been asking what is the record on these plays since Roughshod31 created the thread in the NFL forum.
These are the record for the plays that differed by +/- 7 points from Vegas closing line (scoresandodds.com) (Roughshod31 himself set a +/-4 point difference in the beginning. I changed it to a full TD to get better results). Also, when I started to post predictions, I counted those games, not Roughshod31's predictions, since he kept adjusting the system, adding HCA and other factors. (No disrespect to the him)
NFL: 18 wins - 6 losses - 1 PUSH (75%)
NCAAF: 24 wins - 15 losses - 1 PUSH (61.5%)
TOTAL: 42 wins - 21 losses - 2 PUSH (66.7%)
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Some people have been asking what is the record on these plays since Roughshod31 created the thread in the NFL forum.
These are the record for the plays that differed by +/- 7 points from Vegas closing line (scoresandodds.com) (Roughshod31 himself set a +/-4 point difference in the beginning. I changed it to a full TD to get better results). Also, when I started to post predictions, I counted those games, not Roughshod31's predictions, since he kept adjusting the system, adding HCA and other factors. (No disrespect to the him)
Some people have been asking what is the record on these plays since Roughshod31 created the thread in the NFL forum.
These are the record for the plays that differed by +/- 7 points from Vegas closing line (scoresandodds.com) (Roughshod31 himself set a +/-4 point difference in the beginning. I changed it to a full TD to get better results). Also, when I started to post predictions, I counted those games, not Roughshod31's predictions, since he kept adjusting the system, adding HCA and other factors. (No disrespect to the him)
NFL: 18 wins - 6 losses - 1 PUSH (75%)
NCAAF: 24 wins - 15 losses - 1 PUSH (61.5%)
TOTAL: 42 wins - 21 losses - 2 PUSH (66.7%)
Went against the pub the other night with Memphis , bucking the system . Example EC open - 3 1/2 and finished at - 7 . The play was EC but the movement swayed me to Memphis . Is there any guidelines that could help us out on to when to play the favorite ( going with the pub ) or taking the dog in such a case ? Thanks
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Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:
Some people have been asking what is the record on these plays since Roughshod31 created the thread in the NFL forum.
These are the record for the plays that differed by +/- 7 points from Vegas closing line (scoresandodds.com) (Roughshod31 himself set a +/-4 point difference in the beginning. I changed it to a full TD to get better results). Also, when I started to post predictions, I counted those games, not Roughshod31's predictions, since he kept adjusting the system, adding HCA and other factors. (No disrespect to the him)
NFL: 18 wins - 6 losses - 1 PUSH (75%)
NCAAF: 24 wins - 15 losses - 1 PUSH (61.5%)
TOTAL: 42 wins - 21 losses - 2 PUSH (66.7%)
Went against the pub the other night with Memphis , bucking the system . Example EC open - 3 1/2 and finished at - 7 . The play was EC but the movement swayed me to Memphis . Is there any guidelines that could help us out on to when to play the favorite ( going with the pub ) or taking the dog in such a case ? Thanks
I already have a spreadsheet that I created and has been using it since Roughshod31 started the thread on the nfl forum 3 weeks ago. All I'm saying is that there's also another way to predict (validate your pick). The past few games I played using the spreadsheet showed similar spread difference to the SOS pure points.
Quote Originally Posted by rinconen:
You can also just bet the moneyline on huge favs. But, that's lazy betting. You have to start crunching numbers. It's already alot that we're relying on someone else to gauge SOS. Get off the couch and start combing over stats.
The Florida spread is big. But, when get down to the real numbers, it's not crazy when you consider their offense+defense will net over 200 more yards. Tebow is not the whole team. Their defense is sick. Giving up 214 yards per game, while opponents are normal putting up 374 yards per game. That's excluding the junk Div AA game. Only Alabama and Texas even come close to that disparity. And, they're not even that close. Everyone talks about USC's D, and they're not even in the same league.
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I already have a spreadsheet that I created and has been using it since Roughshod31 started the thread on the nfl forum 3 weeks ago. All I'm saying is that there's also another way to predict (validate your pick). The past few games I played using the spreadsheet showed similar spread difference to the SOS pure points.
Quote Originally Posted by rinconen:
You can also just bet the moneyline on huge favs. But, that's lazy betting. You have to start crunching numbers. It's already alot that we're relying on someone else to gauge SOS. Get off the couch and start combing over stats.
The Florida spread is big. But, when get down to the real numbers, it's not crazy when you consider their offense+defense will net over 200 more yards. Tebow is not the whole team. Their defense is sick. Giving up 214 yards per game, while opponents are normal putting up 374 yards per game. That's excluding the junk Div AA game. Only Alabama and Texas even come close to that disparity. And, they're not even that close. Everyone talks about USC's D, and they're not even in the same league.
Eppy224, The only time I factor in the HFA is on my spreadsheet. I'm not sure if HFA is needed on pure point calculation. Like I said earlier, I use both my spreadsheet and pure point to help with my pick. There's no such thing as a perfect pick system. The more system you have to help handicap, the higher the chance of picking the winner. As VG stated earlier, I would pick games that has at least 7-10 pts margin before I play the game. For the game tongiht, it would be a no-play on a saturday weekend but I would play a teaser on this game.
Quote Originally Posted by eppy224:
I've used this exact method weeks prior without a great deal of success.
I also noticed per your example, that you didn't figure in home field advantage. Unless that's already factored
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Eppy224, The only time I factor in the HFA is on my spreadsheet. I'm not sure if HFA is needed on pure point calculation. Like I said earlier, I use both my spreadsheet and pure point to help with my pick. There's no such thing as a perfect pick system. The more system you have to help handicap, the higher the chance of picking the winner. As VG stated earlier, I would pick games that has at least 7-10 pts margin before I play the game. For the game tongiht, it would be a no-play on a saturday weekend but I would play a teaser on this game.
Quote Originally Posted by eppy224:
I've used this exact method weeks prior without a great deal of success.
I also noticed per your example, that you didn't figure in home field advantage. Unless that's already factored
This is the best system in the entire forum. I cannot wait to see how this plays out the rest of the year. I'm thinking 75%! Does this system's projections apply to OVER/UNDER's? Please advise guys. This is truely remarkable and I love the comment about BACK TO THE FUTURE!
So far it hit 2 for 2 this week, with Tuesday being the over which I played the under due to the rain and under on Thurs, which I made mine money back but lost back to Vtech, when the system indicated should be a no play.
This could be a serious system if you are an average capper, it does give good insight, heck 51% winning is earning money to mine knowledge.
Thanks VG and Rough.
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Quote Originally Posted by locitup1time:
This is the best system in the entire forum. I cannot wait to see how this plays out the rest of the year. I'm thinking 75%! Does this system's projections apply to OVER/UNDER's? Please advise guys. This is truely remarkable and I love the comment about BACK TO THE FUTURE!
So far it hit 2 for 2 this week, with Tuesday being the over which I played the under due to the rain and under on Thurs, which I made mine money back but lost back to Vtech, when the system indicated should be a no play.
This could be a serious system if you are an average capper, it does give good insight, heck 51% winning is earning money to mine knowledge.
Been studying this for awhile and this is by far the best system I've seen. Here's the games I've capped according to this system for Friday/Saturday action.
WVU -3.5(locked in Tuesday) 2U May buy it back for 1U. Don't have a good feeling for the game and mad at myself for not buying the hook when I most certaintly should have. It's at -3 now and does fit this system
CINCINATI -14 -125 (bought hook) 3U
ISU +7 It's down to 6 but still fits the system 2U
NEBRASKA -13 2U
PSU -14 -120 (bought hook) 3U
MIAMI -7 1U
GTECH -12 1U
MICHIGAN -7 1.5U
NMS +44 1U
Plays still contemplating all for 1 unit
NIU -12 (now fitting the system exactly at 7 point differencial), spread keeps moving up.
SMU +16.5 (if QB is playing it is for sure a play)
TCU -33 (allready playing NMS and need more input before I decide to give it the go)
SDS -16 (line is dropping and don't know much about these 2, it most likely will be a play though, looks like huge revenge spot if you look at last year's score)
KSU +28 (thoughts welcome, can't dismiss it but can't play it yet either)
All other plays I've ruled out. Take it for what it's worth. Just letting you know these are the best games I see according to this system. 2 questions for VGPOP and I know I could probably get the answers by digging through the original post by here goes. #1 Does this system work for Over/Unders? #2 Does this system factor in injuries?
Thanks in advance and thoughts/comments are greatly appreciated on these plays. Especially the ones I'm still debating on.
Much love,
Loc
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OK guys,
Been studying this for awhile and this is by far the best system I've seen. Here's the games I've capped according to this system for Friday/Saturday action.
WVU -3.5(locked in Tuesday) 2U May buy it back for 1U. Don't have a good feeling for the game and mad at myself for not buying the hook when I most certaintly should have. It's at -3 now and does fit this system
CINCINATI -14 -125 (bought hook) 3U
ISU +7 It's down to 6 but still fits the system 2U
NEBRASKA -13 2U
PSU -14 -120 (bought hook) 3U
MIAMI -7 1U
GTECH -12 1U
MICHIGAN -7 1.5U
NMS +44 1U
Plays still contemplating all for 1 unit
NIU -12 (now fitting the system exactly at 7 point differencial), spread keeps moving up.
SMU +16.5 (if QB is playing it is for sure a play)
TCU -33 (allready playing NMS and need more input before I decide to give it the go)
SDS -16 (line is dropping and don't know much about these 2, it most likely will be a play though, looks like huge revenge spot if you look at last year's score)
KSU +28 (thoughts welcome, can't dismiss it but can't play it yet either)
All other plays I've ruled out. Take it for what it's worth. Just letting you know these are the best games I see according to this system. 2 questions for VGPOP and I know I could probably get the answers by digging through the original post by here goes. #1 Does this system work for Over/Unders? #2 Does this system factor in injuries?
Thanks in advance and thoughts/comments are greatly appreciated on these plays. Especially the ones I'm still debating on.
KSU +27 is most certaintly a play. (I think they build off the COL win last week and play hard in this one. Look at the previous matchups! May be upgraded to a 2U if I can be convinced or see others on it)
Buying back a unit on WVU. Just a strong gut feel. I could definitely see a 3 point win for WVU and I would be kicking myself...
GL EVERYONE!!!!!
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Quick update...
KSU +27 is most certaintly a play. (I think they build off the COL win last week and play hard in this one. Look at the previous matchups! May be upgraded to a 2U if I can be convinced or see others on it)
Buying back a unit on WVU. Just a strong gut feel. I could definitely see a 3 point win for WVU and I would be kicking myself...
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, isn't accurate enough...........yet. Thanks though for running the no.'s
which I played the under due to the rain and under on Thurs, which I made mine money back but lost back to Vtech, when the system indicated should be a no play. 
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