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YPPT Method (College Football Edition)

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Rookie
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Posted: #326

Quote Originally Posted by BigWhitt:




TRUE!!! But lets cap it a bit...OSU can clinch Big Ten title with win.... Iowa starting QB injured.  And also , why be SOOO focused on who will cover when this is an EXCELLENT game for an UNDER bet???????  

 

OK.  So they just say this is the game of the week to watch...not exactly wager on.  I understand. 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #327
Exactly! But I sure like that UNDER!!!! I'll let ya in on my little strategy I have been using.  After I get all the numbers that VG posts I then figure in the spreads and get the winners along with their margin of victories over the spread and I list them in order from 1- whatever. Then I break lets say the top 15 games down in three categories.  

1). teams getting points that the sytem has WINNING OUTRIGHT.
2.) Teams getting points that the system has COVERING. and
3). Teams favored to win that the system has COVERING.  

I have had superb results with categories 1 and 2. Category 3 has been about effective as the system, one week great, one week zilch!

Now REMEMBER.... I have only been using about the top 15-20 teams with the best margin of victory for this system! Try it, Bet everyone gets a new outlook at the system!  Let me know what you think!!
 
Legend
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Posted: #328

I haven't been able to even input last week's games in Excel.

I don't think I will be able to provide predictions for this week. NBA is at full swing, and I am more concentrated there.

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #329

Hey VGPOP,

I am very interested in more detail how this system works and looking to modify it. I just tried to friend you because I would like to get in touch with you and talk more in detail. I am very good with excel and numbers and am looking to populate a winning system. Please send me a message with your email.

 

Thanks

 
Prospect
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Posted: #330
Vg...dont give up on us.  Can you hook one of us up that has the time to complete the spread sheet for you?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #331
Well since it looks like VG has gone NBA on us just use this site that has very comparable predictions and some great betting tools and graphs!  www.cfbtn.com   Once on the site click on MATRIX PICKS on the right for a printable list of the scores.  Then try this.....

I'll let ya in on my little strategy I have been using.  After I get all the predicted scores I then figure in the spreads and get the winners along with their margin of victories over the spread and I list them in order from 1- whatever. Then I break lets say the top 15 games down in three categories.  

1). teams getting points that the sytem has WINNING OUTRIGHT.
2.) Teams getting points that the system has COVERING. and
3). Teams favored to win that the system has COVERING.  

I have had superb results with categories 1 and 2. Category 3 has been about effective as the system, one week great, one week zilch!

Now REMEMBER.... I have only been using about the top 15-20 teams with the best margin of victory for this system! One week you may have 8 teams in Cat 1 and 2 and the next 4. Try it, Bet everyone gets a new outlook at the system!  Let me know what you think!!
 
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Posted: #332
Thanks Whitt.  Would you mind posting the picks (if you've allready researched) in this thread those that fit in your categories #1 and #2?  If not, no biggie, I will calculate tommorrow since it looks like VGPOP will not be posing the comupter generated plays for this system anymore. 
 
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Posted: #333
So the top 5 plays from cat 1 and 2 would be

AZ

do I have that right?
 
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Posted: #334
That didn't post correctly: Best 6 from Cat 1 and 2

Stanford
Auburn
Arizona
Tulane
texas A+M
Marshall

With strong play under in Oh St/Penn St and Florida.

Right?
 
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Posted: #335
 
Prospect
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Posted: #336

If you bet every game that CFBTN predicted, you would have gone 32-20.

If you uses VG's method of only betting the games that had a 7 point variation from the spread, you would have gone 2-4 and if you change the variation to 6, you would have gone 4-5.

It seems, it is good at picking winners but it isn't good and creating a confidence level in its picks.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #337

It's too bad CFBTN doesn't have a way to copy and paste the matrix picks because it would be easier to play with the numbers in excel.

Or am I just a dumb ass.  Easy with your responses... 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #338
how is auburn a strong play?
bigwhitt can you do a couple games from this weekend as an example for how you list out games and decide based on categories 1 and 2?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #339
so essentially what you are saying is that this system is better for playing underdogs? you make your system sound complicated. so just pick underdogs that cover or win outright? am i right?
 
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Posted: #340
Tx longhorn - click the CSV button next to the matrix picks, select all, paste, then use text to columns to make it look correct.

RM - the original system, as I understood it, had a 7 pt requirement.  What bigwhitt is doing does not - it is just the largest deviation from the spread - but I could be way off.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #341
Bandos
 
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Posted: #342

This is a good start to making a winning formula but you are missing some key variables that would filter out a lot of games and raise your winning percentage

 

Good job though you're further than most people get

 
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Posted: #343
Just cuz I like numbers, gambling and procrastination; I ran the numbers.  All of these are at least FOUR points from the line (in order of greatest deviation from line)

Cat 1:
Fresno
Tulane
Tenn
Marshall (only home team)
AZ
Auburn

Cat 2:
Indiana
Stanf
Iowa
Tx A+M
SJS
Akron (only home team in either cat 1 or 2)

I'll list Cat 3 just cuz but they certainly seem dubious at best
Idaho
Kentucky
Cincy
Clemson
Nebraska
Houston
Pitt
Az St
ECU
 
Prospect
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Posted: #344
To answer a few questions... My strategy does seem to favor the underdogs. Category 3 just hasnt produced much for me on a consistant basis but I DO STILL USE THEM with smaller bets. I dont necessarily have the "7" point rule, I just take the top 15-20 games according to the margin of victory over the spread then use my own discretion as to HOW LOW TO GO!! I may take a team in Cat 1 that has a +4 margin if they are getting 24 points...see what I'm saying? I DO however try to keep my Cat 3 picks at +8 or so just to improve my odds! Looks like BANDOS has the same teams I had. When the lines settle a bit tomorrow I will post my exact results.  I will give show my O/U results and strategy to.  And BTW... wait till you try this Category Strategy on the NFL!!! 
 
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Posted: #345
Just an example of how my Category System worked in NFL last week! Keep in mind, this was my best week so far so dont go betting the farm! 

Category 1  was 3-1. The loss was Denver but you know I faded them and took the Steelers like most did and still went 4-0.

Category 2 was 4-0-1 ( Miami PUSH)

Category 3 was 1-3. 

Needless to say I unloaded on the books!!!

Now you see why I had to share this with everyone!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #346
Quote Originally Posted by BigWhitt:

Just an example of how my Category System worked in NFL last week! Keep in mind, this was my best week so far so dont go betting the farm! 

Category 1  was 3-1. The loss was Denver but you know I faded them and took the Steelers like most did and still went 4-0.

Category 2 was 4-0-1 ( Miami PUSH)

Category 3 was 1-3. 

Needless to say I unloaded on the books!!!

Now you see why I had to share this with everyone!!!



BTW...all of my Cat 2 margin of victories over the spread were UNDER 4, but 3 of the 5 were getting 10 points. Cat 3's were all over 10 points and went 1-3.  So you still have to take some chances and some games UNDER the "7" point rule!!
 
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Posted: #347

Quote Originally Posted by BandosWB:

Just cuz I like numbers, gambling and procrastination; I ran the numbers.  All of these are at least FOUR points from the line (in order of greatest deviation from line)

Cat 1:
Fresno
Tulane
Tenn
Marshall (only home team)
AZ
Auburn

Cat 2:
Indiana
Stanf
Iowa
Tx A+M
SJS
Akron (only home team in either cat 1 or 2)

I'll list Cat 3 just cuz but they certainly seem dubious at best
Idaho
Kentucky
Cincy
Clemson
Nebraska
Houston
Pitt
Az St
ECU

 

Akron should be scratched, they aren't favored for anything!

 
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Posted: #348
Open field - I just saw that mistake - had them in the wrong category.
 
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Posted: #349
Start a new thread..BigWhitt.  You have been around long enough to know not to hijack someone's thread.  The guy said he is going to NBA..get a clue or you should boxed.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #350
Hey bigg whitt I was looking for the predicted scores of the NFL and can't find them where can I go to get those thanks
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