2016 Record: 35-17
The Pick:
AMANDA NUNES +135 over RONDA ROUSEY
Fight is on 12/30/16.
(Penn State...That should fill our CFB posting quota.)
Remember our last Rock Bottom Surprise?
St. John's won by 20, 95-75, over Tulane as 4.5 point favorites.
In that game we used a Rock Bottom loss to Delaware State bounce back against Tulane.
In this Rock Bottom Surprise, we will do the opposite.
This Rock Bottom angle states that you hit the bottom so hard, you won't be able to get up.
And that is exactly what happened to Ronda Rousey in the women's division in the UFC when she fought Holly Holm.
Her career arc reminds me so much of Mike Tyson before he lost to Evander Holyfield. Although not perfectly analogous, Tyson fought a bunch of tomato cans after his release from prison:
Peter McNeely - The guy should have been tossing pizza dough at 3 Brothers Pizzeria
Buster Mathis Jr. - Speaking of pizza dough, Mathis brought an embarrassing dough boy physique to the ring and got destroyed.
Frank Bruno - Physically a specimen, but more a gentlemen of the British Royal court than a fighter.
Bruce Seldon - Literally took a dive in this fight. YES it was fixed. Not sure why this isn't talked about more.
Rousey fought much of the same early in her career (tomato cans) and then the competition got a bit stout. But unlike boxing, Rousey was able to topple her toughest fighters with submission moves, in some cases, under 20 seconds. She left those fights thinking she was invisible and for good reason: she was undefeated and getting world wide press acclaim.
And then came her Evander Holyfield, Holly Holm.
And like Holyfield, Holm won for one reason: she knew how to punch with the best of them. She was a boxer and she mercilessly pounded the unprepared Rousey.
And THAT is where Nunes has the advantage. Nunes can land a punch with the best of them as well. And she has a ground game. The ONLY way Rousey can win this fight is to get Nunes on the ground and get a sneaky submission, much like she's done to many others.
Here's the problem: the woman's division has evolved since Rousey's defeat.
Nunes is a smart fighter who knows Rousey wants her on the ground ASAP. That is why she will stand face to face with her and use her punching power to bludgeon Rousey the same way Holm did. This will weaken Rousey to the point when she gets to the ground, she won't have enough to make Nunes tap out because her submission move will be irrelevant as Nunes continues to beat her.
Remember the following:
It has been 13 months since Rousey's last fight. Why?
Rousey was so destroyed after the last fight, she needed MONTHS for her TEETH to set back in.
Her words not mine: It may be 3 to 6 months before I can eat an apple, let alone take impact.
And NOW she gets back in the ring with the CHAMP who can punch with the best of them.
And there is another angle here:
It's the "Fading Clinical Depression" angle.
There is no question Rousey is clinically depressed. Who goes on a talk show and admits to suicidal thoughts if they are not? Who walks out of press conferences without saying a word if they are not? Remember, this was the most talked about female fighter in the world and now she hasn't been heard publicly except for an interview here and there in over a year. She soaked up every minute of that fame. Now she wants none of it.
And this is what depression does. It grabs you, puts you in a deep black hole and doesn't let you escape.
And worse, as many here know because I can tell quite a few posters are clinically depressed, it sucks the life from you. All of your energy whittles away day after day where even the most routine activities become laborious.
And this is before a fight that requires you to be at the top of your game physically, mentally and performance-wise? Wow. That is a tall order.
Did you all see Rousey leave that press conference without saying a word? Depression. Leaving the limelight ASAP to get to a safer space. Very obvious. Who will deny this?
And Rousey is going into this fight when the last hit she took was a kick that should have ended her career and in a frame of mind where I guarantee it is near impossible just to get out of bed every morning?
No. It is a good story. I WANT her to win. But when it comes to a choice while handicapping, Nunes is the pick.
Because this line should be reversed. Rousey does not even DESERVE to fight for the title and fights here because of name recognition only. Knowledgeable UFC posters here will more than admit this.
So I will take +100 and then a 35% return on top of that because the line-setters cater to the public cash flow which is heavily Rousey. But the evidence speaks for itself. Take the better, more mentally healthy fighter, who is the Champ for a reason, to win when all is said and done against a fighter with 13 months off and has been blessed with the gift of a title fight again. This is no Michael Phelps story here folks.
I'd like to see her get up from Rock Bottom and she will: In the pro wrestling ring and perhaps on the big screen, but not on 12/30 in the octagon.
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