Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:
The fact is, that besides the "clinical depression" angle and some past boxers that took their first losses. And to not believe you are getting terrible value on Nunes is just shortsighted. You can admit when you're wrong, it's okay. Can Nunes win the fight? Sure. But, to believe that the odds really don't matter because you have a dog, all be it slight dog is just not correct. And anyone that knows enough about sports betting understands that. And don't compare this to a random Army game you won because it really isn't the same thing at all.
Folks, as you can see, he is still hung up on the "value" of Nunes.
And I keep telling him the value is in the capping, not the line. And this is why gamblers toil their entire lives as degenerates. They think they know everything about how to cap but cannot and will not change their philosophy behind that capping.
And Papa is a perfect example of this giving essential but non-traditional viewpoints on capping a quick handwave.
Let me assure you, if Nunes is a dog right down to +105 in this fight that is a bettable side. Whether it be +1050 or +105, if you are on the Nunes side, you have "value" Papa is hung up on.
This is very hard for Papa to understand because his brain doesn't operate the way mine does when it comes to capping. We cap in different worlds. He veiws a ML drop from +1050 to +105 as "lost" money where I view any +ML as a winnable and moreover bettable side.
That is because +1050 is imaginary. It has nothing to do with the real world and is set by the books. Public cash flows then shift it just like every line ever set. He's like a meth addict who needs to get in on the bet at the earliest possible time for the most (imaginary) value and I look at the line, go and cap the game/fight very deliberately and calmly for however long it takes and see if the line has crossed my acceptable threshold. And my threshold was +ML on Nunes and I got that and a 35% ROI on top of my original bet.
He cannot see this and sacrifices capping for lines. Massive mistake. This is exactly what the books want you to do. Like sharks in a feeding frenzy, they want you to lose your bearings and rage through blood soaked water for the carcass of seal blubber. I calmly look at the line cap the game and if I come back to an unacceptable line I walk away.
Meanwhile he'll come off a Rousey Nunes fight because of lost "value" down from +1050 to +105 and then he'll go bet the first half of the Clippers Spurs after 5 minutes of capping thinking he got more value there! Amazing! I've seen so many gamblers do this.
Look at the line, Cap the game/fight accordingly and then reassess calmly as the public goes bonkers over all these line shifts. I did this with the Army game and was never under the "lost value" number of 5.5. Very hard for Papa to understand. It's clear he can't and won't at this point and that's ok. We'll calmly collect our winnings (and all that lost value...lol) and move on to the next winner.
Keep reaching, Scal.
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