The better bet is over 63.5. Georgia should average over 40. However, Missouri should average 28 or more. 45-34 you lose. but 45-34 is 79. The over/under is simply set too low.
Trust me. Everyone missed the total on OSU/TCU at 58. I was waiting all week for someone to show me they had a brain and could use common sense and figure out that OSU gets 40 or more on everyone and TCU was good for 30 on most teams - an average of 70 that was ten over the total.
It's not easy to win by 14 or more on the road in college football. Georgia gave up 25 at home to Mizzou last year. Mizzou runs a play every damn 5 seconds (like TCU) which inflates the totals. They can play like garbage and still get 30 because they get 200 possessions a game.
Mizzou should be good for 30 in this game. Georgia is good on D but they don't dominate the line of scrimmage like LSU or Bama.
The best way to look at it is this. Do you see a scenario in which Georgia covers, but the total doesn't go over 63? Probably not. Even 45-21 goes over that. I compare this to the risk people took in the over with Bama last week. They went over 71. No, the correct play was over 46 for Bama because the Ole Miss total was a huge variable. Bama getting 50 was a lock.
How stupid are you gonna feel if Georgia is up 20 and gets backdoored to a 13 point win? I just think Mizzou is too competent to expect a wire to wire 30 point blowout that all you guys are banking on.
Every week I see idiots on here taking teams on the road laying double digits. The moron bet I saw last week was Oklahoma giving 18 on the road to an Iowa State team that is physical on defense and capable of putting 30 up at home vs a soft D. Everyone just looked at the Iowa/ISU game and figured ISU was gonna lose by 50. Apparently, they were too stupid to realize scoring at Iowa is a little harder than scoring at home on Oklahoma.
If I had to pick a side, I would take Georgia here. But ask yourself. What should this line be? 17.5 to me is too high. Maybe 16? Is there really value here? Mizzou runs a play every 5 seconds. They will be trying to match Georgia score for score. This is going over unless Mizzou plays incompetently on offense and they just can't move the ball. But man, SC moved the ball on Georgia. They're just a loser team that can't finish drives. Lock is also a guy that is big play prone - one way or another. Meaning he can hit an 80 yard pass or throw a pick six. Great stuff for betting overs. I just can't back 13.5 as a quality play if Mizzou is probably gonna get 30+ in this one. The only concern to me is they are a bit one dimensional relying so much on passing it nearly down. But the flip side is that keeps the game uptempo and inflates the total. Mizzou is soft on D but they can hold Georgia below 50 and still cover here.
NOTE - number is now 14.5 - zero value now with Georgia. Everyone lay off this. Come to think of it, the team total for Georgia should be like 39. Actually, you can bet over for Georgia. But taking them -14 is stupid. If they score under 39 they aren't covering almost no matter what. But they could score 42 and still not cover. So that's the correct play in this one imo. That's if you want to take Georgia. But I like the over 63 because I think it's possible Mizzou could hold them to 35 or 38. They are at home. Odds are Georgia gets 40+ I think but it's not a lock.
UGA mentioned a 55-27 total. That's 82 points. Hey, Georgia could get 55. But you have Mizzou on 27. That means Georgia needs now 42 to cover. Their team total posted will be 39. If you think about this logically, it makes no sense to bet the spread and not the individual team total. This is something important that people around here need to start realizing. Bet some of these individual team totals.
Vegas estimated score is 39-25 Georgia. This just feels off to me. You can't underestimate the tempo of the game and the amount of times Mizzou throws from the shotgun. So yeah, over 39 for Georgia or over 63.5. Don't take Georgia -13.5 That would only make sense if you can see them winning a big blowout in a low scoring game like 34-13 or 37-17. That's quite unlikely.
I'll be on the UGA TT over and the over as well. Drew Lock can sling it but UGA will score at will on a team that just gave up 37 to Purdue.
This has made a ton early in the CFB season - well said.
The better bet is over 63.5. Georgia should average over 40. However, Missouri should average 28 or more. 45-34 you lose. but 45-34 is 79. The over/under is simply set too low.
Trust me. Everyone missed the total on OSU/TCU at 58. I was waiting all week for someone to show me they had a brain and could use common sense and figure out that OSU gets 40 or more on everyone and TCU was good for 30 on most teams - an average of 70 that was ten over the total.
It's not easy to win by 14 or more on the road in college football. Georgia gave up 25 at home to Mizzou last year. Mizzou runs a play every damn 5 seconds (like TCU) which inflates the totals. They can play like garbage and still get 30 because they get 200 possessions a game.
Mizzou should be good for 30 in this game. Georgia is good on D but they don't dominate the line of scrimmage like LSU or Bama.
The best way to look at it is this. Do you see a scenario in which Georgia covers, but the total doesn't go over 63? Probably not. Even 45-21 goes over that. I compare this to the risk people took in the over with Bama last week. They went over 71. No, the correct play was over 46 for Bama because the Ole Miss total was a huge variable. Bama getting 50 was a lock.
How stupid are you gonna feel if Georgia is up 20 and gets backdoored to a 13 point win? I just think Mizzou is too competent to expect a wire to wire 30 point blowout that all you guys are banking on.
Every week I see idiots on here taking teams on the road laying double digits. The moron bet I saw last week was Oklahoma giving 18 on the road to an Iowa State team that is physical on defense and capable of putting 30 up at home vs a soft D. Everyone just looked at the Iowa/ISU game and figured ISU was gonna lose by 50. Apparently, they were too stupid to realize scoring at Iowa is a little harder than scoring at home on Oklahoma.
If I had to pick a side, I would take Georgia here. But ask yourself. What should this line be? 17.5 to me is too high. Maybe 16? Is there really value here? Mizzou runs a play every 5 seconds. They will be trying to match Georgia score for score. This is going over unless Mizzou plays incompetently on offense and they just can't move the ball. But man, SC moved the ball on Georgia. They're just a loser team that can't finish drives. Lock is also a guy that is big play prone - one way or another. Meaning he can hit an 80 yard pass or throw a pick six. Great stuff for betting overs. I just can't back 13.5 as a quality play if Mizzou is probably gonna get 30+ in this one. The only concern to me is they are a bit one dimensional relying so much on passing it nearly down. But the flip side is that keeps the game uptempo and inflates the total. Mizzou is soft on D but they can hold Georgia below 50 and still cover here.
NOTE - number is now 14.5 - zero value now with Georgia. Everyone lay off this. Come to think of it, the team total for Georgia should be like 39. Actually, you can bet over for Georgia. But taking them -14 is stupid. If they score under 39 they aren't covering almost no matter what. But they could score 42 and still not cover. So that's the correct play in this one imo. That's if you want to take Georgia. But I like the over 63 because I think it's possible Mizzou could hold them to 35 or 38. They are at home. Odds are Georgia gets 40+ I think but it's not a lock.
Love your threads sir. Thanks for sharing! I’m taking UCF TT over 44.5. We shall see.......
Established in 1995,
BWS much respect
Hot Forum Topics
